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Calibrated probability outputs of trained classifiers are increasingly used as inputs to downstream regression estimands such as effects, prevalences, or disparities for a latent group observed only on a small labelled subset. A standard…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-14 Marcell T. Kurbucz

Machine learning (ML) systems are increasingly deployed in high-stakes domains where reliability is paramount. This thesis investigates how uncertainty estimation can enhance the safety and trustworthiness of ML, focusing on selective…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-09 Stephan Rabanser

In safety-critical applications data-driven models must not only be accurate but also provide reliable uncertainty estimates. This property, commonly referred to as calibration, is essential for risk-aware decision-making. In regression a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-23 Jelke Wibbeke , Nico Schönfisch , Sebastian Rohjans , Andreas Rauh

Out-of-distribution (OOD) detection is critical for identifying test samples that deviate from in-distribution (ID) data, ensuring network robustness and reliability. This paper presents a flexible framework for OOD knowledge distillation…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-30 Zhilin Zhao , Longbing Cao , Yixuan Zhang , Kun-Yu Lin , Wei-Shi Zheng

Confidence calibration - the process to calibrate the output probability distribution of neural networks - is essential for safety-critical applications of such networks. Recent works verify the link between mis-calibration and overfitting.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-05-24 Linwei Tao , Minjing Dong , Daochang Liu , Changming Sun , Chang Xu

We study the problem of Out-of-Distribution (OOD) detection, that is, detecting whether a learning algorithm's output can be trusted at inference time. While a number of tests for OOD detection have been proposed in prior work, a formal…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-09-19 Akshayaa Magesh , Venugopal V. Veeravalli , Anirban Roy , Susmit Jha

Detecting out-of-distribution (OOD) samples are crucial for machine learning models deployed in open-world environments. Classifier-based scores are a standard approach for OOD detection due to their fine-grained detection capability.…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2023-09-27 Jaewoo Park , Yoon Gyo Jung , Andrew Beng Jin Teoh

Deep Neural Networks for classification behave unpredictably when confronted with inputs not stemming from the training distribution. This motivates out-of-distribution detection (OOD) mechanisms. The usual lack of prior information on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-03-02 Konstantin Kirchheim , Tim Gonschorek , Frank Ortmeier

Machine learning plays an increasingly significant role in many aspects of our lives (including medicine, transportation, security, justice and other domains), making the potential consequences of false predictions increasingly devastating.…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2020-07-01 Yuval Bahat , Gregory Shakhnarovich

In vision classification, generating inputs that elicit confident predictions is key to understanding model behavior and reliability, especially under adversarial or out-of-distribution (OOD) conditions. While traditional adversarial…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-03 Pirzada Suhail , Pravesh Khaparde , Amit Sethi

Accurate estimation of predictive uncertainty in modern neural networks is critical to achieve well calibrated predictions and detect out-of-distribution (OOD) inputs. The most promising approaches have been predominantly focused on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-07-13 Shreyas Padhy , Zachary Nado , Jie Ren , Jeremiah Liu , Jasper Snoek , Balaji Lakshminarayanan

Out-of-distribution (OOD) detection is essential for model trustworthiness which aims to sensitively identify semantic OOD samples and robustly generalize for covariate-shifted OOD samples. However, we discover that the superior OOD…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-16 Qingyang Zhang , Qiuxuan Feng , Joey Tianyi Zhou , Yatao Bian , Qinghua Hu , Changqing Zhang

The utilisation of Deep Learning (DL) is advancing into increasingly more sophisticated applications. While it shows great potential to provide transformational capabilities, DL also raises new challenges regarding its reliability in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-03 Xingyu Zhao , Wei Huang , Alec Banks , Victoria Cox , David Flynn , Sven Schewe , Xiaowei Huang

Deep Neural Networks are often brittle on image classification tasks and known to misclassify inputs. While these misclassifications may be inevitable, all failure modes cannot be considered equal. Certain misclassifications (eg.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-11-03 Alberto Olmo , Sailik Sengupta , Subbarao Kambhampati

Uncertainty quantification is a central challenge in reliable and trustworthy machine learning. Naive measures such as last-layer scores are well-known to yield overconfident estimates in the context of overparametrized neural networks.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-05-24 Lucas Clarté , Bruno Loureiro , Florent Krzakala , Lenka Zdeborová

Neural networks have proven successful at learning from complex data distributions by acting as universal function approximators. However, they are often overconfident in their predictions, which leads to inaccurate and miscalibrated…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-02-23 Jeffrey Willette , Juho Lee , Sung Ju Hwang

Deep learning architectures have proved versatile in a number of drug discovery applications, including the modelling of in vitro compound activity. While controlling for prediction confidence is essential to increase the trust,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-10-23 Isidro Cortes-Ciriano , Andreas Bender

In classification applications, we often want probabilistic predictions to reflect confidence or uncertainty. Dropout, a commonly used training technique, has recently been linked to Bayesian inference, yielding an efficient way to quantify…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-06-25 Zhilu Zhang , Adrian V. Dalca , Mert R. Sabuncu

The ability to detect Out-of-Distribution (OOD) data is important in safety-critical applications of deep learning. The aim is to separate In-Distribution (ID) data drawn from the training distribution from OOD data using a measure of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-09-21 Guoxuan Xia , Christos-Savvas Bouganis

Machine learning models, while progressively advanced, rely heavily on the IID assumption, which is often unfulfilled in practice due to inevitable distribution shifts. This renders them susceptible and untrustworthy for deployment in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-05 Han Yu , Jiashuo Liu , Xingxuan Zhang , Jiayun Wu , Peng Cui