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Related papers: Revisiting Confidence Estimation: Towards Reliable…

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Miscalibration - a mismatch between a model's confidence and its correctness - of Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) makes their predictions hard to rely on. Ideally, we want networks to be accurate, calibrated and confident. We show that, as…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-10-27 Jishnu Mukhoti , Viveka Kulharia , Amartya Sanyal , Stuart Golodetz , Philip H. S. Torr , Puneet K. Dokania

Deep neural networks are known to be overconfident when applied to out-of-distribution (OOD) inputs which clearly do not belong to any class. This is a problem in safety-critical applications since a reliable assessment of the uncertainty…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-03-11 Julian Bitterwolf , Alexander Meinke , Matthias Hein

The ability to ensure that a classifier gives reliable confidence scores is essential to ensure informed decision-making. To this end, recent work has focused on miscalibration, i.e., the over or under confidence of model scores. Yet…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-04-28 Alexandre Perez-Lebel , Marine Le Morvan , Gaël Varoquaux

Confidence calibration -- the problem of predicting probability estimates representative of the true correctness likelihood -- is important for classification models in many applications. We discover that modern neural networks, unlike…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-08-04 Chuan Guo , Geoff Pleiss , Yu Sun , Kilian Q. Weinberger

Detecting out-of-distribution (OOD) data is a fundamental challenge in the deployment of machine learning models. From a security standpoint, this is particularly important because OOD test data can result in misleadingly confident yet…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-25 Onat Gungor , Amanda Sofie Rios , Nilesh Ahuja , Tajana Rosing

Overconfidence is a common issue for deep neural networks, limiting their deployment in real-world applications. To better estimate confidence, existing methods mostly focus on fully-supervised scenarios and rely on training labels. In this…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-07-21 Chen Li , Xiaoling Hu , Chao Chen

It has recently been shown that ReLU networks produce arbitrarily over-confident predictions far away from the training data. Thus, ReLU networks do not know when they don't know. However, this is a highly important property in safety…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-02-24 Alexander Meinke , Matthias Hein

Image classification models deployed in the real world may receive inputs outside the intended data distribution. For critical applications such as clinical decision making, it is important that a model can detect such out-of-distribution…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2021-07-07 Christoph Berger , Magdalini Paschali , Ben Glocker , Konstantinos Kamnitsas

Deep neural networks are powerful tools to detect hidden patterns in data and leverage them to make predictions, but they are not designed to understand uncertainty and estimate reliable probabilities. In particular, they tend to be…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-11-10 Bat-Sheva Einbinder , Yaniv Romano , Matteo Sesia , Yanfei Zhou

Uncertainty calibration is crucial for various machine learning applications, yet it remains challenging. Many models exhibit hallucinations - confident yet inaccurate responses - due to miscalibrated confidence. Here, we show that the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-28 Jeonghwan Cheon , Se-Bum Paik

Within the last few years, there has been a move towards using statistical models in conjunction with neural networks with the end goal of being able to better answer the question, "what do our models know?". From this trend, classical…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-12-03 Achintya Gopal

One of the most common problems preventing the application of prediction models in the real world is lack of generalization: The accuracy of models, measured in the benchmark does repeat itself on future data, e.g. in the settings of real…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2022-10-19 Abdel Aziz Taha , Leonhard Hennig , Petr Knoth

Out-of-distribution (OOD) detection is crucial for the deployment of machine learning models in the open world. While existing OOD detectors are effective in identifying OOD samples that deviate significantly from in-distribution (ID) data,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-10 Hao Fu , Prashanth Krishnamurthy , Siddharth Garg , Farshad Khorrami

As neural network classifiers are deployed in real-world applications, it is crucial that their failures can be detected reliably. One practical solution is to assign confidence scores to each prediction, then use these scores to filter out…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-01-04 Xin Qiu , Risto Miikkulainen

With model trustworthiness being crucial for sensitive real-world applications, practitioners are putting more and more focus on improving the uncertainty calibration of deep neural networks. Calibration errors are designed to quantify the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-14 Sebastian G. Gruber , Florian Buettner

Out-Of-Distribution (OOD) detection has received broad attention over the years, aiming to ensure the reliability and safety of deep neural networks (DNNs) in real-world scenarios by rejecting incorrect predictions. However, we notice a…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2022-12-01 Yao Zhu , Yuefeng Chen , Xiaodan Li , Rong Zhang , Hui Xue , Xiang Tian , Rongxin Jiang , Bolun Zheng , Yaowu Chen

Deep neural networks have shown outstanding performance in computer vision tasks such as semantic segmentation and have defined the state-of-the-art. However, these segmentation models are trained on a closed and predefined set of semantic…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-11-26 Samuel Marschall , Kira Maag

Confidence estimation, a task that aims to evaluate the trustworthiness of the model's prediction output during deployment, has received lots of research attention recently, due to its importance for the safe deployment of deep models.…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2022-10-14 Haoxuan Qu , Yanchao Li , Lin Geng Foo , Jason Kuen , Jiuxiang Gu , Jun Liu

Many applications of classification methods not only require high accuracy but also reliable estimation of predictive uncertainty. However, while many current classification frameworks, in particular deep neural networks, achieve high…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-02-28 Jonathan Wenger , Hedvig Kjellström , Rudolph Triebel

Discriminatively trained, deterministic neural networks are the de facto choice for classification problems. However, even though they achieve state-of-the-art results on in-domain test sets, they tend to be overconfident on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-28 Ahmad Rashid , Serena Hacker , Guojun Zhang , Agustinus Kristiadi , Pascal Poupart