Related papers: Rare events in a stochastic vegetation-water dynam…

Finding and sampling rare trajectories in dynamical systems is a difficult computational task underlying numerous problems and applications. In this paper we show how to construct Metropolis- Hastings Monte Carlo methods that can…

We present a novel and flexible data-driven framework for estimating the response of higher-order moments of nonlinear stochastic systems to small external perturbations. The classical Generalized Fluctuation--Dissipation Theorem (GFDT)…

Complex systems are sometimes subject to non Gaussian alpha stable Levy fluctuations. A new method is devised to estimate this uncertain parameter and other system parameters, using observations on either mean exit time or escape…

We present a novel probabilistic deep learning approach, the 'Stochastic Latent Transformer' (SLT), designed for the efficient reduced-order modelling of stochastic partial differential equations. Stochastically driven flow models are…

We infer both microscopic and macroscopic behaviors of a three-dimensional chaotic fluid flow using reservoir computing. In our procedure of the inference, we assume no prior knowledge of a physical process of a fluid flow except that its…

Stochastic mathematical models are essential tools for understanding and predicting complex phenomena. The purpose of this work is to study the exit times of a stochastic dynamical system-specifically, the mean exit time and the…

We propose a new method to obtain kinetic properties of infrequent events from molecular dynamics simulation. The procedure employs a recently introduced variational approach [Valsson and Parrinello, Phys. Rev. Lett. 113, 090601 (2014)] to…

We use the mean exit time to quantify macroscopic dynamical behaviors of stochastic dynamical systems driven by tempered L\'evy fluctuations, which are solutions of nonlocal elliptic equations. Firstly, we construct a new numerical scheme…

Stochastic fluctuations are central to the understanding of extinction dynamics. In the context of population models they allow for the description of the transition from the vicinity of a non-trivial fixed point of the deterministic…

We consider a linear stochastic fluid network under Markov modulation, with a focus on the probability that the joint storage level attains a value in a rare set at a given point in time. The main objective is to develop efficient…

We investigate the thermodynamics as well as the population dynamics of ecosystems based on a stochastic approach in which the number of individuals of the several species of the ecosystem are treated as stochastic variables. The several…

Spatio-temporal processes in environmental applications are often assumed to follow a Gaussian model, possibly after some transformation. However, heterogeneity in space and time might have a pattern that will not be accommodated by…

We introduce a family of stochastic models motivated by the study of nonequilibrium steady states of fluid equations. These models decompose the deterministic dynamics of interest into fundamental building blocks, i.e., minimal vector…

Extracting governing stochastic differential equation models from elusive data is crucial to understand and forecast dynamics for complex systems. We devise a method to extract the drift term and estimate the diffusion coefficient of a…

We present a numerical method for learning unknown nonautonomous stochastic dynamical system, i.e., stochastic system subject to time dependent excitation or control signals. Our basic assumption is that the governing equations for the…

This paper deals with uncertain dynamical systems in which predictions about the future state of a system are assessed by so called pseudomeasures. Two special cases are stochastic dynamical systems, where the pseudomeasure is the…

Transitional localised turbulence in shear flows is known to either decay to an absorbing laminar state or proliferate via splitting. The average passage times from one state to the other depend super-exponentially on the Reynolds number…

The meaning of thermodynamic descriptions is found in large-deviations scaling of the fluctuations probabilities. The primary large-deviations rate function is the entropy, which is the basis for both fluctuation theorems and for…

Predicting the occurence of rare and extreme events in complex systems is a well-known problem in non-equilibrium physics. These events can have huge impacts on human societies. New approaches have emerged in the last ten years, which…

Solving decision problems in complex, stochastic environments is often achieved by estimating the expected outcome of decisions via Monte Carlo sampling. However, sampling may overlook rare, but important events, which can severely impact…