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This paper focuses on the task of detecting local episodes involving violation of the standard It\^o semimartingale assumption for financial asset prices in real time that might induce arbitrage opportunities. Our proposed detectors,…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-07-21 Torben G. Andersen , Viktor Todorov , Bo Zhou

In this paper, we propose a nonparametric way to test the hypothesis that time-variation in intraday volatility is caused solely by a deterministic and recurrent diurnal pattern. We assume that noisy high-frequency data from a discretely…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-01-26 Kim Christensen , Ulrich Hounyo , Mark Podolskij

We develop a novel observation-driven model for high-frequency prices. We account for irregularly spaced observations, simultaneous transactions, discreteness of prices, and market microstructure noise. The relation between trade durations…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2024-05-09 Vladimír Holý

This paper proposes a multiplicative component intraday volatility model. The intraday conditional volatility is expressed as the product of intraday periodic component, intraday stochastic volatility component and daily conditional…

Econometrics · Economics 2021-11-04 Xiufeng Yan

Many methods for estimating integrated volatility and related functionals of semimartingales in the presence of jumps require specification of tuning parameters for their use in practice. In much of the available theory, tuning parameters…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-10-23 B. Cooper Boniece , José E. Figueroa-López , Yuchen Han

The literature provides strong evidence that stock prices can be predicted from past price data. Principal component analysis (PCA) is a widely used mathematical technique for dimensionality reduction and analysis of data by identifying a…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2018-03-15 Mahsa Ghorbani , Edwin K. P. Chong

Multivariate volatility modeling and forecasting are crucial in financial economics. This paper develops a copula-based approach to model and forecast realized volatility matrices. The proposed copula-based time series models can capture…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2020-02-21 Wenjing Wang , Minjing Tao

The Hawkes model is suitable for describing self and mutually exciting random events. In addition, the exponential decay in the Hawkes process allows us to calculate the moment properties in the model. However, due to the complexity of the…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2024-09-24 Kyungsub Lee

We propose a pairs trading model that incorporates a time-varying volatility of the Constant Elasticity of Variance type. Our approach is based on stochastic control techniques; given a fixed time horizon and a portfolio of two…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-11-05 T. N. Li , A. Tourin

We extend the principal component analysis (PCA) to second-order stationary vector time series in the sense that we seek for a contemporaneous linear transformation for a $p$-variate time series such that the transformed series is segmented…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-12-21 Jinyuan Chang , Bin Guo , Qiwei Yao

Various parametric volatility models for financial data have been developed to incorporate high-frequency realized volatilities and better capture market dynamics. However, because high-frequency trading data are not available during the…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2022-06-20 Donggyu Kim , Minseok Shin , Yazhen Wang

We consider a multidimensional Ito semimartingale regularly sampled on [0,t] at high frequency $1/\Delta_n$, with $\Delta_n$ going to zero. The goal of this paper is to provide an estimator for the integral over [0,t] of a given function of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-08-14 Jean Jacod , Mathieu Rosenbaum

In this paper, we show how to estimate the asymptotic (conditional) covariance matrix, which appears in central limit theorems in high-frequency estimation of asset return volatility. We provide a recipe for the estimation of this matrix by…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-01-26 Kim Christensen , Mark Podolskij , Nopporn Thamrongrat , Bezirgen Veliyev

In this paper, we propose a Risk-Averse Priced Timed Automata (PTA) Model Predictive Control (MPC) framework to increase flexibility of cyber-physical systems. To improve flexibility in these systems, our risk-averse framework solves a…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-10-28 Mostafa Tavakkoli Anbarani , Efe C. Balta , Rômulo Meira-Góes , Ilya Kovalenko

This paper examines the usefulness of high frequency data in estimating the covariance matrix for portfolio choice when the portfolio size is large. A computationally convenient nonlinear shrinkage estimator for the integrated covariance…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-11-22 Cheng Liu , Ningning Xia , Jun Yu

In this paper we consider a fractional stochastic volatility model, that is a model in which the volatility may exhibit a long-range dependent or a rough/antipersistent behavior. We propose a dynamic sequential Monte Carlo methodology that…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-02-28 Alexandra Chronopoulou , Konstantinos Spiliopoulos

Portfolio allocation with gross-exposure constraint is an effective method to increase the efficiency and stability of selected portfolios among a vast pool of assets, as demonstrated in Fan et al (2008). The required high-dimensional…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2010-04-29 Jianqing Fan , Yingying Li , Ke Yu

This paper presents the nonparametric inference for nonlinear volatility functionals of general multivariate It\^o semimartingales, in high-frequency and noisy setting. Pre-averaging and truncation enable simultaneous handling of noise and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-11-11 Richard Y. Chen

This paper presents a new approach to volume ratio prediction in financial markets, specifically targeting the execution of Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP) strategies. Recognizing the importance of accurate volume profile forecasting,…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-03-11 Hanwool Lee , Heehwan Park

In this paper, we develop a novel large volatility matrix estimation procedure for analyzing global financial markets. Practitioners often use lower-frequency data, such as weekly or monthly returns, to address the issue of different…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-01-21 Sung Hoon Choi , Donggyu Kim