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Ensemble Kalman methods are widely used for state estimation in the geophysical sciences. Their success stems from the fact that they take an underlying (possibly noisy) dynamical system as a black box to provide a systematic,…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2024-10-10 Edoardo Calvello , Sebastian Reich , Andrew M. Stuart

We review the field of data assimilation (DA) from a Bayesian perspective and show that, in addition to its by now common application to state estimation, DA may be used for model selection. An important special case of the latter is the…

Applications · Statistics 2017-04-05 Alberto Carrassi , Marc Bocquet , Alexis Hannart , Michael Ghil

This paper introduces the ensemble directional Kalman filter (EnDKF), an ensemble-based Kalman filtering approach for pose tracking that jointly estimates an object's position and attitude using ideas from directional statistics. The EnDKF…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-06 Tianlu Lu , Asif Sijan , Thomas Noh , Huaijin Chen , Andrey A. Popov

Understanding pedestrian dynamics is critical for mitigating crowd-related risks and improving public safety. In this work, we propose a data-driven mesoscopic modeling framework that combines the kinetic theory of active particles with…

Physics and Society · Physics 2026-05-29 Santiago Rosa , Manuel Pulido , Orlando Billoni , Juan Martín Guerrieri , Juan Pablo Agnelli

Monitoring carbon dioxide (CO2) injected and stored in subsurface reservoirs is critical for avoiding failure scenarios and enables real-time optimization of CO2 injection rates. Sequential Bayesian data assimilation (DA) is a statistical…

Geophysics · Physics 2024-10-22 Grant Bruer , Abhinav Prakash Gahlot , Edmond Chow , Felix Herrmann

In Wang & Pan (J. Fluid Mech., vol. 918, A19, 2021), the authors developed the first ensemble-based data assimilation (DA) capability for the reconstruction and forecast of ocean surface waves, namely the EnKF-HOS method coupling an…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2022-10-12 Guangyao Wang , Jinfeng Zhang , Yuxiang Ma , Qinghe Zhang , Zhilin Li , Yulin Pan

Reduced rank nonlinear filters are increasingly utilized in data assimilation of geophysical flows, but often require a set of ensemble forward simulations to estimate forecast covariance. On the other hand, predictor-corrector type nudging…

Computational Physics · Physics 2020-08-26 Suraj Pawar , Shady E. Ahmed , Omer San , Adil Rasheed , Ionel M. Navon

Many data-science problems can be formulated as an inverse problem, where the parameters are estimated by minimizing a proper loss function. When complicated black-box models are involved, derivative-free optimization tools are often…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2021-10-19 Neil K. Chada , Xin T. Tong

Heavy tails is a common feature of filtering distributions that results from the nonlinear dynamical and observation processes as well as the uncertainty from physical sensors. In these settings, the Kalman filter and its ensemble version -…

Computation · Statistics 2023-10-16 Mathieu Le Provost , Ricardo Baptista , Jeff D. Eldredge , Youssef Marzouk

Data assimilation techniques are crucial for accurately tracking complex dynamical systems by integrating observational data with numerical forecasts. Recently, score-based data assimilation methods emerged as powerful tools for…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-03-03 Pengpeng Xiao , Phillip Si , Peng Chen

The performance of ensemble-based data assimilation techniques that estimate the state of a dynamical system from partial observations depends crucially on the prescribed uncertainty of the model dynamics and of the observations. These are…

Computation · Statistics 2021-02-24 Tadeo Javier Cocucci , Manuel Pulido , Magdalena Lucini , Pierre Tandeo

As the severity and occurrence of flood events tend to intensify with climate change, the need for flood forecasting capability increases. In this regard, the Flood Detection, Alert and rapid Mapping (FloodDAM) project, funded by Space for…

Image and Video Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2023-01-25 Thanh Huy Nguyen , Sophie Ricci , Andrea Piacentini , Christophe Fatras , Peter Kettig , Gwendoline Blanchet , Santiago Pena Luque , Simon Baillarin

In this work, we study the emergence of sparsity and multiway structures in second-order statistical characterizations of dynamical processes governed by partial differential equations (PDEs). We consider several state-of-the-art multiway…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-12-09 Yu Wang , Alfred Hero

We design and analyse the performance of a multilevel ensemble Kalman filter method (MLEnKF) for filtering settings where the underlying state-space model is an infinite-dimensional spatio-temporal process. We consider underlying models…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2020-03-11 Alexey Chernov , Håkon Hoel , Kody J. H. Law , Fabio Nobile , Raul Tempone

This paper uses a probabilistic approach to analyze the converge of an ensemble Kalman filter solution to an exact Kalman filter solution in the simplest possible setting, the scalar case, as it allows us to build upon a rich literature of…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2020-03-31 Andrey A Popov , Adrian Sandu

A Kalman filter based sequential estimator is presented in the present work. The estimator is integrated in the structure of segregated solvers for the analysis of incompressible flows. This technique provides an augmented flow state…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2017-02-22 Marcello Meldi , Alexandre Poux

The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is a Monte Carlo approximation of the Kalman filter for high dimensional linear Gaussian state space models. EnKF methods have also been developed for parameter inference of static Bayesian models with a…

This paper is concerned with optimal control problems for control systems in continuous time, and interacting particle system methods designed to construct approximate control solutions. Particular attention is given to the linear quadratic…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-07-11 Anant Joshi , Amirhossein Taghvaei , Prashant G. Mehta , Sean P. Meyn

Variational inference (VI) combined with Bayesian nonlinear filtering produces state-of-the-art results for latent time-series modeling. A body of recent work has focused on sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) and its variants, e.g., forward…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-11-10 Tsuyoshi Ishizone , Tomoyuki Higuchi , Kazuyuki Nakamura

Several localized versions of the ensemble Kalman filter have been proposed. Although tests applying such schemes have proven them to be extremely promising, a full basic understanding of the rationale and limitations of localization is…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2015-05-30 Young-noh Yoon , Edward Ott , Istvan Szunyogh