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Area-specific causal inference is important in many policy and survey applications, where the goal is to evaluate treatment effects for small geographic or demographic domains. Existing causal small area estimation methods, however,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-05-06 Tsubasa Ito , Shonosuke Sugasawa

We introduce a doubly stochastic marked point process model for supervised classification problems. Regardless of the number of classes or the dimension of the feature space, the model requires only 2--3 parameters for the covariance…

Methodology · Statistics 2012-07-20 Jie Yang , Klaus Miescke , Peter McCullagh

We seek to improve estimates of the power spectrum covariance matrix from a limited number of simulations by employing a novel statistical technique known as shrinkage estimation. The shrinkage technique optimally combines an empirical…

Astrophysics · Physics 2009-11-13 Adrian C. Pope , István Szapudi

A nonlinear partial differential equation (PDE) based compartmental model of COVID-19 provides a continuous trace of infection over space and time. Finer resolutions in the spatial discretization, the inclusion of additional model…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2022-08-04 Sudhi P. V. , Victorita Dolean , Pierre Jolivet , Brandon Robinson , Jodi D. Edwards , Tetyana Kendzerska , Abhijit Sarkar

There is growing recognition in both the experimental and modelling literature of the importance of spatial structure to the dynamics of viral infections in tissues. Aided by the evolution of computing power and motivated by recent…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2025-07-08 Thomas Williams , James M. McCaw , James M. Osborne

Explosive growth in spatio-temporal data and its wide range of applications have attracted increasing interests of researchers in the statistical and machine learning fields. The spatio-temporal regression problem is of paramount importance…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-09-15 Aniruddha Rajendra Rao , Qiyao Wang , Haiyan Wang , Hamed Khorasgani , Chetan Gupta

We introduce a new approach to functional causal modeling from observational data, called Causal Generative Neural Networks (CGNN). CGNN leverages the power of neural networks to learn a generative model of the joint distribution of the…

Global pandemics, such as the recent COVID-19 crisis, highlight the need for stochastic epidemic models that can capture the randomness inherent in the spread of disease. Such models must be accompanied by methods for estimating parameters…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2026-04-13 Vincent Wieland , Nils Wassmuth , Lorenzo Contento , Martin Kühn , Jan Hasenauer

In this study, we propose a function-on-function linear quantile regression model that allows for more than one functional predictor to establish a more flexible and robust approach. The proposed model is first transformed into a…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-11-11 Ufuk Beyaztas , Han Lin Shang

The rapid finding of effective therapeutics requires the efficient use of available resources in clinical trials. The use of covariate adjustment can yield statistical estimates with improved precision, resulting in a reduction in the…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-09-10 Nicholas Williams , Michael Rosenblum , Iván Díaz

Beta regression is frequently used when the outcome variable y is bounded within a specific interval, transformed to the (0, 1) domain if necessary. However, standard beta regression cannot handle data observed at the boundary values of 0…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-17 Mingang Kim , Brent A. Kaplan , Mikhail N. Koffarnus , Christopher T. Franck

Simulation models are valuable tools for resource usage estimation and capacity planning. In many situations, reliable data is not available. We introduce the BuB simulator, which requires only the specification of plausible intervals for…

Applications · Statistics 2020-09-08 Thomas Bartz-Beielstein , Eva Bartz , Frederik Rehbach , Olaf Mersmann

We established a Spatio-Temporal Neural Network, namely STNN, to forecast the spread of the coronavirus COVID-19 outbreak worldwide in 2020. The basic structure of STNN is similar to the Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) incorporating with not…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-03-23 Yi-Shuai Niu , Wentao Ding , Junpeng Hu , Wenxu Xu , Stephane Canu

Principal component analysis (PCA) is the most commonly used statistical procedure for dimension reduction. An important issue for applying PCA is to determine the rank, which is the number of dominant eigenvalues of the covariance matrix.…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-08-06 Hung Hung , Su-Yun Huang , Ching-Kang Ing

Conditional independence (CI) is central to causal inference, feature selection, and graphical modeling, yet it is untestable in many settings without additional assumptions. Existing CI tests often rely on restrictive structural…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-23 Alek Frohlich , Vladimir Kostic , Karim Lounici , Daniel Perazzo , Massimiliano Pontil

Spatiotemporal modelling of infectious diseases such as COVID-19 involves using a variety of epidemiological metrics such as regional proportion of cases or regional positivity rates. Although observing their changes over time is critical…

There has been a growing interest in covariate adjustment in the analysis of randomized controlled trials in past years. For instance, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration recently issued guidance that emphasizes the importance of…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-06-12 Kelly Van Lancker , Frank Bretz , Oliver Dukes

One of the challenges with functional data is incorporating spatial structure, or local correlation, into the analysis. This structure is inherent in the output from an increasing number of biomedical technologies, and a functional linear…

Applications · Statistics 2011-11-07 Timothy W. Randolph , Jaroslaw Harezlak , Ziding Feng

Robust model-fitting to spectroscopic transitions is a requirement across many fields of science. The corrected Akaike and Bayesian information criteria (AICc and BIC) are most frequently used to select the optimal number of fitting…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2020-11-25 John K. Webb , Chung-Chi Lee , Robert F. Carswell , Dinko Milaković

Continuously indexed datasets with multiple variables have become ubiquitous in the geophysical, ecological, environmental and climate sciences, and pose substantial analysis challenges to scientists and statisticians. For many years,…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-07-30 Marc G. Genton , William Kleiber