Related papers: Is a Recent Surge in Global Warming Detectable?
We analyze global surface temperature data obtained at 13472 weather stations from the year 1702 to 1990. The mean annual temperature of a station fluctuates from year to year by typically +-0.6oC (one standard deviation). Superimposed on…
As IPCC ARs stated, global warming is estimated based on the average from 1850 to 1900 (global average temperature of preindustrialization estimated from relatively sparse observations). Given the impossibility of massive increasing…
To answer the questions of whether global warming is accelerating and when the 1.5{\deg}C Paris Agreement target will be exceeded, the global mean surface temperature from 1880 to 2025 is first examined using a purely graphical approach and…
We do several simple calculations and measurements in an effort to gain understanding of global warming and the carbon cycle. Some conclusions are interesting: (i) There has been global warming since the end of the "little ice age" around…
Many regions across the globe broke their surface temperature records in recent years, further sparking concerns about the impending arrival of "tipping points" later in the 21st century. This study analyzes observed global surface…
Global climate change is one of main concern of modern society. To estimate this change usually one estimates the global mean temperature. Measuring and calculating the Earth's average temperature are multi-steps complex processes which…
We fit 12 independent surface temperature time series (zones of latitude), 6 land- and 6 ocean-based, with a Gaussian (centered around WW2) on a quadratic background. The four polar zones are unusable. Each of the remaining 8 shows evidence…
We theoretically study long-term trends in the statistics of record-breaking daily temperatures and validate these predictions using Monte Carlo simulations and data from the city of Philadelphia, for which 126 years of daily temperature…
We use the Global Historical Climatology Network--daily database to calculate a nonparametric statistic that describes the rate at which all-time daily high and low temperature records have been set in nine geographic regions (continents or…
This article discusses the limits of the Anthropogenic Global Warming Theory advocated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. A phenomenological theory of climate change based on the physical properties of the data themselves is…
The rise in global mean temperature is an incomplete description of warming. For many purposes, including agriculture and human life, temperature extremes may be more important than temperature means and changes in local extremes may be…
Using optimal detection techniques with climate model simulations, most of the observed increase of near surface temperatures over the second half of the twentieth century is attributed to anthropogenic influences. However, the partitioning…
In 2023, the global mean temperature soared to 1.48K above the pre-industrial level, surpassing the previous record by 0.17K. Previous best-guess estimates of known drivers including anthropogenic warming and the El Nino onset fall short by…
Whether natural factors could interpret the rise of the Earth's surface temperature is still controversial. Though numerous recent researches have reported apparent correlations between solar activity and the Earth's climate, solar activity…
Using observational data and an elementary rigorous statistical fact it is easily shown that the distribution of Earth's climate is non-stationary. Examination of records of hundreds of local Industrial Era temperature histories in the…
There is argument as to the extent to which there has been an increase over the past few decades in the frequency of the extremes of climatic parameters, such as temperature, storminess, precipitation, etc, an obvious point being that…
We present a mathematical analysis of records drawn from independent random variables with a drifting mean. To leading order the change in the record rate is proportional to the ratio of the drift velocity to the standard deviation of the…
Observations suggest that the earth's surface has been warming relative to the troposphere for the last 25 years; this is not only difficult to explain but also contrary to the results of climate models. We provide new evidence that the…
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports indicate that the global mean temperature is about one-degree Celsius higher than pre-industrial levels, that this increase is anthropogenic, and that there is a causal relationship…
There is an ongoing debate in the literature about whether the present global warming is increasing local and global temperature variability. The central methodological issues of this debate relate to the proper treatment of normalised…