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We develop new multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) methods to estimate the expectation of the smallest eigenvalue of a stochastic convection-diffusion operator with random coefficients. The MLMC method is based on a sequence of finite element…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2024-02-13 Tiangang Cui , Hans De Sterck , Alexander D. Gilbert , Stanislav Polishchuk , Robert Scheichl

We develop a multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) framework for uncertainty quantification with Monte Carlo dropout. Treating dropout masks as a source of epistemic randomness, we define a fidelity hierarchy by the number of stochastic forward…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-21 Aaron Pim , Tristan Pryer

In this article we consider computing expectations w.r.t.~probability laws associated to a certain class of stochastic systems. In order to achieve such a task, one must not only resort to numerical approximation of the expectation, but…

Computation · Statistics 2017-10-30 Ajay Jasra , Kengo Kamatani , Kody Law , Yan Zhou

In this article we consider the smoothing problem for hidden Markov models (HMM). Given a hidden Markov chain $\{X_n\}_{n\geq 0}$ and observations $\{Y_n\}_{n\geq 0}$, our objective is to compute…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-04-20 Jeremie Houssineau , Ajay Jasra , Sumeetpal S. Singh

The Multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) method has been applied successfully in a wide range of settings since its first introduction by Giles (2008). When using only two levels, the method can be viewed as a kind of control-variate approach to…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2024-05-07 Yu Li , Antony Ware

As the size of engineered systems grows, problems in reliability theory can become computationally challenging, often due to the combinatorial growth in the cut sets. In this paper we demonstrate how Multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) - a…

Computation · Statistics 2017-03-14 Louis J. M. Aslett , Tigran Nagapetyan , Sebastian J. Vollmer

In this work, we consider the problem of estimating the probability distribution, the quantile or the conditional expectation above the quantile, the so called conditional-value-at-risk, of output quantities of complex random differential…

Computation · Statistics 2023-05-23 Quentin Ayoul-Guilmard , Sundar Ganesh , Sebastian Krumscheid , Fabio Nobile

This paper considers the problem of optimizing the average tracking error for an elliptic partial differential equation with an uncertain lognormal diffusion coefficient. In particular, the application of the multilevel quasi-Monte Carlo…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2021-09-30 Philipp A. Guth , Andreas Van Barel

In this work, we present, analyze, and implement a class of Multi-Level Markov chain Monte Carlo (ML-MCMC) algorithms based on independent Metropolis-Hastings proposals for Bayesian inverse problems. In this context, the likelihood function…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2021-05-06 Juan Pablo Madrigal-Cianci , Fabio Nobile , Raul Tempone

Sliding mode control (SMC) is a robust and computationally efficient model-based controller design technique for highly nonlinear systems, in the presence of model and external uncertainties. However, the implementation of the conventional…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2018-05-18 Mohammad Reza Amini , Mahdi Shahbakhti , Selina Pan

In the first part of this paper we study approximations of trajectories of Piecewise Deter-ministic Processes (PDP) when the flow is not explicit by the thinning method. We also establish a strong error estimate for PDPs as well as a weak…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-02-10 Vincent Lemaire , Michèle Thieullen , Nicolas Thomas

The identification of parameters in mathematical models using noisy observations is a common task in uncertainty quantification. We employ the framework of Bayesian inversion: we combine monitoring and observational data with prior…

Computation · Statistics 2018-05-11 Jonas Latz , Iason Papaioannou , Elisabeth Ullmann

We consider the computational efficiency of Monte Carlo (MC) and Multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) methods applied to partial differential equations with random coefficients. These arise, for example, in groundwater flow modelling, where a…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2024-12-12 Anastasia Istratuca , Aretha Teckentrup

Recently, Stochastic Gradient Markov Chain Monte Carlo (SG-MCMC) methods have been proposed for scaling up Monte Carlo computations to large data problems. Whilst these approaches have proven useful in many applications, vanilla SG-MCMC…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-12-13 Umut Şimşekli , Roland Badeau , A. Taylan Cemgil , Gaël Richard

Recent advances in Bayesian learning with large-scale data have witnessed emergence of stochastic gradient MCMC algorithms (SG-MCMC), such as stochastic gradient Langevin dynamics (SGLD), stochastic gradient Hamiltonian MCMC (SGHMC), and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-10-24 Changyou Chen , Nan Ding , Lawrence Carin

In this article we develop a multi-grid multi-level Monte Carlo (MGMLMC) method for the stochastic Stokes-Darcy interface model with random hydraulic conductivity both in the porous media domain and on the interface. Because the randomness…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2019-03-07 Zhipeng Yang , Xiaoming He , Li Zhang , Ju Ming

We propose a novel Continuation Multi Level Monte Carlo (CMLMC) algorithm for weak approximation of stochastic models. The CMLMC algorithm solves the given approximation problem for a sequence of decreasing tolerances, ending when the…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2015-05-22 Nathan Collier , Abdul-Lateef Haji-Ali , Fabio Nobile , Erik von Schwerin , Raul Tempone

In this paper we consider sequential joint state and static parameter estimation given discrete time observations associated to a partially observed stochastic partial differential equation (SPDE). It is assumed that one can only estimate…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2020-09-11 Yaxian Xu , Ajay Jasra , Kody J. H. Law

In this paper we propose a general framework for the uncertainty quantification of quantities of interest for high-contrast single-phase flow problems. It is based on the generalized multiscale finite element method (GMsFEM) and multilevel…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2015-06-18 Yalchin Efendiev , Bangti Jin , Michael Presho , Xiaosi Tan

In this paper, we present a multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) version of the Stochastic Gradient (SG) method for optimization under uncertainty, in order to tackle Optimal Control Problems (OCP) where the constraints are described in the form…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2019-12-30 Matthieu Martin , Fabio Nobile , Panagiotis Tsilifis