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While anomaly detection in time series has been an active area of research for several years, most recent approaches employ an inadequate evaluation criterion leading to an inflated F1 score. We show that a rudimentary Random Guess method…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-03-11 Keval Doshi , Shatha Abudalou , Yasin Yilmaz

Despite recent progress in time-series foundation models, challenges persist in improving representation learning and adapting to diverse downstream tasks. We introduce a General Time-series Model (GTM), which advances representation…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-13 Cheng He , Xu Huang , Gangwei Jiang , Zhaoyi Li , Defu Lian , Hong Xie , Enhong Chen , Xijie Liang , Zengrong Zheng , Patrick P. C. Lee

Long-term time series forecasting (LTSF) involves predicting a large number of future values of a time series based on the past values. This is an essential task in a wide range of domains including weather forecasting, stock market…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2025-03-19 Hari Hara Suthan Chittoor , Paul Robert Griffin , Ariel Neufeld , Jayne Thompson , Mile Gu

Despite the notable advancements in numerous Transformer-based models, the task of long multi-horizon time series forecasting remains a persistent challenge, especially towards explainability. Focusing on commonly used saliency maps in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-09-18 Nghia Duong-Trung , Duc-Manh Nguyen , Danh Le-Phuoc

Transformers have achieved superior performances in many tasks in natural language processing and computer vision, which also triggered great interest in the time series community. Among multiple advantages of Transformers, the ability to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-05-15 Qingsong Wen , Tian Zhou , Chaoli Zhang , Weiqi Chen , Ziqing Ma , Junchi Yan , Liang Sun

The recent surge in Time Series Foundation Models has rapidly advanced the field, yet the heterogeneous training setups across studies make it difficult to attribute improvements to architectural innovations versus data engineering. In this…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-09 Yunshi Wen , Wesley M. Gifford , Chandra Reddy , Lam M. Nguyen , Jayant Kalagnanam , Anak Agung Julius

Time Series Forecasting (TSF) is used to predict the target variables at a future time point based on the learning from previous time points. To keep the problem tractable, learning methods use data from a fixed length window in the past as…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-04-26 Jimeng Shi , Mahek Jain , Giri Narasimhan

Transformed Gaussian Processes (TGPs) are stochastic processes specified by transforming samples from the joint distribution from a prior process (typically a GP) using an invertible transformation; increasing the flexibility of the base…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-03 Francisco Javier Sáez-Maldonado , Juan Maroñas , Daniel Hernández-Lobato

The Extended Long Short-Term Memory (xLSTM) network has demonstrated strong capability in modeling complex long-term dependencies in time series data. Despite its success, the deterministic architecture of xLSTM limits its representational…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-23 Zihao Wang , Yunjie Li , Lingmin Zan , Zheng Gong , Mengtao Zhu

Recently, diffusion probabilistic models have attracted attention in generative time series forecasting due to their remarkable capacity to generate high-fidelity samples. However, the effective utilization of their strong modeling ability…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-19 Xinyao Fan , Yueying Wu , Chang Xu , Yuhao Huang , Weiqing Liu , Jiang Bian

In recent work on time-series prediction, Transformers and even large language models have garnered significant attention due to their strong capabilities in sequence modeling. However, in practical deployments, time-series prediction often…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-17 Wenxuan Xie , Fanpu Cao

Data augmentation is gaining importance across various aspects of time series analysis, from forecasting to classification and anomaly detection tasks. We introduce the Latent Generative Transformer Augmentation (L-GTA) model, a generative…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-01 Luis Roque , Carlos Soares , Vitor Cerqueira , Luis Torgo

This paper introduces an Artificial Intelligence (AI) foundation model for time series in engineering applications, where causal operations are required for real-time monitoring and control. Since engineering time series are governed by…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-10-03 Lang Tong , Xinyi Wang

Anomaly detection in multivariate time series is a central challenge in industrial monitoring, as failures frequently arise from complex temporal dynamics and cross-sensor interactions. While recent deep learning models, including graph…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-21 Pooyan Khosravinia , João Gama , Bruno Veloso

Transformer-based architectures have achieved remarkable success in natural language processing and computer vision. However, their performance in multivariate long-term forecasting often falls short compared to simpler linear baselines.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-09 Dizhen Liang

Time series forecasting is a subject of significant scientific and industrial importance. Despite the widespread utilization of forecasting methods, there is a dearth of research aimed at comprehending the conditions under which these…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-23 Moisés Santos , André de Carvalho , Carlos Soares

Transformers are the de-facto choice for sequence modelling, yet their quadratic self-attention and weak temporal bias can make long-range forecasting both expensive and brittle. We introduce FreezeTST, a lightweight hybrid that interleaves…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-21 Pradeep Singh , Mehak Sharma , Anupriya Dey , Balasubramanian Raman

Multivariate time series forecasting (MTSF) is a fundamental problem in numerous real-world applications. Recently, Transformer has become the de facto solution for MTSF, especially for the long-term cases. However, except for the one…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-12-07 Zanwei Zhou , Ruizhe Zhong , Chen Yang , Yan Wang , Xiaokang Yang , Wei Shen

Large pre-trained models excel in zero/few-shot learning for language and vision tasks but face challenges in multivariate time series (TS) forecasting due to diverse data characteristics. Consequently, recent research efforts have focused…

Transparent models, which provide inherently interpretable predictions, are receiving significant attention in high-stakes domains. However, despite much real-world data being collected as time series, there is a lack of studies on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-17 Minkyu Kim , Suan Lee , Jinho Kim