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Consider a branching system with particles moving according to an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process with drift $\mu>0$ and branching according to a law in the domain of attraction of the $(1+\beta)$-stable distribution. The mean of the branching…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-03-23 Rafał Marks , Piotr Miłoś

We study the algorithmic problem of estimating the mean of heavy-tailed random vector in $\mathbb{R}^d$, given $n$ i.i.d. samples. The goal is to design an efficient estimator that attains the optimal sub-gaussian error bound, only assuming…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-02-19 Zhixian Lei , Kyle Luh , Prayaag Venkat , Fred Zhang

Active Ornstein-Uhlenbeck particles (AOUPs) are overdamped particles in an interaction potential subject to external Ornstein-Uhlenbeck noises. They can be transformed into a system of underdamped particles under additional velocity…

Soft Condensed Matter · Physics 2019-08-14 L. L. Bonilla

We study large deviations, over a long time window $T \to \infty$, of the dynamical observables $A_n = \int_{0}^{T} x^n(t) dt$, $n=3,4,\dots$, where $x(t)$ is a centered stationary Gaussian process in continuous time. We show that, for…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2025-12-01 Alexander Valov , Baruch Meerson

Large-deviations theory deals with tails of probability distributions and the rare events of random processes, for example spreading packets of particles. Mathematically, it concerns the exponential fall-of of the density of thin-tailed…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2017-07-04 Erez Aghion , David A. Kessler , Eli Barkai

We study the dispersion of a particle whose motion dynamics can be described by a forced velocity jump process. To investigate large deviations results, we study the Chapman-Kolmogorov equation of this process in the hyperbolic scaling…

Analysis of PDEs · Mathematics 2017-10-31 Nils Caillerie

It is well-known that large deviations of random walks driven by independent and identically distributed heavy-tailed random variables are governed by the so-called principle of one large jump. We note that further subtleties hold for such…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-01-30 Harald Bernhard , Bikramjit Das

Standard statistical analysis is unable to provide reliable confidence intervals on expectation values of probability distributions that do not satisfy the conditions of the central limit theorem. We present a regression-based estimator of…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2019-06-24 Pablo Lopez Rios , Gareth J. Conduit

In the context of non-equilibrium statistical physics, the entropy production rate is an important concept to describe how far a specific state of a system is from its equilibrium state. In this paper, we establish a central limit theorem…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-09-02 Ran Wang , Lihu Xu

We establish subgeometric bounds on convergence rate of general Markov processes in the Wasserstein metric. In the discrete time setting we prove that the Lyapunov drift condition and the existence of a "good" $d$-small set imply…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-03-20 Oleg Butkovsky

We prove a functional limit theorem for vector-valued functionals of the fractional Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process, providing the foundation for the fluctuation theory of slow/fast systems driven by such a noise. Our main contribution is on the…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-03-07 Johann Gehringer , Xue-Mei Li

Large deviations for sums of i.i.d.\ random variables with stretched-exponential tails (also called Weibull or semi-exponential tails) have been well understood since the 60's, going back to Nagaev's seminal work. Many extensions in the…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-02-04 Nina Gantert , Joscha Prochno , Philipp Tuchel

In this paper we consider a semiclassical version of the wave equations with singular H\"{o}lder time-dependent propagation speeds on the lattice $\hbar\mathbb{Z}^{n}$. We allow the propagation speed to vanish leading to the weakly…

Analysis of PDEs · Mathematics 2021-05-25 Aparajita Dasgupta , Michael Ruzhansky , Abhilash Tushir

The standard Large Deviation Theory (LDT) is mathematically illustrated by the Boltzmann-Gibbs factor which describes the thermal equilibrium of short-range-interacting many-body Hamiltonian systems, the velocity distribution of which is…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2021-12-24 Ugur Tirnakli , Constantino Tsallis , Nihat Ay

We use asymptotic methods from the theory of differential equations to obtain an analytical expression for the survival probability of an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process with a potential defined over a broad domain. We form a uniformly…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2020-11-26 L. T. Giorgini , W. Moon , J. S. Wettlaufer

Large deviations for fat tailed distributions, i.e. those that decay slower than exponential, are not only relatively likely, but they also occur in a rather peculiar way where a finite fraction of the whole sample deviation is concentrated…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2015-06-03 Mario Filiasi , Giacomo Livan , Matteo Marsili , Maria Peressi , Erik Vesselli , Elia Zarinelli

Based on a version of Dudley's Wiener process on the mass shell in the momentum Minkowski space of a massive point particle, a model of a relativistic Ornstein--Uhlenbeck process is constructed by addition of a specific drift term. The…

Mathematical Physics · Physics 2017-03-22 Jürgen Potthoff , Robert Schrader

In this paper, we study the classical problem of the first passage hitting density of an Ornstein--Uhlenbeck process. We give two complementary (forward and backward) formulations of this problem and provide semi-analytical solutions for…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2018-10-11 Alexander Lipton , Vadim Kaushansky

The $d$-dimensional Ornstein--Uhlenbeck process (OUP) describes the trajectory of a particle in a $d$-dimensional, spherically symmetric, quadratic potential. The OUP is composed of a drift term weighted by a constant $\theta \geq 0$ and a…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-05-10 Hans Kersting , Antonio Orvieto , Frank Proske , Aurelien Lucchi

We consider the Graph Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (GrOU) process observed on a non-uniform discrete time grid and introduce discretised maximum likelihood estimators with parameters specific to the whole graph or specific to each component, or node.…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-07-12 Valentin Courgeau , Almut E. D. Veraart
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