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Uncertainty quantification is an important part of many performance critical applications. This paper provides a simple alternative to existing approaches such as ensemble learning and bayesian neural networks. By directly modeling the loss…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-08-28 Yi Hung Lim

Uncertainty estimation is essential to make neural networks trustworthy in real-world applications. Extensive research efforts have been made to quantify and reduce predictive uncertainty. However, most existing works are designed for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-10-07 Myong Chol Jung , He Zhao , Joanna Dipnall , Belinda Gabbe , Lan Du

Despite the popularity of Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN), the problem of uncertainty quantification (UQ) of CNN has been largely overlooked. Lack of efficient UQ tools severely limits the application of CNN in certain areas, such as…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-15 Hongfei Du , Emre Barut , Fang Jin

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is the process of systematically determining and characterizing the degree of confidence in computational model predictions. In the context of systems biology, especially with dynamic models, UQ is crucial…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-10-29 Alberto Portela , Julio R. Banga , Marcos Matabuena

Techniques from artificial intelligence and machine learning are increasingly employed in nuclear theory, however, the uncertainties that arise from the complex parameter manifold encoded by the neural networks are often overlooked.…

Nuclear Theory · Physics 2025-10-29 Mengyao Huang , Kyle A. Wendt , Nicolas F. Schunck , Erika M. Holmbeck

If Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) is crucial to achieve trustworthy Machine Learning (ML), most UQ methods suffer from disparate and inconsistent evaluation protocols. We claim this inconsistency results from the unclear requirements the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-07-28 Victor Bouvier , Simona Maggio , Alexandre Abraham , Léo Dreyfus-Schmidt

Deep learning is gaining increasing popularity for spatiotemporal forecasting. However, prior works have mostly focused on point estimates without quantifying the uncertainty of the predictions. In high stakes domains, being able to…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2021-06-15 Dongxia Wu , Liyao Gao , Xinyue Xiong , Matteo Chinazzi , Alessandro Vespignani , Yi-An Ma , Rose Yu

Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have emerged as a prominent class of data-driven methods for molecular property prediction. However, a key limitation of typical GNN models is their inability to quantify uncertainties in the predictions. This…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-02 Shengli Jiang , Shiyi Qin , Reid C. Van Lehn , Prasanna Balaprakash , Victor M. Zavala

The importance of uncertainty quantification is increasingly recognized in the diverse field of machine learning. Accurately assessing model prediction uncertainty can help provide deeper understanding and confidence for researchers and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-03 Tianyi Chen , Yingzhou Lu , Nan Hao , Yuanyuan Zhang , Capucine Van Rechem , Jintai Chen , Tianfan Fu

With the advancement of GPS, remote sensing, and computational simulations, large amounts of geospatial and spatiotemporal data are being collected at an increasing speed. Such emerging spatiotemporal big data assets, together with the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-24 Wenchong He , Zhe Jiang

In this paper, we adopt conformal prediction, a distribution-free uncertainty quantification (UQ) framework, to obtain confidence prediction intervals with coverage guarantees for Deep Operator Network (DeepONet) regression. Initially, we…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-26 Christian Moya , Amirhossein Mollaali , Zecheng Zhang , Lu Lu , Guang Lin

Quantifying uncertainty in a model's predictions is important as it enables the safety of an AI system to be increased by acting on the model's output in an informed manner. This is crucial for applications where the cost of an error is…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2021-05-31 Aria Khoshsirat

We consider the problem of uncertainty estimation in the context of (non-Bayesian) deep neural classification. In this context, all known methods are based on extracting uncertainty signals from a trained network optimized to solve the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-04-25 Yonatan Geifman , Guy Uziel , Ran El-Yaniv

Emergence of artificial intelligence techniques in biomedical applications urges the researchers to pay more attention on the uncertainty quantification (UQ) in machine-assisted medical decision making. For classification tasks, prior…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-09-17 Xiaoyang Huang , Jiancheng Yang , Linguo Li , Haoran Deng , Bingbing Ni , Yi Xu

Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) is pivotal in enhancing the robustness, reliability, and interpretability of Machine Learning (ML) systems for healthcare, optimizing resources and improving patient care. Despite the emergence of ML-based…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-07 L. Julián Lechuga López , Shaza Elsharief , Dhiyaa Al Jorf , Firas Darwish , Congbo Ma , Farah E. Shamout

With the increased prevalence of neural operators being used to provide rapid solutions to partial differential equations (PDEs), understanding the accuracy of model predictions and the associated error levels is necessary for deploying…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-26 Nick Winovich , Mitchell Daneker , Lu Lu , Guang Lin

Despite the increasing demand for safer machine learning practices, the use of Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) methods in production remains limited. This limitation is exacerbated by the challenge of validating UQ methods in absence of UQ…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-03 Arthur Pignet , Chiara Regniez , John Klein

Bayesian neural networks and deep ensemble methods have been proposed for uncertainty quantification; however, they are computationally intensive and require large storage. By utilizing a single deterministic model, we can solve the above…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-04 Yaxin Ma , Benjamin Colburn , Jose C. Principe

Large Language Models (LLMs) excel in text generation, reasoning, and decision-making, enabling their adoption in high-stakes domains such as healthcare, law, and transportation. However, their reliability is a major concern, as they often…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-06-05 Xiaoou Liu , Tiejin Chen , Longchao Da , Chacha Chen , Zhen Lin , Hua Wei

Recent performance breakthroughs in Artificial intelligence (AI) and Machine learning (ML), especially advances in Deep learning (DL), the availability of powerful, easy-to-use ML libraries (e.g., scikit-learn, TensorFlow, PyTorch.), and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-03-24 Mahmoud Yaseen , Xu Wu