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New text as data techniques offer a great promise: the ability to inductively discover measures that are useful for testing social science theories of interest from large collections of text. We introduce a conceptual framework for making…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-02-08 Naoki Egami , Christian J. Fong , Justin Grimmer , Margaret E. Roberts , Brandon M. Stewart

The fundamental challenge of drawing causal inference is that counterfactual outcomes are not fully observed for any unit. Furthermore, in observational studies, treatment assignment is likely to be confounded. Many statistical methods have…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-08-01 Harsh Parikh , Carlos Varjao , Louise Xu , Eric Tchetgen Tchetgen

Cluster randomized trials (CRTs) are a popular design to study the effect of interventions in infectious disease settings. However, standard analysis of CRTs primarily relies on strong parametric methods, usually mixed-effect models to…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-09-23 Chan Park , Hyunseung Kang

It is often critical for prediction models to be robust to distributional shifts between training and testing data. From a causal perspective, the challenge is to distinguish the stable causal relationships from the unstable spurious…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-01-15 Shuxi Zeng , Murat Ali Bayir , Joesph J. Pfeiffer , Denis Charles , Emre Kiciman

Causal inference is a science with multi-disciplinary evolution and applications. On the one hand, it measures effects of treatments in observational data based on experimental designs and rigorous statistical inference to draw causal…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-09-05 Jingying Zeng , Run Wang

Despite the increasing relevance of forecasting methods, causal implications of these algorithms remain largely unexplored. This is concerning considering that, even under simplifying assumptions such as causal sufficiency, the statistical…

Interpretability in machine learning is critical for the safe deployment of learned policies across legally-regulated and safety-critical domains. While gradient-based approaches in reinforcement learning have achieved tremendous success in…

Methods for extending -- generalizing or transporting -- inferences from a randomized trial to a target population involve conditioning on a large set of covariates that is sufficient for rendering the randomized and non-randomized groups…

Causal inference is at the heart of empirical research in natural and social sciences and is critical for scientific discovery and informed decision making. The gold standard in causal inference is performing randomized controlled trials;…

Databases · Computer Science 2020-04-09 Babak Salimi , Harsh Parikh , Moe Kayali , Sudeepa Roy , Lise Getoor , Dan Suciu

Ensuring generalization to unseen environments remains a challenge. Domain shift can lead to substantially degraded performance unless shifts are well-exercised within the available training environments. We introduce a simple robust…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-10-20 Yilun Xu , Tommi Jaakkola

In longitudinal studies where units are embedded in space or a social network, interference may arise, meaning that a unit's outcome can depend on treatment histories of others. The presence of interference poses significant challenges for…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-26 Ye Wang , Michael Jetsupphasuk

Understanding the effects of interventions is central to scientific progress, with randomized controlled trials (RCTs) regarded as the gold standard for causal inference in many applied fields. However, RCTs are costly, time-consuming, and…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-27 Drago Plecko , Patrik Okanovic , Torsten Hoefler , Elias Bareinboim

Applied researchers in biomedicine and related fields are often interested in estimating the causal effect of a treatment or intervention. Although randomized clinical trials are considered the gold standard for establishing causal effects,…

Evidence shows that in a significant number of cases the current methods of research do not allow for reproducible and falsifiable procedures of scientific investigation. As a consequence, the majority of critical decisions at all levels,…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2018-09-20 Jorge Faleiro

Causality lays the foundation for the trajectory of our world. Causal inference (CI), which aims to infer intrinsic causal relations among variables of interest, has emerged as a crucial research topic. Nevertheless, the lack of observation…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-21 Yaochen Zhu , Yinhan He , Jing Ma , Mengxuan Hu , Sheng Li , Jundong Li

Identifiable causal representation learning seeks to uncover the true causal relationships underlying a data generation process. In medical imaging, this presents opportunities to improve the generalisability and robustness of task-specific…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-11-20 Rajat Rasal , Avinash Kori , Ben Glocker

We consider the task of evaluating policies of algorithmic resource allocation through randomized controlled trials (RCTs). Such policies are tasked with optimizing the utilization of limited intervention resources, with the goal of…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2023-02-07 Aditya Mate , Bryan Wilder , Aparna Taneja , Milind Tambe

A pressing question resulting from global warming is how infectious diseases will be affected by climate change. Answering this question requires research into the effects of weather on the population dynamics of transmission and infection;…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2024-02-21 Laura Andrea Barrero Guevara , Sarah C Kramer , Tobias Kurth , Matthieu Domenech de Cellès

We introduce causal inference reasoning to cross-over trials, with a focus on Thorough QT (TQT) studies. For such trials, we propose different sets of assumptions and consider their impact on the modelling strategy and estimation procedure.…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-05-31 Jeppe Ekstrand Halkjær Madsen , Thomas Scheike , Christian Pipper

We propose a novel machine learning approach for inferring causal variables of a target variable from observations. Our focus is on directly inferring a set of causal factors without requiring full causal graph reconstruction, which is…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-01 Jang-Hyun Kim , Claudia Skok Gibbs , Sangdoo Yun , Hyun Oh Song , Kyunghyun Cho