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The increasing adoption of Digital Assets (DAs), such as Bitcoin (BTC), rises the need for accurate option pricing models. Yet, existing methodologies fail to cope with the volatile nature of the emerging DAs. Many models have been proposed…
We propose a stochastic model predictive control (MPC) framework for linear systems subject to joint-in-time chance constraints under unknown disturbance distributions. Unlike existing approaches that rely on parametric or Gaussian…
In finance, the weak form of the Efficient Market Hypothesis asserts that historic stock price and volume data cannot inform predictions of future prices. In this paper we show that, to the contrary, future intra-day stock prices could be…
To take into account the temporal dimension of uncertainty in stock markets, this paper introduces a cross-sectional estimation of stock market volatility based on the intrinsic entropy model. The proposed cross-sectional intrinsic entropy…
In this paper we present a framework for risk-sensitive model predictive control (MPC) of linear systems affected by stochastic multiplicative uncertainty. Our key innovation is to consider a time-consistent, dynamic risk evaluation of the…
This paper studies a class of linear panel models with random coefficients. We do not restrict the joint distribution of the time-invariant unobserved heterogeneity and the covariates. We investigate identification of the average partial…
In this paper, a new way to integrate volatility information for estimating value at risk (VaR) and conditional value at risk (CVaR) of a portfolio is suggested. The new method is developed from the perspective of Bayesian statistics and it…
We introduce a new method to price American-style options on underlying investments governed by stochastic volatility (SV) models. The method does not require the volatility process to be observed. Instead, it exploits the fact that the…
We propose a novel strategy for multivariate extreme value index estimation. In applications such as finance, volatility and risk present in the components of a multivariate time series are often driven by the same underlying factors, such…
This work investigates the challenge of ensuring safety guarantees in the presence of uncontrollable agents, whose behaviors are stochastic and depend on both their own and the system's states. We present a neural model predictive control…
High-dimensional tensor-valued data have recently gained attention from researchers in economics and finance. We consider the estimation and inference of high-dimensional tensor factor models, where each dimension of the tensor diverges.…
We introduce a class of randomly time-changed fast mean-reverting stochastic volatility models and, using spectral theory and singular perturbation techniques, we derive an approximation for the prices of European options in this setting.…
We study the problem of system identification for stochastic continuous-time dynamics, based on a single finite-length state trajectory. We present a method for estimating the possibly unstable open-loop matrix by employing properly…
This paper proposes a robust design of the time-varying internal model principle-based control (TV-IMPC) for tracking sophisticated references generated by linear time-varying (LTV) autonomous systems. The existing TV-IMPC design usually…
Volatility forecasts play a central role among equity risk measures. Besides traditional statistical models, modern forecasting techniques based on machine learning can be employed when treating volatility as a univariate, daily…
Active Voltage Control (AVC) on the Power Distribution Networks (PDNs) aims to stabilize the voltage levels to ensure efficient and reliable operation of power systems. With the increasing integration of distributed energy resources, recent…
Predictive coding networks are neuroscience-inspired models with roots in both Bayesian statistics and neuroscience. Training such models, however, is quite inefficient and unstable. In this work, we show how by simply changing the temporal…
We measure the influence of different time-scales on the dynamics of financial market data. This is obtained by decomposing financial time series into simple oscillations associated with distinct time-scales. We propose two new time-varying…
We propose a two stage procedure for the estimation of the parameters of a fairly general, continuous-time stochastic volatility. An important ingredient of the proposed method is the Cuchiero-Teichmann volatility estimator, which is based…
A dynamical system is said to undergo rate-induced tipping when it fails to track its quasi-equilibrium state due to an above-critical-rate change of system parameters. We study a prototypical model for rate-induced tipping, the saddle-node…