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We consider a continuous-time financial market with an asset whose price is modeled by a linear stochastic differential equation with drift and volatility switching driven by a uniformly ergodic jump Markov process with a countable state…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-01-14 Vitaliy Golomoziy , Kamil Kladivko , Yuliya Mishura

This paper is devoted to a study of robust fundamental theorems of asset pricing in discrete time and finite horizon settings. Uncertainty is modelled by a (possibly uncountable) family of price processes on the same probability space. Our…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2024-04-04 Huy N. Chau

We unify and establish equivalence between the pathwise and the quasi-sure approaches to robust modelling of financial markets in discrete time. In particular, we prove a Fundamental Theorem of Asset Pricing and a Superhedging Theorem,…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2019-12-04 Jan Obloj , Johannes Wiesel

In this paper we study a class of risk-sensitive Markovian control problems in discrete time subject to model uncertainty. We consider a risk-sensitive discounted cost criterion with finite time horizon. The used methodology is the one of…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-04-15 Tomasz R. Bielecki , Tao Chen , Igor Cialenco

In this article we propose a study of market models starting from a set of axioms, as one does in the case of risk measures. We define a market model simply as a mapping from the set of adapted strategies to the set of random variables…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2015-12-08 Mario Sikic

In the context of Markov decision processes running in continuous time, one of the most intriguing challenges is the efficient approximation of finite horizon reachability objectives. A multitude of sophisticated model checking algorithms…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2015-08-03 Yuliya Butkova , Hassan Hatefi , Holger Hermanns , Jan Krcal

In this paper we derive robust super- and subhedging dualities for contingent claims that can depend on several underlying assets. In addition to strict super- and subhedging, we also consider relaxed versions which, instead of eliminating…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2017-09-14 Patrick Cheridito , Michael Kupper , Ludovic Tangpi

We introduce a general framework for Markov decision problems under model uncertainty in a discrete-time infinite horizon setting. By providing a dynamic programming principle we obtain a local-to-global paradigm, namely solving a local,…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-01-06 Ariel Neufeld , Julian Sester , Mario Šikić

Continuous-time Markov process models of contagions are widely studied, not least because of their utility in predicting the evolution of real-world contagions and in formulating control measures. It is often the case, however, that…

Physics and Society · Physics 2016-11-23 Peter G. Fennell , Sergey Melnik , James P. Gleeson

Diffusion models have achieved huge empirical success in data generation tasks. Recently, some efforts have been made to adapt the framework of diffusion models to discrete state space, providing a more natural approach for modeling…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-02-15 Hongrui Chen , Lexing Ying

This paper aims to provide a simple modelling of speculative bubbles and derive some quantitative properties of its dynamical evolution. Starting from a description of individual speculative behaviours, we build and study a second order…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-09-25 Sébastien Gadat , Laurent Miclo , Fabien Panloup

Financial markets tend to switch between various market regimes over time, making stationarity-based models unsustainable. We construct a regime-switching model independent of asset classes for risk-adjusted return predictions based on…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2021-07-13 Nicklas Werge

The paper studies an improved estimate for the rate of convergence for nonlinear homogeneous discrete-time Markov chains. These processes are nonlinear in terms of the distribution law. Hence, the transition kernels are dependent on the…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-05-21 Aleksandr Shchegolev

A heat kernel approach is proposed for the development of a general, flexible, and mathematically tractable asset pricing framework in finite time. The pricing kernel, giving rise to the price system in an incomplete market, is modelled by…

Pricing of Securities · Quantitative Finance 2013-09-27 Andrea Macrina

We study pricing and hedging under parameter uncertainty for a class of Markov processes which we call generalized affine processes and which includes the Black-Scholes model as well as the constant elasticity of variance (CEV) model as…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2021-11-30 Eva Lütkebohmert , Thorsten Schmidt , Julian Sester

In this paper we present a framework for risk-sensitive model predictive control (MPC) of linear systems affected by stochastic multiplicative uncertainty. Our key innovation is to consider a time-consistent, dynamic risk evaluation of the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2018-04-26 Sumeet Singh , Yin-Lam Chow , Anirudha Majumdar , Marco Pavone

We consider the pricing of derivatives in a setting with trading restrictions, but without any probabilistic assumptions on the underlying model, in discrete and continuous time. In particular, we assume that European put or call options…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2015-06-09 Alexander M. G. Cox , Zhaoxu Hou , Jan Obloj

We develop an approach to time-consistent risk evaluation of continuous-time processes in Markov systems. Our analysis is based on dual representation of coherent risk measures, differentiability concepts for multivalued mappings, and a…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2017-01-31 Darinka Dentcheva , Andrzej Ruszczynski

Regime-switching models, in particular Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) where the switching is driven by an unobservable Markov chain, are widely-used in financial applications, due to their tractability and good econometric properties. In this…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2016-02-18 Vikram Krishnamurthy , Elisabeth Leoff , Jörn Sass

Rough volatility is a well-established statistical stylised fact of financial assets. This property has lead to the design and analysis of various new rough stochastic volatility models. However, most of these developments have been carried…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2019-10-31 Mehdi Tomas , Mathieu Rosenbaum
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