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Conformal Prediction (CP) stands out as a robust framework for uncertainty quantification, which is crucial for ensuring the reliability of predictions. However, common CP methods heavily rely on data exchangeability, a condition often…

Modern software-defined networks, such as Open Radio Access Network (O-RAN) systems, rely on artificial intelligence (AI)-powered applications running on controllers interfaced with the radio access network. To ensure that these AI…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-02-06 Seonghoon Yoo , Sangwoo Park , Petar Popovski , Joonhyuk Kang , Osvaldo Simeone

As large language models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed in user-facing applications, building trust and maintaining safety by accurately quantifying a model's confidence in its prediction becomes even more important. However, finding…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-03-12 Dennis Ulmer , Martin Gubri , Hwaran Lee , Sangdoo Yun , Seong Joon Oh

Conditional validity and length efficiency are two crucial aspects of conformal prediction (CP). Conditional validity ensures accurate uncertainty quantification for data subpopulations, while proper length efficiency ensures that the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-12-12 Shayan Kiyani , George Pappas , Hamed Hassani

Successful application of machine learning models to real-world prediction problems, e.g. financial forecasting and personalized medicine, has proved to be challenging, because such settings require limiting and quantifying the uncertainty…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-09-15 Yao Zhang , William Zame , Mihaela van der Schaar

Conformal prediction is a framework that provides valid uncertainty quantification for general models with exchangeable data. However, in the online learning and time-series settings, exchangeability is not satisfied. Existing online…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-11 Yuheng Lai , Garvesh Raskutti

Despite their widespread applications, Large Language Models (LLMs) often struggle to express uncertainty, posing a challenge for reliable deployment in high stakes and safety critical domains like clinical diagnostics. Existing standard…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-25 Mridul Sharma , Adeetya Patel , Zaneta D' Souza , Samira Abbasgholizadeh Rahimi , Siva Reddy , Sreenath Madathil

LLM-as-a-judge has become a promising paradigm for using large language models (LLMs) to evaluate natural language generation (NLG), but the uncertainty of its evaluation remains underexplored. This lack of reliability may limit its…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-09-24 Huanxin Sheng , Xinyi Liu , Hangfeng He , Jieyu Zhao , Jian Kang

Prompting methods play a crucial role in enhancing the capabilities of pre-trained large language models (LLMs). We explore how contrastive prompting (CP) significantly improves the ability of large language models to perform complex…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-03-06 Liang Yao

Surrogate models (including deep neural networks and other machine learning algorithms in supervised learning) are capable of approximating arbitrarily complex, high-dimensional input-output problems in science and engineering, but require…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-17 Miguel Sánchez-Domínguez , Lucas Lacasa , Javier de Vicente , Gonzalo Rubio , Eusebio Valero

We present recent advances in formal verification and control for autonomous systems with practical safety guarantees enabled by conformal prediction (CP), a statistical tool for uncertainty quantification. This survey is particularly…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-08-19 Lars Lindemann , Yiqi Zhao , Xinyi Yu , George J. Pappas , Jyotirmoy V. Deshmukh

Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) excel in diverse tasks, yet their applications in high-stakes domains are often hampered by unreliable predictions. Although numerous uncertainty quantification methods have been proposed to address this…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-22 Tianyi Zhao , Jian Kang , Lu Cheng

Conformal prediction provides a pivotal and flexible technique for uncertainty quantification by constructing prediction sets with a predefined coverage rate. Many online conformal prediction methods have been developed to address data…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-25 Dongjian Hu , Junxi Wu , Shu-Tao Xia , Changliang Zou

Ensuring factuality is essential for the safe use of Large Language Models (LLMs) in high-stakes domains such as medicine and law. Conformal inference provides distribution-free guarantees, but existing approaches are either overly…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-03 Kangjun Noh , Seongchan Lee , Ilmun Kim , Kyungwoo Song

While large language models (LLMs) have recently made tremendous progress towards solving challenging AI problems, they have done so at increasingly steep computational and API costs. We propose a novel strategy where we combine multiple…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-24 Wenwen Si , Sooyong Jang , Insup Lee , Osbert Bastani

Conformal Prediction (CP) is a principled framework for quantifying uncertainty in blackbox learning models, by constructing prediction sets with finite-sample coverage guarantees. Traditional approaches rely on scalar nonconformity scores,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-05-07 Gauthier Thurin , Kimia Nadjahi , Claire Boyer

Recent availability of Large Language Models (LLMs) has led to the development of numerous LLM-based approaches aimed at providing natural language interfaces for various end-user tasks. These end-user tasks in turn can typically be…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-02-14 Sudhir Agarwal , Anu Sreepathy , David H. Alonso , Prarit Lamba

Conformal Prediction (CP) is a popular method for uncertainty quantification that converts a pretrained model's point prediction into a prediction set, with the set size reflecting the model's confidence. Although existing CP methods are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-18 Shuqi Liu , Jianguo Huang , Luke Ong

When one observes a sequence of variables $(x_1, y_1), \ldots, (x_n, y_n)$, Conformal Prediction (CP) is a methodology that allows to estimate a confidence set for $y_{n+1}$ given $x_{n+1}$ by merely assuming that the distribution of the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-12-08 Eugene Ndiaye

Science and engineering problems fall in the category of complex conceptual problems that require specific conceptual information (CI) like math/logic -related know-how, process information, or engineering guidelines to solve them. Large…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-12-23 Nishtha N. Vaidya , Thomas Runkler , Thomas Hubauer , Veronika Haderlein-Hoegberg , Maja Mlicic Brandt