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Gaussian Process state-space models capture complex temporal dependencies in a principled manner by placing a Gaussian Process prior on the transition function. These models have a natural interpretation as discretized stochastic…

The Gaussian process state space model (GPSSM) is a non-linear dynamical system, where unknown transition and/or measurement mappings are described by GPs. Most research in GPSSMs has focussed on the state estimation problem, i.e.,…

This article introduces a nonparametric approach to spectral analysis of a high-dimensional multivariate nonstationary time series. The procedure is based on a novel frequency-domain factor model that provides a flexible yet parsimonious…

The Markov-modulated Poisson process is utilised for count modelling in a variety of areas such as queueing, reliability, network and insurance claims analysis. In this paper, we extend the Markov-modulated Poisson process framework through…

Gaussian process state-space models (GPSSMs) offer a principled framework for learning and inference in nonlinear dynamical systems with uncertainty quantification. However, existing GPSSMs are limited by the use of multiple independent…

This paper introduces a linear state-space model with time-varying dynamics. The time dependency is obtained by forming the state dynamics matrix as a time-varying linear combination of a set of matrices. The time dependency of the weights…

Advances in data collection are producing growing volumes of temporal count observations, making adapted modeling increasingly necessary. In this work, we introduce a generative framework for independent component analysis of temporal count…

Gaussian processes (GPs) are commonplace in spatial statistics. Although many non-stationary models have been developed, there is arguably a lack of flexibility compared to equipping each location with its own parameters. However, the…

The time-evolving precision matrix of a piecewise-constant Gaussian graphical model encodes the dynamic conditional dependency structure of a multivariate time-series. Traditionally, graphical models are estimated under the assumption that…

Many machine learning problems can be framed in the context of estimating functions, and often these are time-dependent functions that are estimated in real-time as observations arrive. Gaussian processes (GPs) are an attractive choice for…

This paper addresses the issue of detecting change-points in multivariate time series. The proposed approach differs from existing counterparts by making only weak assumptions on both the change-points structure across series, and the…

Rich and complex time-series data, such as those generated from engineering systems, financial markets, videos or neural recordings, are now a common feature of modern data analysis. Explaining the phenomena underlying these diverse data…

Learning the dynamics of a physical system wherein an autonomous agent operates is an important task. Often these systems present apparent geometric structures. For instance, the trajectories of a robotic manipulator can be broken down into…

In this paper we consider a Bayesian framework for making inferences about dynamical systems from ergodic observations. The proposed Bayesian procedure is based on the Gibbs posterior, a decision theoretic generalization of standard…

Count data appears in various disciplines. In this work, a new method to analyze time series count data has been proposed. The method assumes exponentially decaying covariance structure, a special class of the Mat\'ern covariance function,…

We reconsider a nonparametric density model based on Gaussian processes. By augmenting the model with latent P\'olya--Gamma random variables and a latent marked Poisson process we obtain a new likelihood which is conjugate to the model's…

Given (small amounts of) time-series' data from a high-dimensional, fine-grained, multiscale dynamical system, we propose a generative framework for learning an effective, lower-dimensional, coarse-grained dynamical model that is predictive…

We discuss Bayesian analysis of multivariate time series with dynamic factor models that exploit time-adaptive sparsity in model parametrizations via the latent threshold approach. One central focus is on the transfer responses of multiple…

The equations of complex dynamical systems may not be identified by expert knowledge, especially if the underlying mechanisms are unknown. Data-driven discovery methods address this challenge by inferring governing equations from…

This paper deals with state estimation of stochastic models with linear state dynamics, continuous or discrete in time. The emphasis is laid on a numerical solution to the state prediction by the time-update step of the grid-point-based…