Related papers: Valuing insurance against small probability risks:…
Words of estimative probability (WEP) are expressions of a statement's plausibility (probably, maybe, likely, doubt, likely, unlikely, impossible...). Multiple surveys demonstrate the agreement of human evaluators when assigning numerical…
This paper examines how Polish consumers are adapting to online insurance purchasing channels and what factors influence their preferences. Drawing on a structured survey of 100 respondents with varied demographic profiles, the study…
Random-effects models are frequently used to synthesise information from different studies in meta-analysis. While likelihood-based inference is attractive both in terms of limiting properties and of implementation, its application in…
Meta-analyses of clinical trials targeting rare events face particular challenges when the data lack adequate numbers of events for all treatment arms. Especially when the number of studies is low, standard meta-analysis methods can lead to…
This paper is concerned with learning decision makers' preferences using data on observed choices from a finite set of risky alternatives. We propose a discrete choice model with unobserved heterogeneity in consideration sets and in…
We use a series of pre-registered, incentive-compatible online experiments to investigate how people evaluate and choose among different waiting time distributions. Our main findings are threefold. First, consistent with prior literature,…
Under Solvency II, the Value-at-Risk (VaR) is applied, although there is broad consensus that the Expected Shortfall (ES) constitutes a more appropriate risk measure. Moving towards ES would necessitate specifying the corresponding ES…
Although risk awareness is fundamental to an online operating agent, it has received less attention in the challenging continuous domain and under partial observability. This paper presents a novel formulation and solution for risk-averse…
Estimating the prevalence of a medical condition, or the proportion of the population in which it occurs, is a fundamental problem in healthcare and public health. Accurate estimates of the relative prevalence across groups -- capturing,…
Considering congestion games with uncertain delays, we compute the inefficiency introduced in network routing by risk-averse agents. At equilibrium, agents may select paths that do not minimize the expected latency so as to obtain lower…
The concordance probability or C-index is a popular measure to capture the discriminatory ability of a regression model. In this article, the definition of this measure is adapted to the specific needs of the frequency and severity model,…
Social inflation, which is the rise in liability claim costs beyond general economic inflation, has become a major concern for insurers and reinsurers, yet it is difficult to quantify because litigation outcomes are heavy-tailed and the mix…
Survival outcomes are common in comparative effectiveness studies and require unique handling because they are usually incompletely observed due to right-censoring. A ``once for all'' approach for causal inference with survival outcomes…
Credit Value Adjustment (CVA) is the difference between the value of the default-free and credit-risky derivative portfolio, which can be regarded as the cost of the credit hedge. Default probabilities are therefore needed, as input…
Risk assessment instruments are used across the criminal justice system to estimate the probability of some future behavior given covariates. The estimated probabilities are then used in making decisions at the individual level. In the…
We address the weighting problem in voluntary samples under a nonignorable sample selection model. Under the assumption that the sample selection model is correctly specified, we can compute a consistent estimator of the model parameter and…
When making decisions under uncertainty, individuals often deviate from rational behavior, which can be evaluated across three dimensions: risk preference, probability weighting, and loss aversion. Given the widespread use of large language…
We propose a dependence-aware predictive modeling framework for multivariate risks stemmed from an insurance contract with bundling features - an important type of policy increasingly offered by major insurance companies. The bundling…
Customer loyalty is crucial for internet services since retaining users of a service to ensure the staying time of the service is of significance for increasing revenue. It demands the retention of customers to be high enough to meet the…
Variable annuities, as a class of retirement income products, allow equity market exposure for a policyholder's retirement fund with electable additional guarantees to limit the downside risk of the market. Management fees and guarantee…