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There is a growing interest in the so-called Bayesian Predictive Inference approach, which allows to perform Bayesian inference without specifying the likelihood and prior of the model, or the need of any MCMC. Instead, only a sequence of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-09-30 Marco Battiston , Lorenzo Cappello

We argue for the use of separate exchangeability as a modeling principle in Bayesian nonparametric (BNP) inference. Separate exchangeability is de facto widely applied in the Bayesian parametric case, e.g., it naturally arises in simple…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-29 Giovanni Rebaudo , Qiaohui Lin , Peter Mueller

Bayesian interpretations of neural processing require that biological mechanisms represent and operate upon probability distributions in accordance with Bayes' theorem. Many have speculated that synaptic failure constitutes a mechanism of…

Neurons and Cognition · Quantitative Biology 2022-10-05 Kevin McKee , Ian Crandell , Rishidev Chaudhuri , Randall O'Reilly

We consider inference from non-random samples in data-rich settings where high-dimensional auxiliary information is available both in the sample and the target population, with survey inference being a special case. We propose a regularized…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-04-13 Yutao Liu , Andrew Gelman , Qixuan Chen

Selection bias arises when the probability that an observation enters a dataset depends on variables related to the quantities of interest, leading to systematic distortions in estimation and uncertainty quantification. For example, in…

Bayesian models of cognition hypothesize that human brains make sense of data by representing probability distributions and applying Bayes' rule to find the best explanation for available data. Understanding the neural mechanisms underlying…

Neural and Evolutionary Computing · Computer Science 2021-07-02 Milad Kharratzadeh , Thomas R. Shultz

We study consumption dependence in the context of random utility and repeated choice. We show that, in the presence of consumption dependence, the random utility model is a misspecified model of repeated rational choice. This…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2025-10-01 Christopher Turansick

Theoretically as well as experimentally it is investigated how people represent their knowledge in order to make decisions or to share their knowledge with others. Experiment 1 probes into the ways how people 6ather information about the…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-04-15 Alf C. Zimmer

How does one test empirically the hypothesis that a decision maker (DM) is being influenced by information via Bayesian persuasion? In this paper, I consider a DM whose state-dependent preferences are known to an analyst, who sees the…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2026-05-13 Jeffrey Mensch

Bayesian probability theory is used to analyze the oft-made assumption that humans are typical observers in the universe. Some theoretical calculations make the {\it selection fallacy} that we are randomly chosen from a class of objects by…

High Energy Physics - Theory · Physics 2008-11-26 James B. Hartle , Mark Srednicki

A salient approach to interpretable machine learning is to restrict modeling to simple models. In the Bayesian framework, this can be pursued by restricting the model structure and prior to favor interpretable models. Fundamentally,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-09-08 Homayun Afrabandpey , Tomi Peltola , Juho Piironen , Aki Vehtari , Samuel Kaski

Estimating consumer preferences is central to many problems in economics and marketing. This paper develops a flexible framework for learning individual preferences from partial ranking information by interpreting observed rankings as…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-19 Yu-Chang Chen , Chen Chian Fuh , Shang En Tsai

The random utility model (RUM, McFadden and Richter, 1990) has been the standard tool to describe the behavior of a population of decision makers. RUM assumes that decision makers behave as if they maximize a rational preference over a…

General Economics · Economics 2022-07-05 Victor H. Aguiar , Maria Jose Boccardi , Nail Kashaev , Jeongbin Kim

Nonparametric Bayesian models are often based on the assumption that the objects being modeled are exchangeable. While appropriate in some applications (e.g., bag-of-words models for documents), exchangeability is sometimes assumed simply…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2012-06-18 Kurt T. Miller , Thomas Griffiths , Michael I. Jordan

Standard clustering techniques assume a common configuration for all features in a dataset. However, when dealing with multi-view or longitudinal data, the clusters' number, frequencies, and shapes may need to vary across features to…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-26 Beatrice Franzolini , Maria De Iorio , Johan Eriksson

We provide sufficient conditions under which a utility function may be recovered from a finite choice experiment. Identification, as is commonly understood in decision theory, is not enough. We provide a general recoverability result that…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2023-01-30 Christopher P. Chambers , Federico Echenique , Nicolas S. Lambert

It is well known that ex ante social preferences and expected utility are not always compatible. In this note, we introduce a novel framework that naturally separates social preferences from selfish preferences to answer the following…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2023-12-12 Mehmet S. Ismail , Ronald Peeters

Species sampling processes have long served as the fundamental framework for modeling random discrete distributions and exchangeable sequences. However, data arising from distinct but related sources require a broader notion of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-02-03 Beatrice Franzolini , Antonio Lijoi , Igor Prünster , Giovanni Rebaudo

The application of Bayesian inference for the purpose of model selection is very popular nowadays. In this framework, models are compared through their marginal likelihoods, or their quotients, called Bayes factors. However, marginal…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-07-27 F. Llorente , L. Martino , E. Curbelo , J. Lopez-Santiago , D. Delgado

Bounded confidence opinion dynamics model the propagation of information in social networks. However in the existing literature, opinions are only viewed as abstract quantities without semantics rather than as part of a decision-making…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2015-06-17 Kush R. Varshney