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For predicting the kinetics of nucleic acid reactions, continuous-time Markov chains (CTMCs) are widely used. The rate of a reaction can be obtained through the mean first passage time (MFPT) of its CTMC. However, a typical issue in CTMCs…

We develop a systematic matrix-analytic approach, based on intertwinings of Markov semigroups, for proving theorems about hitting-time distributions for finite-state Markov chains -- an approach that (sometimes) deepens understanding of the…

Continuous time Bayesian networks (CTBNs) describe structured stochastic processes with finitely many states that evolve over continuous time. A CTBN is a directed (possibly cyclic) dependency graph over a set of variables, each of which…

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms provide a very general recipe for estimating properties of complicated distributions. While their use has become commonplace and there is a large literature on MCMC theory and practice, MCMC users…

Recently there have been exciting developments in Monte Carlo methods, with the development of new MCMC and sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) algorithms which are based on continuous-time, rather than discrete-time, Markov processes. This has…

Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms are often used for approximate inference inside learning, but their slow mixing can be difficult to diagnose and the approximations can seriously degrade learning. To alleviate these issues, we…

Recommender systems are widely used for suggesting books, education materials, and products to users by exploring their behaviors. In reality, users' preferences often change over time, leading to studies on time-dependent recommender…

This paper establishes a Markov chain model as a unified framework for understanding information consumption processes in complex networks, with clear implications to the Internet and big-data technologies. In particular, the proposed model…

We propose a Bayesian nonparametric mixture model for prediction- and information extraction tasks with an efficient inference scheme. It models categorical-valued time series that exhibit dynamics from multiple underlying patterns (e.g.…

We study the verification of a finite continuous-time Markov chain (CTMC) C against a linear real-time specification given as a deterministic timed automaton (DTA) A with finite or Muller acceptance conditions. The central question that we…

Opaque algorithms disseminate and mediate the content that users consume on online social media platforms. This algorithmic mediation serves users with contents of their liking, on the other hand, it may cause several inadvertent risks to…

Diffusion models have achieved huge empirical success in data generation tasks. Recently, some efforts have been made to adapt the framework of diffusion models to discrete state space, providing a more natural approach for modeling…

Markov chains are fundamental models for stochastic dynamics, with applications in a wide range of areas such as population dynamics, queueing systems, reinforcement learning, and Monte Carlo methods. Estimating the transition matrix and…

Stochastic models such as Continuous-Time Markov Chains (CTMC) and Stochastic Hybrid Automata (SHA) are powerful formalisms to model and to reason about the dynamics of biological systems, due to their ability to capture the stochasticity…

Markov chain model is widely applied in many fields, especially the field of prediction. The classical Discrete-time Markov chain(DTMC) is a widely used method for prediction. However, the classical DTMC model has some limitation when the…

Jump stochastic volatility models are central to financial econometrics for volatility forecasting, portfolio risk management, and derivatives pricing. Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms are computationally unfeasible for the…

Traditional methods for unsupervised learning of finite mixture models require to evaluate the likelihood of all components of the mixture. This becomes computationally prohibitive when the number of components is large, as it is, for…

Multiplex networks are a common modeling framework for interconnected systems and multimodal data, yet we still lack fundamental insights for how multiplexity affects stochastic processes. We introduce a novel ``Markov chains of Markov…

Digital technologies and social algorithms are revolutionizing the media landscape, altering how we select and consume health information. Extending the selectivity paradigm with research on social media engagement, the convergence…

Graph dynamical systems (GDS) model dynamic processes on a (static) graph. Stochastic GDS has been used for network-based epidemics models such as the contact process and the reversible contact process. In this paper, we consider stochastic…