Related papers: A simple but effective bushfire model: analysis an…
This paper is concerned with a contemporary Bayesian approach to the effect of temperature on developmental rates. We develop statistical methods using recent computational tools to model four commonly used ecological non-linear…
We study a single column model of moist convection in the atmosphere. We state the conditions for it to represent a stable steady state. We then evolve the column by subjecting it to an upward displacement which can release instability,…
The problem of non-perturbative description of stationary flames with arbitrary gas expansion is considered. On the basis of the Thomson circulation theorem an implicit integral of the flow equations is constructed. With the help of this…
In this work we study the recently developed parametrized partition function formulation and show how we can infer the thermodynamic properties of fermions based on numerical simulation of bosons and distinguishable particles at various…
This paper presents a mathematical approach to model the effects of phenomena with random nature such as turbulence and fire-spotting into the existing wildfire simulators. The formulation proposes that the propagation of the fire-front is…
Prescribed burns are currently the most effective method of reducing the risk of widespread wildfires, but a largely missing component in forest management is knowing which fuels one can safely burn to minimize exposure to toxic smoke. Here…
We perform twenty experiments on an acoustically-forced laminar premixed Bunsen flame and assimilate high-speed footage of the natural emission into a physics-based model containing seven parameters. The experimental rig is a ducted Bunsen…
The notion of temperature in many body elementary particle processes is in a common use for decades. Thermal models have become simple and universal effective tools to describe particle production -- not only in high energy heavy ion…
A new premixed turbulent combustion model is proposed. It is based on one-dimensional (1D) filtering of density times progress variable and of the reaction source term of laminar premixed flame profiles using a filter kernel which reflects…
Humans have been able to tackle biosphere complexities by acting as ecosystem engineers, profoundly changing the flows of matter, energy and information. This includes major innovations that allowed to reduce and control the impact of…
Future climate change impacts depend on temperatures not only through changes in their means but also through changes in their variability. General circulation models (GCMs) predict changes in both means and variability; however, GCM output…
Because most natural phenomena exhibit dependence at multiple scales like locations of earthquakes or forest fire occurrences, spatio-temporal single-scale point process models are unrealistic in many applications. This motivates us to…
Global climate models aim to reproduce physical processes on a global scale and predict quantities such as temperature given some forcing inputs. We consider climate ensembles made of collections of such runs with different initial…
We establish a general framework using a diffusion approximation to simulate forward-in-time state counts or frequencies for cladogenetic state-dependent speciation-extinction (ClaSSE) models. We apply the framework to various two- and…
Forest-savanna bistability - the hypothesis that forests and savannas exist as alternative stable states in the tropics - and its implications are key challenges for mathematical modelers and ecologists in the context of ongoing climate…
The model-based control of building heating systems for energy saving encounters severe physical, mathematical and calibration difficulties in the numerous attempts that has been published until now. This topic is addressed here via a new…
Solid fuel ignition models, for which the dynamics of the temperature is independent of the single-species mass fraction, attempt to follow the dynamics of an explosive event. Such models may take the form of singular, degenerate,…
The influence of the small scale ``cellular'' structure of premixed flames on their evolution at larger scales is investigated. A procedure of the space-time averaging of the flow variables over flame cells is introduced. It is proved that…
The classical 'ballistic' overshoot models show some contradictions and are not consistence with numerical simulations and asteroseismic studies. Asteroseismic studies imply that overshoot is a weak mixing process. Diffusion model is…
Wildfires are uncontrolled fires in the environment that can be caused by humans or nature. In 2020 alone, wildfires in California have burned 4.2 million acres, damaged 10,500 buildings or structures, and killed more than 31 people,…