Related papers: Iterated INLA for State and Parameter Estimation i…
Latent Gaussian models are an extremely popular, flexible class of models. Bayesian inference for these models is, however, tricky and time consuming. Recently, Rue, Martino and Chopin introduced the Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation…
Fitting cross-classified multilevel models with binary response is challenging. In this setting a promising method is Bayesian inference through Integrated Nested Laplace Approximations (INLA), which performs well in several latent variable…
The Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation (INLA) has established itself as a widely used method for approximate inference on Bayesian hierarchical models which can be represented as a latent Gaussian model (LGM). INLA is based on…
A goal of data assimilation is to infer stochastic dynamical behaviors with available observations. We consider transition phenomena between metastable states for a stochastic system with (non-Gaussian) $\alpha-$stable L\'evy noise. With…
Data assimilation refers to the process of obtaining an estimate of a system's state using a model for the system's time evolution and a time series of measurements that are possibly noisy and incomplete. However, for practical reasons, the…
Implicit sampling is a weighted sampling method that is used in data assimilation, where one sequentially updates estimates of the state of a stochastic model based on a stream of noisy or incomplete data. Here we describe how to use…
Recently there has been substantial interest in spectral methods for learning dynamical systems. These methods are popular since they often offer a good tradeoff between computational and statistical efficiency. Unfortunately, they can be…
Data assimilation (DA) plays a pivotal role in diverse applications, ranging from climate predictions and weather forecasts to trajectory planning for autonomous vehicles. A prime example is the widely used ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF),…
Data assimilation (DA) in the geophysical sciences remains the cornerstone of robust forecasts from numerical models. Indeed, DA plays a crucial role in the quality of numerical weather prediction, and is a crucial building block that has…
Anderson acceleration (AA) is an extrapolation technique designed to speed-up fixed-point iterations like those arising from the iterative training of DL models. Training DL models requires large datasets processed in randomly sampled…
The marginal likelihood is a well established model selection criterion in Bayesian statistics. It also allows to efficiently calculate the marginal posterior model probabilities that can be used for Bayesian model averaging of quantities…
In this study, two classes of methods including statistical and variational data assimilation algorithms will be described. In statistical methods, the model state is updated sequentially based on the previous estimate. Variational methods,…
This paper develops methodology that provides a toolbox for routinely fitting complex models to realistic spatial point pattern data. We consider models that are based on log-Gaussian Cox processes and include local interaction in these by…
Misclassified variables used in regression models, either as a covariate or as the response, may lead to biased estimators and incorrect inference. Even though Bayesian models to adjust for misclassification error exist, it has not been…
In statistical data assimilation (SDA) and supervised machine learning (ML), we wish to transfer information from observations to a model of the processes underlying those observations. For SDA, the model consists of a set of differential…
For complex nonlinear systems, it is challenging to design algorithms that are fast, scalable, and give an accurate approximation of the stability region. This paper proposes a sampling-based approach to address these challenges. By…
Automatic machine learning of empirical models from experimental data has recently become possible as a result of increased availability of computational power and dedicated algorithms. Despite the successes of non-parametric inference and…
Sparse sensor networks in weather and ocean modeling observe only a small fraction of the system state, which destabilizes standard nudging-based data assimilation. We introduce Interpolated Discrepancy Data Assimilation (IDDA), which…
We investigate the ability to discover data assimilation (DA) schemes meant for chaotic dynamics with deep learning. The focus is on learning the analysis step of sequential DA, from state trajectories and their observations, using a simple…
We propose a technique for reformulation of state and parameter estimation problems as that of matching explicitly computable definite integrals with known kernels to data. The technique applies for a class of systems of nonlinear ordinary…