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Interpreting the inference-time behavior of deep neural networks remains a challenging problem. Existing approaches to counterfactual explanation typically ask: What is the closest alternative input that would alter the model's prediction…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-12 Brian Hyeongseok Kim , Jacqueline L. Mitchell , Chao Wang

Recent advancements in solving Bayesian inverse problems have spotlighted denoising diffusion models (DDMs) as effective priors. Although these have great potential, DDM priors yield complex posterior distributions that are challenging to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-11-14 Yazid Janati , Badr Moufad , Alain Durmus , Eric Moulines , Jimmy Olsson

Generating confidence calibrated outputs is of utmost importance for the applications of deep neural networks in safety-critical decision-making systems. The output of a neural network is a probability distribution where the scores are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-09-17 Chihuang Liu , Joseph JaJa

Labeling large image datasets with attributes such as facial age or object type is tedious and sometimes infeasible. Supervised machine learning methods provide a highly accurate solution, but require manual labels which are often…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2022-12-02 Jonathan Kahana , Niv Cohen , Yedid Hoshen

Neural networks utilize the softmax as a building block in classification tasks, which contains an overconfidence problem and lacks an uncertainty representation ability. As a Bayesian alternative to the softmax, we consider a random…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-06-30 Taejong Joo , Uijung Chung , Min-Gwan Seo

PAC-Bayesian algorithms and Gibbs posteriors are gaining popularity due to their robustness against model misspecification even when Bayesian inference is inconsistent. The PAC-Bayesian alpha-posterior is a generalization of the standard…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-04-23 Lucie Perrotta

The advent of Generative Artificial Intelligence (GAI) has heralded an inflection point that changed how society thinks about knowledge acquisition. While GAI cannot be fully trusted for decision-making, it may still provide valuable…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-20 Sean O'Hagan , Veronika Ročková

We propose Neural Priming, a technique for adapting large pretrained models to distribution shifts and downstream tasks given few or no labeled examples. Presented with class names or unlabeled test samples, Neural Priming enables the model…

This paper studies how imprecision in noisy signals attenuates Bayesian updating toward the prior. This phenomenon is well-known under a normal prior and normal noise, where less precise signals yield posterior means closer to the prior…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2025-09-04 Martin Vaeth

TabPFN has recently gained attention as a foundation model for tabular datasets, achieving strong performance by leveraging in-context learning on synthetic data. However, we find that TabPFN is vulnerable to label shift, often overfitting…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-26 Seunghan Lee

Contrastive Language-Image Pre-training (CLIP) on large-scale image-caption datasets learns representations that can achieve remarkable zero-shot generalization. However, such models require a massive amount of pre-training data. Improving…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-03-21 Siddharth Joshi , Arnav Jain , Ali Payani , Baharan Mirzasoleiman

Bayesian inference allows expressing the uncertainty of posterior belief under a probabilistic model given prior information and the likelihood of the evidence. Predominantly, the likelihood function is only implicitly established by a…

We introduce a novel Bayesian estimator for the class proportion in an unlabeled dataset, based on the targeted learning framework. Our procedure requires the specification of a prior (and outputs a posterior) only for the target of…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-11-26 Iván Díaz , Oleksander Savenkov , Hooman Kamel

Label shift, a prevalent challenge in supervised learning, arises when the class prior distribution of test data differs from that of training data, leading to significant degradation in classifier performance. To accurately estimate the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-01 Jiawei Hu , Javier A. Barria

Inspired by the remarkable zero-shot generalization capacity of vision-language pre-trained model, we seek to leverage the supervision from CLIP model to alleviate the burden of data labeling. However, such supervision inevitably contains…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2022-06-14 Junchu Huang , Weijie Chen , Shicai Yang , Di Xie , Shiliang Pu , Yueting Zhuang

Constraints are a natural choice for prior information in Bayesian inference. In various applications, the parameters of interest lie on the boundary of the constraint set. In this paper, we use a method that implicitly defines a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-09-27 Jasper Marijn Everink , Yiqiu Dong , Martin Skovgaard Andersen

We propose a new method for conducting Bayesian prediction that delivers accurate predictions without correctly specifying the unknown true data generating process. A prior is defined over a class of plausible predictive models. After…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-08-24 Ruben Loaiza-Maya , Gael M. Martin , David T. Frazier

High-quality calibrated uncertainty estimates are crucial for numerous real-world applications, especially for deep learning-based deployed ML systems. While Bayesian deep learning techniques allow uncertainty estimation, training them with…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2022-07-15 Uddeshya Upadhyay , Shyamgopal Karthik , Yanbei Chen , Massimiliano Mancini , Zeynep Akata

Few-shot segmentation remains challenging due to the limitations of its labeling information for unseen classes. Most previous approaches rely on extracting high-level feature maps from the frozen visual encoder to compute the pixel-wise…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-05-15 Jin Wang , Bingfeng Zhang , Jian Pang , Honglong Chen , Weifeng Liu

Confidence calibration -- the problem of predicting probability estimates representative of the true correctness likelihood -- is important for classification models in many applications. We discover that modern neural networks, unlike…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-08-04 Chuan Guo , Geoff Pleiss , Yu Sun , Kilian Q. Weinberger
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