English
Related papers

Related papers: Interpreting Predictive Probabilities: Model Confi…

200 papers

_Uncertainty expressions_ such as "probably" or "highly unlikely" are pervasive in human language. While prior work has established that there is population-level agreement in terms of how humans quantitatively interpret these expressions,…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-11-08 Catarina G Belem , Markelle Kelly , Mark Steyvers , Sameer Singh , Padhraic Smyth

Feature attribution is widely used in interpretable machine learning to explain how influential each measured input feature value is for an output inference. However, measurements can be uncertain, and it is unclear how the awareness of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-01-26 Danding Wang , Wencan Zhang , Brian Y. Lim

Human Label Variation (HLV) refers to legitimate disagreement in annotation that reflects the diversity of human perspectives rather than mere error. Long treated in NLP as noise to be eliminated, HLV has only recently been reframed as a…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-04-23 Shanshan Xu , Santosh T. Y. S. S , Barbara Plank

Humans exhibit disagreement during data labeling. We term this disagreement as human label uncertainty. In this work, we study the ramifications of human label uncertainty (HLU). Our evaluation of existing uncertainty estimation algorithms,…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2022-11-14 Chen Zhou , Mohit Prabhushankar , Ghassan AlRegib

Calibration is a frequently invoked concept when useful label probability estimates are required on top of classification accuracy. A calibrated model is a function whose values correctly reflect underlying label probabilities. Calibration…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-03 Alireza Torabian , Ruth Urner

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used in high-stakes settings, where overconfident responses can mislead users. Reliable confidence estimation has been shown to enhance trust and task accuracy. Yet existing methods face…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-09-30 Linwei Tao , Yi-Fan Yeh , Bo Kai , Minjing Dong , Tao Huang , Tom A. Lamb , Jialin Yu , Philip H. S. Torr , Chang Xu

People's trust in prediction models can be affected by many factors, including domain expertise like knowledge about the application domain and experience with predictive modelling. However, to what extent and why domain expertise impacts…

Human-Computer Interaction · Computer Science 2021-09-20 Jeroen Ooge , Katrien Verbert

As large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used in high-stakes domains, accurately assessing their confidence is crucial. Humans typically express confidence through epistemic markers (e.g., "fairly confident") instead of numerical…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-04-14 Jiayu Liu , Qing Zong , Weiqi Wang , Yangqiu Song

We study estimating inherent human disagreement (annotation label distribution) in natural language inference task. Post-hoc smoothing of the predicted label distribution to match the expected label entropy is very effective. Such simple…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2021-02-16 Shujian Zhang , Chengyue Gong , Eunsol Choi

Issues can arise when research focused on fairness, transparency, or safety is conducted separately from research driven by practical deployment concerns and vice versa. This separation creates a growing need for translational work that…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-29 Jamelle Watson-Daniels , Flavio du Pin Calmon , Alexander D'Amour , Carol Long , David C. Parkes , Berk Ustun

Humans are the final decision makers in critical tasks that involve ethical and legal concerns, ranging from recidivism prediction, to medical diagnosis, to fighting against fake news. Although machine learning models can sometimes achieve…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2019-01-10 Vivian Lai , Chenhao Tan

It's better to say "I can't answer" than to answer incorrectly. This selective prediction ability is crucial for NLP systems to be reliably deployed in real-world applications. Prior work has shown that existing selective prediction…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2022-04-08 Neeraj Varshney , Swaroop Mishra , Chitta Baral

The combination of argumentation and probability paves the way to new accounts of qualitative and quantitative uncertainty, thereby offering new theoretical and applicative opportunities. Due to a variety of interests, probabilistic…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2018-03-12 Regis Riveret , Pietro Baroni , Yang Gao , Guido Governatori , Antonino Rotolo , Giovanni Sartor

Language modeling has shifted in recent years from a distribution over strings to prediction models with textual inputs and outputs for general-purpose tasks. This position paper highlights the often overlooked implications of this shift…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-05-13 Eitan Wagner , Omri Abend

Deep learning (DL) techniques have achieved great success in predictive accuracy in a variety of tasks, but deep neural networks (DNNs) are shown to produce highly overconfident scores for even abnormal samples. Well-defined uncertainty…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-07-26 Yufei Li , Simin Chen , Wei Yang

Prediction, where observed data is used to quantify uncertainty about a future observation, is a fundamental problem in statistics. Prediction sets with coverage probability guarantees are a common solution, but these do not provide…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-11-22 Leonardo Cella , Ryan Martin

Theoretically as well as experimentally it is investigated how people represent their knowledge in order to make decisions or to share their knowledge with others. Experiment 1 probes into the ways how people 6ather information about the…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-04-15 Alf C. Zimmer

Explainable AI has brought transparency into complex ML blackboxes, enabling, in particular, to identify which features these models use for their predictions. So far, the question of explaining predictive uncertainty, i.e. why a model…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-19 Florian Bley , Sebastian Lapuschkin , Wojciech Samek , Grégoire Montavon

Given the complexity of combinations of tasks, languages, and domains in natural language processing (NLP) research, it is computationally prohibitive to exhaustively test newly proposed models on each possible experimental setting. In this…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2020-05-05 Mengzhou Xia , Antonios Anastasopoulos , Ruochen Xu , Yiming Yang , Graham Neubig

Model interpretability methods are often used to explain NLP model decisions on tasks such as text classification, where the output space is relatively small. However, when applied to language generation, where the output space often…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2022-05-24 Kayo Yin , Graham Neubig