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Many researchers have applied classical statistical decision theory to evaluate treatment choices and learn optimal policies. However, because this framework is based solely on realized outcomes under chosen decisions and ignores…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-10-21 Benedikt Koch , Kosuke Imai

Deep NLP models have been shown to learn spurious correlations, leaving them brittle to input perturbations. Recent work has shown that counterfactual or contrastive data -- i.e. minimally perturbed inputs -- can reveal these weaknesses,…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2022-03-31 Bhargavi Paranjape , Matthew Lamm , Ian Tenney

As counterfactual examples become increasingly popular for explaining decisions of deep learning models, it is essential to understand what properties quantitative evaluation metrics do capture and equally important what they do not…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-11-02 Frederik Hvilshøj , Alexandros Iosifidis , Ira Assent

There has been considerable recent interest in explainability in AI, especially with black-box machine learning models. As correctly observed by the planning community, when the application at hand is not a single-shot decision or…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-02-14 Vaishak Belle

There is growing excitement about the potential of Language Models (LMs) to accelerate scientific discovery. Falsifying hypotheses is key to scientific progress, as it allows claims to be iteratively refined over time. This process requires…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-27 Shiven Sinha , Shashwat Goel , Ponnurangam Kumaraguru , Jonas Geiping , Matthias Bethge , Ameya Prabhu

With the increasing deployment of machine learning systems in practice, transparency and explainability have become serious issues. Contrastive explanations are considered to be useful and intuitive, in particular when it comes to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-01-05 André Artelt , Barbara Hammer

Existing tools for explaining complex models and systems are associational rather than causal and do not provide mechanistic understanding. We propose a new notion called counterfactual explainability for causal attribution that is…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-10-07 Zijun Gao , Qingyuan Zhao

Counterfactual prediction is about predicting outcome of the unobserved situation from the data. For example, given patient is on drug A, what would be the outcome if she switch to drug B. Most of existing works focus on modeling…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-10-29 Yanbo Xu , Cao Xiao , Jimeng Sun

Counterfactuals refer to minimally edited inputs that cause a model's prediction to change, serving as a promising approach to explaining the model's behavior. Large language models (LLMs) excel at generating English counterfactuals and…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-04-07 Qianli Wang , Van Bach Nguyen , Yihong Liu , Fedor Splitt , Nils Feldhus , Christin Seifert , Hinrich Schütze , Sebastian Möller , Vera Schmitt

In model extraction attacks, the goal is to reveal the parameters of a black-box machine learning model by querying the model for a selected set of data points. Due to an increasing demand for explanations, this may involve counterfactual…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-03-04 Daan Otto , Jannis Kurtz , Dick den Hertog , Ilker Birbil

A common approach for testing fairness issues in text-based classifiers is through the use of counterfactuals: does the classifier output change if a sensitive attribute in the input is changed? Existing counterfactual generation methods…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2022-06-29 Zee Fryer , Vera Axelrod , Ben Packer , Alex Beutel , Jilin Chen , Kellie Webster

Counterfactual explanations are an increasingly popular form of post hoc explanation due to their (i) applicability across problem domains, (ii) proposed legal compliance (e.g., with GDPR), and (iii) reliance on the contrastive nature of…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2023-03-17 Greta Warren , Mark T. Keane , Christophe Gueret , Eoin Delaney

We predict credit applications with off-the-shelf, interchangeable black-box classifiers and we explain single predictions with counterfactual explanations. Counterfactual explanations expose the minimal changes required on the input data…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2018-11-19 Rory Mc Grath , Luca Costabello , Chan Le Van , Paul Sweeney , Farbod Kamiab , Zhao Shen , Freddy Lecue

Balanced representation learning methods have been applied successfully to counterfactual inference from observational data. However, approaches that account for survival outcomes are relatively limited. Survival data are frequently…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-03-04 Paidamoyo Chapfuwa , Serge Assaad , Shuxi Zeng , Michael J. Pencina , Lawrence Carin , Ricardo Henao

Lewis' theory of counterfactuals is the foundation of many contemporary notions of causality. In this paper, we extend this theory in the temporal direction to enable symbolic counterfactual reasoning on infinite sequences, such as…

Logic in Computer Science · Computer Science 2023-06-16 Bernd Finkbeiner , Julian Siber

Counterfactual explanations offer an intuitive and straightforward way to explain black-box models and offer algorithmic recourse to individuals. To address the need for plausible explanations, existing work has primarily relied on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-12-19 Patrick Altmeyer , Mojtaba Farmanbar , Arie van Deursen , Cynthia C. S. Liem

The trustworthiness of AI decision-making systems is increasingly important. A key feature of such systems is the ability to provide recommendations for how an individual may reverse a negative decision, a problem known as algorithmic…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-05-13 Drago Plecko , Collin Wang , Elias Bareinboim

Explanations play a variety of roles in various recommender systems, from a legally mandated afterthought, through an integral element of user experience, to a key to persuasiveness. A natural and useful form of an explanation is the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-11 Jakub Černý , Jiří Němeček , Ivan Dovica , Jakub Mareček

Algorithmic recourse provides individuals who receive undesirable outcomes from machine learning systems with minimum-cost improvements to achieve a desirable outcome. However, machine learning models often get updated, so the recourse may…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-28 Kshitij Kayastha , Vasilis Gkatzelis , Shahin Jabbari

In many applications, it is important to be able to explain the decisions of machine learning systems. An increasingly popular approach has been to seek to provide \emph{counterfactual instance explanations}. These specify close possible…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2021-09-22 Adam White , Artur d'Avila Garcez