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The purpose of this paper is to propose a time-varying vector autoregressive model (TV-VAR) for forecasting multivariate time series. The model is casted into a state-space form that allows flexible description and analysis. The volatility…
Many systems arising in biological applications are subject to periodic forcing. In these systems the forcing parameter is not only time-varying but also known to have a periodic structure. We present an approach to estimating periodic,…
High-frequency sampled multivariate continuous time autoregressive moving average processes are investigated. We obtain asymptotic expansion for the spectral density of the sampled MCARMA process $(Y_{n\Delta})_{n \in \mathbb{Z}}$ as…
This paper introduces multivariate Poisson autoregressive models with exogenous covariates (PoARX) for modelling multivariate time series of counts. We obtain conditions for the PoARX process to be stationary and ergodic before proposing a…
We propose a novel algorithm for image reconstruction in radio interferometry. The ill-posed inverse problem associated with the incomplete Fourier sampling identified by the visibility measurements is regularized by the assumption of…
The empirical wavelet transform is an adaptive multiresolution analysis tool based on the idea of building filters on a data-driven partition of the Fourier domain. However, existing 2D extensions are constrained by the shape of the…
The autoregressive (AR) model is a widely used model to understand time series data. Traditionally, the innovation noise of the AR is modeled as Gaussian. However, many time series applications, for example, financial time series data, are…
Time-series forecasting underpins critical decisions across aviation, energy, retail and health. Classical autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models offer interpretability via coefficients but struggle with nonlinearities,…
This paper proposes a parsimoniously time varying parameter vector autoregressive model (with exogenous variables, VARX) and studies the properties of the Lasso and adaptive Lasso as estimators of this model. The parameters of the model are…
Time series foundation models (TSFMs) have recently achieved remarkable success in universal forecasting by leveraging large-scale pretraining on diverse time series data. Complementing this progress, incorporating frequency-domain…
Complex time series models such as (the sum of) ARMA$(p,q)$ models with additional noise, random walks, rounding errors and/or drifts are increasingly used for data analysis in fields such as biology, ecology, engineering and economics…
The integration of Fourier transform and deep learning opens new avenues for time series forecasting. We reconsider the Fourier transform from a basis functions perspective. Specifically, the real and imaginary parts of the frequency…
We propose an approach for improving sequence modeling based on autoregressive normalizing flows. Each autoregressive transform, acting across time, serves as a moving frame of reference, removing temporal correlations, and simplifying the…
This paper explores a class of empirical Bayes methods for level-dependent threshold selection in wavelet shrinkage. The prior considered for each wavelet coefficient is a mixture of an atom of probability at zero and a heavy-tailed…
The classical vector autoregressive model is a fundamental tool for multivariate time series analysis. However, it involves too many parameters when the number of time series and lag order are even moderately large. This paper proposes to…
The Parareal algorithm, which is related to multiple shooting, was introduced for solving evolution problems in a time-parallel manner. The algorithm was then extended to solve time-periodic problems. We are interested here in time-periodic…
We seek to narrow the gap between parametric and nonparametric modelling of stationary time series processes. The approach is inspired by recent advances in focused inference and model selection techniques. The paper generalises and extends…
In the autoregressive process of first order AR(1), a homogeneous correlated time series $u_t$ is recursively constructed as $u_t = q\; u_{t-1} + \sigma \;\epsilon_t$, using random Gaussian deviates $\epsilon_t$ and fixed values for the…
Modeling power electronic converters at frequencies close to or above half the switching frequency has been difficult due to the time-variant and discontinuous switching actions. This paper uses the properties of moving Fourier coefficients…
This article introduces a novel dynamic framework to Bayesian model averaging for time-varying parameter quantile regressions. By employing sequential Markov chain Monte Carlo, we combine empirical estimates derived from dynamically chosen…