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Causal graphs may inform covariate adjustment for estimating causal effects and improve estimation efficiency by exploiting the graphical structure. In many applications, however, the target causal parameter may not be point-identified due…

We study stochastic systems characterized by difference inclusions. Such stochastic differential inclusions are defined by set-valued maps involving the current state and stochastic input. For such systems, we investigate the problem of…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-08-29 Masoumeh Ghanbarpour , Sriram Sankaranarayanan

Practitioners use feature importance to rank and eliminate weak predictors during model development in an effort to simplify models and improve generality. Unfortunately, they also routinely conflate such feature importance measures with…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-06-09 Terence Parr , James D. Wilson , Jeff Hamrick

In causal inference with observational studies, synthetic control (SC) has emerged as a prominent tool. SC has traditionally been applied to aggregate-level datasets, but more recent work has extended its use to individual-level data. As…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-28 Saeyoung Rho , Andrew Tang , Noah Bergam , Rachel Cummings , Vishal Misra

We provide a novel characterization of semiparametric efficiency in a generic supervised learning setting where the outcome mean function -- defined as the conditional expectation of the outcome of interest given the other observed…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-22 Harrison H. Li

Selection as Power argued that upstream selection authority, rather than internal objective misalignment, constitutes a primary source of risk in high-stakes agentic systems. However, the original framework was static: governance…

Multiagent Systems · Computer Science 2026-03-03 Jose Manuel de la Chica Rodriguez , Juan Manuel Vera Díaz

In the present paper, several properties concerning generalized derivatives of multifunctions implicitly defined by set-valued inclusions are studied by techniques of variational analysis. Set-valued inclusions are problems formalizing the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2020-06-23 Amos Uderzo

A novel functional additive model is proposed which is uniquely modified and constrained to model nonlinear interactions between a treatment indicator and a potentially large number of functional and/or scalar pretreatment covariates. The…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-01-26 Hyung Park , Eva Petkova , Thaddeus Tarpey , R. Todd Ogden

Without a control group, the most widespread methodologies for estimating causal effects cannot be applied. To fill this gap, we propose the Machine Learning Control Method, a new approach for causal panel analysis that estimates causal…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-10-28 Augusto Cerqua , Marco Letta , Fiammetta Menchetti

The present paper deals with the perturbation analysis of set-valued inclusion problems, a problem format whose relevance has recently emerged in such contexts as robust and vector optimization as well as in vector equilibrium theory. The…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2024-05-03 Amos Uderzo

Causal discovery in time series is increasingly performed using nonlinear machine-learning models, yet the resulting causal relationships are almost always summarized by scalar edge scores. We argue that this practice obscures the true…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-29 Valentina V. Kuskova , Dmitry Zaytsev , Michael Coppedge

We develop a generalized control function approach to production function estimation. Our approach accommodates settings in which productivity evolves jointly with other unobservable factors such as latent demand shocks and the…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-12-10 Ulrich Doraszelski , Lixiong Li

We explore the influence of framing on decision-making, where some products are framed (e.g., displayed, recommended, endorsed, or labeled). We introduce a novel choice function that captures observed variations in framed alternatives.…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2025-02-04 Paul H. Y. Cheung , Yusufcan Masatlioglu

A fundamental concept in control theory is that of controllability, where any system state can be reached through an appropriate choice of control inputs. Indeed, a large body of classical and modern approaches are designed for controllable…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2022-06-13 Yonathan Efroni , Sham Kakade , Akshay Krishnamurthy , Cyril Zhang

We consider point estimation and inference for the treatment effect path of a policy. Examples include dynamic treatment effects in microeconomics, impulse response functions in macroeconomics, and event study paths in finance. We present…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-05-20 Simon Freyaldenhoven , Christian Hansen

We study causal inference in sample selection models where a continuous or multivalued treatment affects both outcome and their observability (eg., employment or survey response). We generalized the widely used Lee (2009)'s bounds for…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-10-29 Ying-Ying Lee , Chu-An Liu

Dynamic treatment regimes or policies are a sequence of decision functions over multiple stages that are tailored to individual features. One important class of treatment policies in practice, namely multi-stage stationary treatment…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-01-09 Daiqi Gao , Yufeng Liu , Donglin Zeng

Instrumental variable (IV) methods are widely used to infer treatment effects in the presence of unmeasured confounding. In this paper, we study nonparametric inference with an IV under a separable binary treatment choice model, which…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-03 Chan Park , Eric Tchetgen Tchetgen

A non-parametric extension of control variates is presented. These leverage gradient information on the sampling density to achieve substantial variance reduction. It is not required that the sampling density be normalised. The novel…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-04-05 Chris J. Oates , Mark Girolami , Nicolas Chopin

Multidimensional heterogeneity and endogeneity are important features of a wide class of econometric models. With control variables to correct for endogeneity, nonparametric identification of treatment effects requires strong support…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-01-28 Whitney K. Newey , Sami Stouli