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Accurate estimation of the frequency and magnitude of successive extreme events in energy demand is critical for strategic resource planning. Traditional approaches based on extreme value theory (EVT) are typically limited to modelling…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-09-10 Grace Burtenshaw , Joe Lane , Meagan Carney

Precipitation nowcasting is a short-range forecast of rain/snow (up to 2 hours), often displayed on top of the geographical map by the weather service. Modern precipitation nowcasting algorithms rely on the extrapolation of observations by…

Motivated by the analysis of extreme rainfall data, we introduce a general Bayesian hierarchical model for estimating the probability distribution of extreme values of intermittent random sequences, a common problem in geophysical and…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-05-26 Enrico Zorzetto , Antonio Canale , Marco Marani

Time Series Forecasting (TSF) is a widely researched topic with broad applications in weather forecasting, traffic control, and stock price prediction. Extreme values in time series often significantly impact human and natural systems, but…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-12 Jincheng Wang , Yue Gao

Accurately forecasting extreme rainfall is notoriously difficult, but is also ever more crucial for society as climate change increases the frequency of such extremes. Global numerical weather prediction models often fail to capture…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-03-24 Ilan Price , Stephan Rasp

Precipitation nowcasting is crucial for mitigating the impacts of severe weather events and supporting daily activities. Conventional models predominantly relying on radar data have limited performance in predicting cases with complex…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2024-09-17 Çağlar Küçük , Aitor Atencia , Markus Dabernig

This paper presents a deep learning architecture for nowcasting of precipitation almost globally every 30 min with a 4-hour lead time. The architecture fuses a U-Net and a convolutional long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network and is…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-06 Reyhaneh Rahimi , Praveen Ravirathinam , Ardeshir Ebtehaj , Ali Behrangi , Jackson Tan , Vipin Kumar

Modeling extreme precipitation and temperature is vital for understanding the impacts of climate change, as hazards like intense rainfall and record-breaking temperatures can result in severe consequences, including floods, droughts, and…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-13 Remy MacDonald , Benjamin Seiyon Lee , John Foley , Justin Lee

A proper channel modeling methodology that characterizes the statistics of extreme events is key in the design of a system at an ultra-reliable regime of operation. The strict constraint of ultra-reliability corresponds to the packet error…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-01-12 Niloofar Mehrnia , Sinem Coleri

Quantifying the impacts of anthropogenic global warming requires accurate Earth system model (ESM) simulations. Statistical bias correction and downscaling can be applied to reduce errors and increase the resolution of ESMs. However,…

Geophysics · Physics 2024-06-24 Philipp Hess , Niklas Boers

Precipitation nowcasting plays a pivotal role in socioeconomic sectors, especially in severe convective weather warnings. Although notable progress has been achieved by approaches mining the spatiotemporal correlations with deep learning,…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-10-10 Junchao Gong , Siwei Tu , Weidong Yang , Ben Fei , Kun Chen , Wenlong Zhang , Xiaokang Yang , Wanli Ouyang , Lei Bai

Short-term rainfall forecasting, also known as precipitation nowcasting has become a potentially fundamental technology impacting significant real-world applications ranging from flight safety, rainstorm alerts to farm irrigation timings.…

Neural and Evolutionary Computing · Computer Science 2018-10-25 Maitreya Patel , Anery Patel , Dr. Ranendu Ghosh

Extreme rainfall over the Indian monsoon region poses severe societal and infrastructural risks but remains difficult to predict at daily time scales due to stochastic convective triggering and multiscale atmospheric interactions. While…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2026-02-04 Arun Govind Neelan

An ensemble post-processing method is developed to improve the probabilistic forecasts of extreme precipitation events across the conterminous United States (CONUS). The method combines a 3-D Vision Transformer (ViT) for bias correction…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-09-17 Yingkai Sha , Ryan A. Sobash , David John Gagne

Accurate rainfall forecasting, particularly for extreme events, remains a significant challenge in climatology and the Earth system. This paper presents novel physics-informed Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) combined with extreme-value…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-25 Kiattikun Chobtham , Kanoksri Sarinnapakorn , Kritanai Torsri , Prattana Deeprasertkul , Jirawan Kamma

The Ultra-Reliable Low-Latency Communications (URLLC) paradigm in sixth-generation (6G) systems heavily relies on precise channel modeling, especially when dealing with rare and extreme events within wireless communication channels. This…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-01-22 Parmida Valiahdi , Sinem Coleri

In this work, we propose a simulation-based estimation approach using generative neural networks to determine dependencies of precipitation maxima and their underlying uncertainty in time and space. Within the common framework of max-stable…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-01 Christopher Bülte , Lisa Leimenstoll , Melanie Schienle

The purpose of this paper is to illustrate new techniques for computing multiday extreme precipitation taken from recent theoretical advancements in extreme value theory in the framework of dynamical systems, using historical precipitation…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2024-03-18 Ruethaichanok Kardkasem , Meagan Carney

Weather radar data are critical for nowcasting and an integral component of numerical weather prediction models. While weather radar data provide valuable information at high resolution, their ground-based nature limits their availability,…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2024-03-07 Çağlar Küçük , Apostolos Giannakos , Stefan Schneider , Alexander Jann

With the goal of making high-resolution forecasts of regional rainfall, precipitation nowcasting has become an important and fundamental technology underlying various public services ranging from rainstorm warnings to flight safety.…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2017-10-06 Xingjian Shi , Zhihan Gao , Leonard Lausen , Hao Wang , Dit-Yan Yeung , Wai-kin Wong , Wang-chun Woo