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Re-randomization has gained popularity as a tool for experiment-based causal inference due to its superior covariate balance and statistical efficiency compared to classic randomized experiments. However, the basic re-randomization method,…
In pragmatic cluster randomized controlled trials (PCRCTs), healthcare providers are randomized while both providers and patients may deviate from the assigned intervention. In many PCRCTs, cluster-level implementation is measured using…
Bayesian profile regression mixture models (BPRM) allow to assess a health risk in a multi-exposed population. These mixture models cluster individuals according to their exposure profile and their health risk. However, their results, based…
In the development of new cancer treatment, an essential step is to determine the maximum tolerated dose (MTD) via phase I clinical trials. Generally speaking, phase I trial designs can be classified as either model-based or algorithm-based…
We propose a Bayesian optimal phase 2 design for jointly monitoring efficacy and toxicity, referred to as BOP2-TE, to improve the operating characteristics of the BOP2 design proposed by Zhou et al. (2017). BOP2-TE utilizes a…
Conformal prediction has emerged as a popular technique for facilitating valid predictive inference across a spectrum of machine learning models, under minimal assumption of exchangeability. Recently, Hoff (2023) showed that full conformal…
Unblinded sample size re-estimation (SSR) is often planned in a clinical trial when there is large uncertainty about the true treatment effect. For Proof-of Concept (PoC) in a Phase II dose finding study, contrast test can be adopted to…
Dual agent dose-finding trials study the effect of a combination of more than one agent, where the objective is to find the Maximum Tolerated Dose Combination (MTC), the combination of doses of the two agents that is associated with a…
This study introduces an iterative Bayesian Robbins--Monro (IBRM) sequence, which unites the classical Robbins--Monro sequence with statistical estimation for faster root-finding under noisy observations. Although the standard…
This paper applies the Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) statistical ensemble technique to estimate small molecule solvation free energies. There is a wide range of methods available for predicting solvation free energies, ranging from…
We consider a Bayesian framework based on "probability of decision" for dose-finding trial designs. The proposed PoD-BIN design evaluates the posterior predictive probabilities of up-and-down decisions. In PoD-BIN, multiple grades of…
The Bayesian inversion method demonstrates significant potential for solving inverse problems, enabling both point estimation and uncertainty quantification (UQ). However, Bayesian maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimation may become unstable…
An early phase clinical trial is the first step in evaluating the effects in humans of a potential new anti-disease agent or combination of agents. Usually called "phase I" or "phase I/II" trials, these experiments typically have the…
We assess the accuracy of Bayesian polynomial extrapolations from small parameter values, x, to large values of x. We consider a set of polynomials of fixed order, intended as a proxy for a fixed-order effective field theory (EFT)…
Existing causal methods for time-varying exposure and time-varying confounding focus on estimating the average causal effect of a time-varying binary treatment on an end-of-study outcome, offering limited tools for characterizing marginal…
Scientific machine learning increasingly uses spectral methods to understand physical systems. Current spectral learning approaches provide only point estimates without uncertainty quantification, limiting their use in safety-critical…
In parametric Bayesian designs of early phase cancer clinical trials with drug combinations exploring a discrete set of partially ordered doses, several authors claimed that there is no added value in including an interaction term to model…
FDA's Project Optimus initiative for oncology drug development emphasizes selecting a dose that optimizes both efficacy and safety. When an inferentially adaptive Phase 2/3 design with dose selection is implemented to comply with the…
Throughout the different phases of a drug development program, randomized trials are used to establish the tolerability, safety, and efficacy of a candidate drug. At each stage one aims to optimize the design of future studies by…
Partially-observed Boolean dynamical systems (POBDS) are a general class of nonlinear models with application in estimation and control of Boolean processes based on noisy and incomplete measurements. The optimal minimum mean square error…