Related papers: Tobit models for count time series

In this paper we discuss dynamic ARMA-type regression models for time series taking values in $(0,\infty)$. In the proposed model, the conditional mean is modeled by a dynamic structure containing autoregressive and moving average terms,…

Celestial objects exhibit a wide range of variability in brightness at different wavebands. Surprisingly, the most common methods for characterizing time series in statistics -- parametric autoregressive modeling -- is rarely used to…

This paper aims to study data driven model selection criteria for a large class of time series, which includes ARMA or AR($\infty$) processes, as well as GARCH or ARCH($\infty$), APARCH and many others processes. We tackled the challenging…

Multiplicative error models (MEMs) are commonly used for real-valued time series, but they cannot be applied to discrete-valued count time series as the involved multiplication would not preserve the integer nature of the data. Thus, the…

This paper studies the model selection problem in a large class of causal time series models, which includes both the ARMA or AR($\infty$) processes, as well as the GARCH or ARCH($\infty$), APARCH, ARMA-GARCH and many others processes. We…

We introduce a general approach for modeling the dynamic of multivariate time series when the data are of mixed type (binary/count/continuous). Our method is quite flexible and conditionally on past values, each coordinate at time $t$ can…

Time series foundation models have shown impressive performance on a variety of tasks, across a wide range of domains, even in zero-shot settings. However, most of these models are designed to handle short univariate time series as an…

We introduce a novel modeling approach for time series imputation and forecasting, tailored to address the challenges often encountered in real-world data, such as irregular samples, missing data, or unaligned measurements from multiple…

Autoregressive generative models are commonly used, especially for those tasks involving sequential data. They have, however, been plagued by a slew of inherent flaws due to the intrinsic characteristics of chain-style conditional modeling…

This paper introduces Type 2 Tobit Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (TOBART-2). BART can produce accurate individual-specific treatment effect estimates. However, in practice estimates are often biased by sample selection. We extend the…

In this work, we study the problem of aggregating a finite number of predictors for nonstationary sub-linear processes. We provide oracle inequalities relying essentially on three ingredients: (1) a uniform bound of the $\ell^1$ norm of the…

Extensive efforts have been made to boost the performance in the domain of language models by introducing various attention-based transformers. However, the inclusion of linear layers with large dimensions contributes to significant…

Modern large-scale data analysis increasingly faces the challenge of achieving computational efficiency as well as statistical accuracy, as classical statistically efficient methods often fall short in the first regard. In the context of…

We review autoregressive models for the analysis of multivariate count time series. In doing so, we discuss the choice of a suitable distribution for a vectors of count random variables. This review focus on three main approaches taken for…

In this paper we introduce a new approach for approximately counting in bounded degree systems with higher-order constraints. Our main result is an algorithm to approximately count the number of solutions to a CNF formula $\Phi$ when the…

To monitor critical infrastructure, high quality sensors sampled at a high frequency are increasingly used. However, as they produce huge amounts of data, only simple aggregates are stored. This removes outliers and fluctuations that could…

In the current study, a brand-new SINARS(1) model is proposed for stationary discrete time series defined on $\boldsymbol{Z}$, based on extended binomial distribution and the Pegram's operator. The model effectively characterizes the series…

We study the problem of minimizing the average of a very large number of smooth functions, which is of key importance in training supervised learning models. One of the most celebrated methods in this context is the SAGA algorithm. Despite…

This paper investigates the cumulative Integer-Valued Autoregressive model of infinite order, denoted as INAR($\infty$), a class of processes crucial for modeling count time series and equivalent to discrete-time Hawkes processes. We…

A novel approach for dealing with censored competing risks regression data is proposed. This is implemented by a mixture of accelerated failure time (AFT) models for a competing risks scenario within a cluster-weighted modelling (CWM)…