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Reconstructing the structure of thin films and multilayers from measurements of scattered X-rays or neutrons is key to progress in physics, chemistry, and biology. However, finding all structures compatible with reflectometry data is…

Bayesian inference for complex models with an intractable likelihood can be tackled using algorithms performing many calls to computer simulators. These approaches are collectively known as "simulation-based inference" (SBI). Recent SBI…

In many areas of science, complex phenomena are modeled by stochastic parametric simulators, often featuring high-dimensional parameter spaces and intractable likelihoods. In this context, performing Bayesian inference can be challenging.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-11-10 François Rozet , Gilles Louppe

The direct detection of gravitational waves (GWs) by LIGO has strikingly confirmed general relativity (GR), but testing GR via GWs requires estimating parameterized post-Einsteinian (ppE) deviation parameters in waveform models. Traditional…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2026-02-03 Yong-Xin Zhang , Tian-Yang Sun , Chun-Yu Xiong , Song-Tao Liu , Yu-Xin Wang , Shang-Jie Jin , Jing-Fei Zhang , Xin Zhang

Classic Bayesian methods with complex models are frequently infeasible due to an intractable likelihood. Simulation-based inference methods, such as Approximate Bayesian Computing (ABC), calculate posteriors without accessing a likelihood…

Computation · Statistics 2026-01-09 Elliot Maceda , Emily C. Hector , Amanda Lenzi , Brian J. Reich

Bayesian inference allows machine learning models to express uncertainty. Current machine learning models use only a single learnable parameter combination when making predictions, and as a result are highly overconfident when their…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-02-23 Andrew Wood , Moshik Hershcovitch , Daniel Waddington , Sarel Cohen , Peter Chin

The coming decade will be crucial for determining the final design and configuration of a global network of next-generation (XG) gravitational-wave detectors, including the Einstein Telescope (ET) and Cosmic Explorer (CE). In this study,…

General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology · Physics 2026-04-20 Filippo Santoliquido , Jacopo Tissino , Ulyana Dupletsa , Marica Branchesi , Jan Harms

Generative models and those with computationally intractable likelihoods are widely used to describe complex systems in the natural sciences, social sciences, and engineering. Fitting these models to data requires likelihood-free inference…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-04 Rui Zhang , Oksana A. Chkrebtii , Dongbin Xiu

Ensemble weather predictions require statistical post-processing of systematic errors to obtain reliable and accurate probabilistic forecasts. Traditionally, this is accomplished with distributional regression models in which the parameters…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-04-01 Stephan Rasp , Sebastian Lerch

A simulation is useful when the phenomenon of interest is either expensive to regenerate or irreproducible with the same context. Recently, Bayesian inference on the distribution of the simulation input parameter has been implemented…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-11-07 Dongjun Kim , Kyungwoo Song , Seungjae Shin , Wanmo Kang , Il-Chul Moon , Weonyoung Joo

End-to-End (E2E) unrolled optimization frameworks show promise for Magnetic Resonance (MR) image recovery, but suffer from high memory usage during training. In addition, these deterministic approaches do not offer opportunities for…

Image and Video Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-02-09 Jyothi Rikhab Chand , Mathews Jacob

Neural posterior estimation methods based on discrete normalizing flows have become established tools for simulation-based inference (SBI), but scaling them to high-dimensional problems can be challenging. Building on recent advances in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-30 Maximilian Dax , Jonas Wildberger , Simon Buchholz , Stephen R. Green , Jakob H. Macke , Bernhard Schölkopf

Simulation-based inference (SBI) enables parameter estimation for complex stochastic models with intractable likelihoods when model simulation is feasible. Neural posterior estimation (NPE) is a popular SBI approach that often achieves…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-23 Ryan P. Kelly , David T. Frazier , David J. Warne , Christopher C. Drovandi

Methods based on Deep Learning have recently been applied on astrophysical parameter recovery thanks to their ability to capture information from complex data. One of these methods is the approximate Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) which…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2023-06-21 Héctor J. Hortúa , Luz Ángela García , Leonardo Castañeda C

A Neural Process (NP) estimates a stochastic process implicitly defined with neural networks given a stream of data, rather than pre-specifying priors already known, such as Gaussian processes. An ideal NP would learn everything from data…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-04-20 Hyungi Lee , Eunggu Yun , Giung Nam , Edwin Fong , Juho Lee

Sparse deep neural networks have proven to be efficient for predictive model building in large-scale studies. Although several works have studied theoretical and numerical properties of sparse neural architectures, they have primarily…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-09-18 Sanket Jantre , Shrijita Bhattacharya , Tapabrata Maiti

The LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA catalog has been analyzed with an abundance of different population models due to theoretical uncertainty in the formation of gravitational-wave sources. To expedite model exploration, we introduce an efficient and…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2025-06-30 Matthew Mould , Noah E. Wolfe , Salvatore Vitale

We introduce a novel combination of Bayesian Models (BMs) and Neural Networks (NNs) for making predictions with a minimum expected risk. Our approach combines the best of both worlds, the data efficiency and interpretability of a BM with…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-09-28 Mathias Löwe , Per Lunnemann Hansen , Sebastian Risi

Predictive uncertainty quantification is crucial for reliable decision-making in various applied domains. Bayesian neural networks offer a powerful framework for this task. However, defining meaningful priors and ensuring computational…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-04-30 Yijia Liu , Xiao Wang

Simulation-based inference (SBI) solves statistical inverse problems by repeatedly running a stochastic simulator and inferring posterior distributions from model-simulations. To improve simulation efficiency, several inference methods take…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-11-11 Michael Deistler , Pedro J Goncalves , Jakob H Macke