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Uncertainty estimation aims to evaluate the confidence of a trained deep neural network. However, existing uncertainty estimation approaches rely on low-dimensional distributional assumptions and thus suffer from the high dimensionality of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-26 Tsai Hor Chan , Kin Wai Lau , Jiajun Shen , Guosheng Yin , Lequan Yu

Deep neural networks (NNs) are powerful black box predictors that have recently achieved impressive performance on a wide spectrum of tasks. Quantifying predictive uncertainty in NNs is a challenging and yet unsolved problem. Bayesian NNs,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-11-07 Balaji Lakshminarayanan , Alexander Pritzel , Charles Blundell

Density ratio estimation serves as an important technique in the unsupervised machine learning toolbox. However, such ratios are difficult to estimate for complex, high-dimensional data, particularly when the densities of interest are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-07-07 Kristy Choi , Madeline Liao , Stefano Ermon

Recent studies have shown that ensemble approaches could not only improve accuracy and but also estimate model uncertainty in deep learning. However, it requires a large number of parameters according to the increase of ensemble models for…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2020-05-25 Hong Joo Lee , Seong Tae Kim , Hakmin Lee , Nassir Navab , Yong Man Ro

Neural networks (NNs) lack measures of "reliability" estimation that would enable reasoning over their predictions. Despite the vital importance, especially in areas of human well-being and health, state-of-the-art uncertainty estimation…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-02-12 Lorena Qendro , Jagmohan Chauhan , Alberto Gil C. P. Ramos , Cecilia Mascolo

Traversability estimation in rugged, unstructured environments remains a challenging problem in field robotics. Often, the need for precise, accurate traversability estimation is in direct opposition to the limited sensing and compute…

Robotics · Computer Science 2024-07-12 Samuel Triest , David D. Fan , Sebastian Scherer , Ali-Akbar Agha-Mohammadi

Deep neural networks(NNs) have achieved impressive performance, often exceed human performance on many computer vision tasks. However, one of the most challenging issues that still remains is that NNs are overconfident in their predictions,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-12-30 Chanwoo Park , Jae Myung Kim , Seok Hyeon Ha , Jungwoo Lee

Deep autoregressive models compute point likelihood estimates of individual data points. However, many applications (i.e., database cardinality estimation) require estimating range densities, a capability that is under-explored by current…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-07-14 Eric Liang , Zongheng Yang , Ion Stoica , Pieter Abbeel , Yan Duan , Xi Chen

It is desirable to have accurate uncertainty estimation from a single deterministic forward-pass model, as traditional methods for uncertainty quantification are computationally expensive. However, this is difficult because single…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-08-22 Frederik Boe Hüttel , Filipe Rodrigues , Francisco Câmara Pereira

Deep learning has emerged as a promising paradigm to give access to highly accurate predictions of molecular and materials properties. A common short-coming shared by current approaches, however, is that neural networks only give point…

Computational Physics · Physics 2023-05-10 Albert Zhu , Simon Batzner , Albert Musaelian , Boris Kozinsky

Deep neural networks (DNNs) have made a revolution in numerous fields during the last decade. However, in tasks with high safety requirements, such as medical or autonomous driving applications, providing an assessment of the models…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-11-20 Omer Achrack , Raizy Kellerman , Ouriel Barzilay

Traditional regression and prediction tasks often only provide deterministic point estimates. To estimate the distribution or uncertainty of the response variable, traditional methods either assume that the posterior distribution of samples…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-01-08 Daojun Liang , Haixia Zhang , Dongfeng Yuan

Neural networks make accurate predictions but often fail to provide reliable uncertainty estimates, especially under covariate distribution shifts between training and testing. To address this problem, we propose a Bayesian framework for…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-12-22 Yuli Slavutsky , David M. Blei

Dealing with distribution shifts is one of the central challenges for modern machine learning. One fundamental situation is the covariate shift, where the input distributions of data change from training to testing stages while the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-28 Yu-Jie Zhang , Zhen-Yu Zhang , Peng Zhao , Masashi Sugiyama

The recent decade has seen an enormous rise in the popularity of deep learning and neural networks. These algorithms have broken many previous records and achieved remarkable results. Their outstanding performance has significantly sped up…

Camera localization, i.e., camera pose regression, represents an important task in computer vision since it has many practical applications such as in the context of intelligent vehicles and their localization. Having reliable estimates of…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2023-03-10 Matteo Vaghi , Augusto Luis Ballardini , Simone Fontana , Domenico Giorgio Sorrenti

In a previous article, a least square regression estimation procedure was proposed: first, we condiser a family of functions and study the properties of an estimator in every unidimensionnal model defined by one of these functions; we then…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-06-13 Pierre Alquier

Detection Transformer (DETR) and its variants show strong performance on object detection, a key task for autonomous systems. However, a critical limitation of these models is that their confidence scores only reflect semantic uncertainty,…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2026-03-03 Yutong Yang , Katarina Popović , Julian Wiederer , Markus Braun , Vasileios Belagiannis , Bin Yang

Density regression provides a flexible strategy for modeling the distribution of a response variable $Y$ given predictors $\mathbf{X}=(X_1,\ldots,X_p)$ by letting that the conditional density of $Y$ given $\mathbf{X}$ as a completely…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-01-07 Weining Shen , Subhashis Ghosal

One of the fundamental problems in machine learning is the estimation of a probability distribution from data. Many techniques have been proposed to study the structure of data, most often building around the assumption that observations…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2013-02-22 Oren Rippel , Ryan Prescott Adams