English
Related papers

Related papers: Valuing insurance against small probability risks:…

200 papers

Surrender poses one of the major risks to life insurance and a sound modeling of its true probability has direct implication on the risk capital demanded by the Solvency II directive. We add to the existing literature by performing…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2021-08-30 Mark Kiermayer

This study examines strategic behavior in crowdfunding using a large-scale online experiment. Building on the model of Arieli et. al 2023, we test predictions about risk aversion (i.e., opting out despite seeing a positive private signal)…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2025-10-17 Din Amir , Bar Hoter , Moran Koren

Meta-analyses in orphan diseases and small populations generally face particular problems including small numbers of studies, small study sizes, and heterogeneity of results. However, the heterogeneity is difficult to estimate if only very…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-09-11 Tim Friede , Christian Röver , Simon Wandel , Beat Neuenschwander

We study large and moderate deviations for a life insurance portfolio, without assuming identically distributed losses. The crucial assumption is that losses are bounded, and that variances are bounded below. From a standard large…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-09-04 Stefan Gerhold

Traditional insurance pricing relies on risk-based principles that ensure actuarial fairness and solvency but do not explicitly account for policyholders' price sensitivity. We formulate insurance pricing as a decision-making problem and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-29 Sascha Günther , Dimitri Semenovich , Mario V. Wüthrich

For credit risk management purposes in general, and for allocation of regulatory capital by banks in particular (Basel II), numerical assessments of the credit-worthiness of borrowers are indispensable. These assessments are expressed in…

Other Condensed Matter · Physics 2008-12-02 Katja Pluto , Dirk Tasche

In this paper, we consider a risk process with deterministic growth and multiplicative jumps to model the capital of a low-income household. Reflecting the high-risk nature of the low-income environment, capital losses are assumed to be…

This paper tackles the problem of mitigating catastrophic risk (which is risk with very low frequency but very high severity) in the context of a sequential decision making process. This problem is particularly challenging due to the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-01 Parisa Davar , Frédéric Godin , Jose Garrido

This paper empirically analyzes how individual characteristics are associated with risk aversion, loss aversion, time discounting, and present bias. To this end, we conduct a large-scale demographically representative survey across eight…

General Economics · Economics 2022-05-12 Thomas Meissner , Xavier Gassmann , Corinne Faure , Joachim Schleich

This paper considers the pricing of equity-linked life insurance contracts with death and survival benefits in a general model with multiple stochastic risk factors: interest rate, equity, volatility, unsystematic and systematic mortality.…

Pricing of Securities · Quantitative Finance 2021-11-03 Karim Barigou , Lukasz Delong

Parametric insurance has emerged as a practical way to cover risks that may be difficult to assess. By introducing a parameter that triggers compensation and allows the insurer to determine a payment without estimating the actual loss,…

Applications · Statistics 2023-01-20 Olivier Lopez , Maud Thomas

Models for epidemic spread typically account for variable risk factors but do not account for the correlation between behavior and risk. Here we extend these models to account for such correlations. We find that a positive correlation…

Physics and Society · Physics 2025-08-14 Yoel Sanders

Insurance data can be asymmetric with heavy tails, causing inadequate adjustments of the usually applied models. To deal with this issue, hierarchical models for collective risk with heavy-tails of the claims distributions that take also…

Applications · Statistics 2021-01-26 Pamela M. Chiroque-Solano , Fernando A. S. Moura

In the literature, insurance and reinsurance pricing is typically determined by a premium principle, characterized by a risk measure that reflects the policy seller's risk attitude. Building on the work of Meyers (1980) and Chen et al.…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2025-07-08 Ziyue Shi , David Landriault , Fangda Liu

This paper investigates optimal investment and insurance strategies under a mean-variance criterion with path-dependent effects. We use a rough volatility model and a Hawkes process with a power kernel to capture the path dependence of the…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2026-05-13 Liyuan Cui , Wenyuan Li

It is illustrated a methodology to compute the pure premium for the automobile insurance (claim frequency and severity) using generalized linear models. It is obtained the pure premium for the partial damage loss cover (PPD) using a set of…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2017-07-13 William Guevara-Alarcón , Luz Mery González , Armando Antonio Zarruk

We discuss the asymptotic behaviour of risk-based indifference prices of European contingent claims in discrete-time financial markets under volatility uncertainty as the number of intermediate trading periods tends to infinity. The…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2024-11-04 Jonas Blessing , Michael Kupper , Alessandro Sgarabottolo

Optimal reinsurance when Value at Risk and expected surplus is balanced through their ratio is studied, and it is demonstrated how results for risk-adjusted surplus can be utilized. Simplifications for large portfolios are derived, and this…

Applications · Statistics 2019-12-10 Erik Bølviken , Yinzhi Wang

In UK data, I document the prevalence of misbeliefs regarding the State Pension eligibility age (SPA) and their predictivity for retirement. Exploiting policy variation, I estimate a lifecycle model of retirement in which, motivated by…

General Economics · Economics 2026-02-19 Jamie Hentall-MacCuish

The probability of necessity (PN), which quantifies the probability that an observed event would not have occurred in the absence of the treatment, is a central estimand in attribution analysis. While PN has been extensively studied for…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-05 Jile Chaoge , Kesen Han , Fahui Liu , Peng Wu