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Deep learning-based object pose estimators are often unreliable and overconfident especially when the input image is outside the training domain, for instance, with sim2real transfer. Efficient and robust uncertainty quantification (UQ) in…

Deep learning-based surrogate models have demonstrated remarkable advantages over classical solvers in terms of speed, often achieving speedups of 10 to 1000 times over traditional partial differential equation (PDE) solvers. However, a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-14 Tailin Wu , Willie Neiswanger , Hongtao Zheng , Stefano Ermon , Jure Leskovec

This paper addresses the challenging task of guide wire navigation in cardiovascular interventions, focusing on the parameter estimation of a guide wire system using Ensemble Kalman Inversion (EKI) with a subsampling technique. The EKI uses…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2023-12-12 Matei Hanu , Jürgen Hesser , Guido Kanschat , Javier Moviglia , Claudia Schillings , Jan Stallkamp

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) techniques are frequently used to ascertain output variability in systems with parametric uncertainty. Traditional algorithms for UQ are either system-agnostic and slow (such as Monte Carlo) or fast with…

Computation · Statistics 2015-03-19 Tuhin Sahai , Jose Miguel Pasini

Classical problems in computational physics such as data-driven forecasting and signal reconstruction from sparse sensors have recently seen an explosion in deep neural network (DNN) based algorithmic approaches. However, most DNN models do…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-02-21 Romit Maulik , Romain Egele , Krishnan Raghavan , Prasanna Balaprakash

In this paper, we describe an open source Python toolkit named Uncertainty Quantification 360 (UQ360) for the uncertainty quantification of AI models. The goal of this toolkit is twofold: first, to provide a broad range of capabilities to…

Large Language Diffusion Models (LLDMs) are emerging as an alternative to autoregressive models, offering faster inference through higher parallelism. Similar to autoregressive LLMs, they remain prone to hallucinations, making reliable…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-05-15 Artem Vazhentsev , Vladislav Smirnov , David Li , Maxim Panov , Timothy Baldwin , Artem Shelmanov

The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is a Monte Carlo approximation of the Kalman filter for high dimensional linear Gaussian state space models. EnKF methods have also been developed for parameter inference of static Bayesian models with a…

Uncertainty quantification is crucial to assess prediction quality of a machine learning model. In the case of Extreme Learning Machines (ELM), most methods proposed in the literature make strong assumptions on the data, ignore the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-11-04 Fabian Guignard , Federico Amato , Mikhail Kanevski

Estimating uncertainty is at the core of performing scientific measurements in HEP: a measurement is not useful without an estimate of its uncertainty. The goal of uncertainty quantification (UQ) is inextricably linked to the question, "how…

High Energy Physics - Experiment · Physics 2022-11-02 Thomas Y. Chen , Biprateep Dey , Aishik Ghosh , Michael Kagan , Brian Nord , Nesar Ramachandra

Reinforcement learning agents are faced with two types of uncertainty. Epistemic uncertainty stems from limited data and is useful for exploration, whereas aleatoric uncertainty arises from stochastic environments and must be accounted for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-09-10 William R. Clements , Bastien Van Delft , Benoît-Marie Robaglia , Reda Bahi Slaoui , Sébastien Toth

This work demonstrates the ability to produce readily interpretable statistical metrics for model fit, fixed effects covariance coefficients, and prediction confidence. Importantly, this work compares 4 suitable and commonly applied…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-11-30 Alex Treacher , Kevin Nguyen , Dylan Owens , Daniel Heitjan , Albert Montillo

While many algorithmic extensions to Deep Q-Networks (DQN) have been proposed, there remains limited understanding of how different improvements interact. In particular, multi-step and ensemble style extensions have shown promise in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-09 Adrian Ly , Richard Dazeley , Peter Vamplew , Francisco Cruz , Sunil Aryal

We propose a rigorous framework for Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) in which the UQ objectives and the assumptions/information set are brought to the forefront. This framework, which we call \emph{Optimal Uncertainty Quantification} (OUQ),…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-05-20 Houman Owhadi , Clint Scovel , Timothy John Sullivan , Mike McKerns , Michael Ortiz

Trustworthy depression prediction based on deep learning, incorporating both predictive reliability and algorithmic fairness across diverse demographic groups, is crucial for clinical application. Recently, achieving reliable depression…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-01 Yonghong Li , Zheng Zhang , Xiuzhuang Zhou

Deep learning has the potential to dramatically impact navigation and tracking state estimation problems critical to autonomous vehicles and robotics. Measurement uncertainties in state estimation systems based on Kalman and other Bayes…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-16 Rebecca L. Russell , Christopher Reale

Quality-Diversity (QD) has demonstrated potential in discovering collections of diverse solutions to optimisation problems. Originally designed for deterministic environments, QD has been extended to noisy, stochastic, or uncertain domains…

Neural and Evolutionary Computing · Computer Science 2025-02-11 Manon Flageat , Johann Huber , François Helenon , Stephane Doncieux , Antoine Cully

OOD detection has become more pertinent with advances in network design and increased task complexity. Identifying which parts of the data a given network is misclassifying has become as valuable as the network's overall performance. We can…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-03-05 Rishi Singhal , Srinath Srinivasan

Ensemble Kalman inversion (EKI) is a technique for the numerical solution of inverse problems. A great advantage of the EKI's ensemble approach is that derivatives are not required in its implementation. But theoretically speaking, EKI's…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2023-05-03 Xin T. Tong , Matthias Morzfeld

Offline reinforcement learning learns policies from fixed datasets without further environment interaction. A key challenge in this setting is epistemic uncertainty, arising from limited or biased data coverage, particularly when the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-09 Abhilash Reddy Chenreddy , Erick Delage
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