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Accurate estimation of uncertainty in deep learning is critical for deploying models in high-stakes domains such as medical diagnosis and autonomous decision-making, where overconfident predictions can lead to harmful outcomes. In practice,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-12 Xinran Xu , Xiuyi Fan

Conformal prediction has shown spurring performance in constructing statistically rigorous prediction sets for arbitrary black-box machine learning models, assuming the data is exchangeable. However, even small adversarial perturbations…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-19 Mintong Kang , Nezihe Merve Gürel , Linyi Li , Bo Li

In recent years the ultrahigh dimensional linear regression problem has attracted enormous attentions from the research community. Under the sparsity assumption most of the published work is devoted to the selection and estimation of the…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-05-01 Randy C. S. Lai , Jan Hannig , Thomas C. M. Lee

Probabilistic circuits (PCs) are a class of tractable probabilistic models, which admit efficient inference routines depending on their structural properties. In this paper, we introduce md-vtrees, a novel structural formulation of…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2023-04-18 Benjie Wang , Marta Kwiatkowska

For classification models based on neural networks, the maximum predicted class probability is often used as a confidence score. This score rarely predicts well the probability of making a correct prediction and requires a post-processing…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-07 Adrien LeCoz , Stéphane Herbin , Faouzi Adjed

Predictive models are often introduced to decision-making tasks under the rationale that they improve performance over an existing decision-making policy. However, it is challenging to compare predictive performance against an existing…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-13 Luke Guerdan , Amanda Coston , Kenneth Holstein , Zhiwei Steven Wu

The likelihood function represents statistical evidence in the context of data and a probability model. Considerable theory has demonstrated that evidence strength for different parameter values can be interpreted from the ratio of…

Applications · Statistics 2016-11-17 Zeynep Baskurt , Lisa Strug

Combining the outputs of multiple classifiers or experts into a single probabilistic classification is a fundamental task in machine learning with broad applications from classifier fusion to expert opinion pooling. Here we present a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-11-24 Susanne Trick , Constantin A. Rothkopf

The effectiveness of a model is heavily reliant on the quality of the fusion representation of multiple modalities in multimodal sentiment analysis. Moreover, each modality is extracted from raw input and integrated with the rest to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-12-06 Cong-Duy Nguyen , Thong Nguyen , Duc Anh Vu , Luu Anh Tuan

Predicting the motion of other road agents enables autonomous vehicles to perform safe and efficient path planning. This task is very complex, as the behaviour of road agents depends on many factors and the number of possible future…

Current multi-modal image fusion methods typically rely on task-specific models, leading to high training costs and limited scalability. While generative methods provide a unified modeling perspective, they often suffer from slow inference…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-11-19 Huayi Zhu , Xiu Shu , Youqiang Xiong , Qiao Liu , Rui Chen , Di Yuan , Xiaojun Chang , Zhenyu He

It is common when using cross-section or panel data to assign each observation to a cluster and allow for arbitrary patterns of heteroskedasticity and correlation within clusters. For regression models, there are many ways to make…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-04-03 James G. MacKinnon

Multimodal sentiment analysis is a key technology in the fields of human-computer interaction and affective computing. Accurately recognizing human emotional states is crucial for facilitating smooth communication between humans and…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2026-01-07 Wangyuan Zhu , Jun Yu

We consider the problem of uncertainty quantification for prediction in a time series: if we use past data to forecast the next time point, can we provide valid prediction intervals around our forecasts? To avoid placing distributional…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-01-13 Rina Foygel Barber , Ashwin Pananjady

We consider learning and compositionality as the key mechanisms towards simulating human-like intelligence. While each mechanism is successfully achieved by neural networks and symbolic AIs, respectively, it is the combination of the two…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2022-08-29 Ximing Qiao , Hai Li

Information integration from different modalities is an active area of research. Human beings and, in general, biological neural systems are quite adept at using a multitude of signals from different sensory perceptive fields to interact…

Neural and Evolutionary Computing · Computer Science 2021-10-05 Shiv Shankar

Pursuing invariant prediction from heterogeneous environments opens the door to learning causality in a purely data-driven way and has several applications in causal discovery and robust transfer learning. However, existing methods such as…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-01-30 Yihong Gu , Cong Fang , Yang Xu , Zijian Guo , Jianqing Fan

Computer models are used to model complex processes in various disciplines. Often, a key source of uncertainty in the behavior of complex computer models is uncertainty due to unknown model input parameters. Statistical computer model…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-08-02 Won Chang , Murali Haran , Roman Olson , Klaus Keller

The research introduces a reproducible framework for transforming raw, heterogeneous sensor streams into aligned, semantically meaningful representations for multimodal human activity recognition. Grounded in the Carnegie Mellon University…

Applications · Statistics 2026-05-05 Yiyao Yang , Yasemin Gulbahar

Multimodal affective computing aims to predict humans' sentiment, emotion, intention, and opinion using language, acoustic, and visual modalities. However, current models often learn spurious correlations that harm generalization under…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-21 Sijie Mai , Shiqin Han
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