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Many frameworks exist to infer cause and effect relations in complex nonlinear systems but a complete theory is lacking. A new framework is presented that is fully nonlinear, provides a complete information theoretic disentanglement of…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-01-12 Peter Jan van Leeuwen , Michael DeCaria , Nachiketa Chakaborty , Manuel Pulido

I propose a novel framework that integrates stochastic differential equations (SDEs) with deep generative models to improve uncertainty quantification in machine learning applications involving structured and temporal data. This approach,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-01-09 James Rice

Most existing methods that address out-of-distribution (OOD) generalization for node classification on graphs primarily focus on a specific type of data biases, such as label selection bias or structural bias. However, anticipating the type…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-07 Guoxin Chen , Yongqing Wang , Fangda Guo , Qinglang Guo , Jiangli Shao , Huawei Shen , Xueqi Cheng

Testing conditional independence has many applications, such as in Bayesian network learning and causal discovery. Different test methods have been proposed. However, existing methods generally can not work when only discretized…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-03-19 Boyang Sun , Yu Yao , Guang-Yuan Hao , Yumou Qiu , Kun Zhang

While feedback loops are known to play important roles in many complex systems, their existence is ignored in a large part of the causal discovery literature, as systems are typically assumed to be acyclic from the outset. When applying…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-09-18 Joris M. Mooij , Tom Claassen

We consider continuous-time survival or more general event-history settings, where the aim is to infer the causal effect of a time-dependent treatment process. This is formalised as the effect on the outcome event of a (possibly…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-04-23 Kjetil Røysland , Pål Ryalen , Mari Nygård , Vanessa Didelez

When domain knowledge is limited and experimentation is restricted by ethical, financial, or time constraints, practitioners turn to observational causal discovery methods to recover the causal structure, exploiting the statistical…

Graphical models are ubiquitous for summarizing conditional relations in multivariate data. In many applications involving multivariate time series, it is of interest to learn an interaction graph that treats each individual time series as…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-09-01 Anirban Bhattacharya , Jan Johannes , Suhasini Subba Rao

Causal discovery, the task of inferring causal structure from data, has the potential to uncover mechanistic insights from biological experiments, especially those involving perturbations. However, causal discovery algorithms over larger…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-01 Menghua Wu , Yujia Bao , Regina Barzilay , Tommi Jaakkola

Stochasticity plays a key role in many biological systems, necessitating the calibration of stochastic mathematical models to interpret associated data. For model parameters to be estimated reliably, it is typically the case that they must…

Causal discovery, i.e., learning the causal graph from data, is often the first step toward the identification and estimation of causal effects, a key requirement in numerous scientific domains. Causal discovery is hampered by two main…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-15 Ehsan Mokhtarian , Sepehr Elahi , Sina Akbari , Negar Kiyavash

Independence and conditional independence are fundamental concepts for reasoning about groups of random variables in probabilistic programs. Verification methods for independence are still nascent, and existing methods cannot handle…

Logic in Computer Science · Computer Science 2021-05-04 Jialu Bao , Simon Docherty , Justin Hsu , Alexandra Silva

We consider the problem of learning the causal MAG of a system from observational data in the presence of latent variables and selection bias. Constraint-based methods are one of the main approaches for solving this problem, but the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-10-26 Sina Akbari , Ehsan Mokhtarian , AmirEmad Ghassami , Negar Kiyavash

The aim in many sciences is to understand the mechanisms that underlie the observed distribution of variables, starting from a set of initial hypotheses. Causal discovery allows us to infer mechanisms as sets of cause and effect…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-05 Ashka Shah , Adela DePavia , Nathaniel Hudson , Ian Foster , Rick Stevens

This study demonstrates the existence of a testable condition for the identification of the causal effect of a treatment on an outcome in observational data, which relies on two sets of variables: observed covariates to be controlled for…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-05-20 Martin Huber , Jannis Kueck

The discovery of causal relationships in a set of random variables is a fundamental objective of science and has also recently been argued as being an essential component towards real machine intelligence. One class of causal discovery…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-02-01 Tim Tse , Zhitang Chen , Shengyu Zhu , Yue Liu

Constraint-based causal discovery from limited data is a notoriously difficult challenge due to the many borderline independence test decisions. Several approaches to improve the reliability of the predictions by exploiting redundancy in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-01-27 Sara Magliacane , Tom Claassen , Joris M. Mooij

We consider graphs that represent pairwise marginal independencies amongst a set of variables (for instance, the zero entries of a covariance matrix for normal data). We characterize the directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) that faithfully…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2015-08-04 Johannes Textor , Alexander Idelberger , Maciej Liśkiewicz

Spherical and hyperspherical data are commonly encountered in diverse applied research domains, underscoring the vital task of assessing independence within such data structures. In this context, we investigate the properties of test…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-01-23 Marija Cuparić , Bruno Ebner , Bojana Milošević

To gain deeper insights into a complex sensor system through the lens of causality, we present common and individual causal mechanism estimation (CICME), a novel three-step approach to inferring causal mechanisms from heterogeneous data…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-21 Jingyi Yu , Tim Pychynski , Marco F. Huber
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