Related papers: Mutually Exciting Point Processes for Crowdfunding…
Event occurrence is not only subject to the environmental changes, but is also facilitated by the events that have occurred in a system. Here, we develop a method for estimating such extrinsic and intrinsic factors from a single series of…
Mobile health applications, including those that track activities such as exercise, sleep, and diet, are becoming widely used. Accurately predicting human actions is essential for targeted recommendations that could improve our health and…
Polarization issue is generally subject to ideological polarization and affective polarization. In particular, affective polarization usually accelerates the polarization process and transform social interactions into a zero-sum game. Yet,…
Crowd sensing is a new paradigm which leverages the ubiquity of sensor-equipped mobile devices to collect data. To achieve good quality for crowd sensing, incentive mechanisms are indispensable to attract more participants. Most of existing…
We introduce a model-independent approximation for the branching ratio of Hawkes self-exciting point processes. Our estimator requires knowing only the mean and variance of the event count in a sufficiently large time window, statistics…
Using agent-directed simulations, we investigate fluctuations in the collective emotional states on a chat network where agents interchange messages with a fixed number of moderators and emotional Bot. To design a realistic chat system, the…
In this paper we propose an overview of the recent academic literature devoted to the applications of Hawkes processes in finance. Hawkes processes constitute a particular class of multivariate point processes that has become very popular…
Affective sharing within groups strengthens coordination and empathy, leads to better health outcomes, and increases productivity and performance. Existing tools for affective sharing face one main challenge: creating a representation of…
Efforts to model viral cascades provide a vital view into how they form and spread. A range of methods, such as Multivariate Hawkes Processes or network inference algorithms, attempt to decompose cascades into constituent components via…
User-generated content is shaping the dynamics of the World Wide Web. Indeed, an increasingly large number of systems provide mechanisms to support the growing demand for content creation, sharing, and management. Tagging systems are a…
Hawkes Processes are a type of point process for modeling self-excitation, i.e., when the occurrence of an event makes future events more likely to occur. The corresponding self-triggering function of this type of process may be inferred…
Social influence drives both offline and online human behaviour. It pervades cultural markets, and manifests itself in the adoption of scientific and technical innovations as well as the spread of social practices. Prior empirical work on…
In this paper we present a novel crowd simulation method by modeling the generation and contagion of panic emotion under multi-hazard circumstances. Specifically, we first classify hazards into different types (transient and persistent,…
A point process for event arrivals in high frequency trading is presented. The intensity is the product of a Hawkes process and high dimensional functions of covariates derived from the order book. Conditions for stationarity of the process…
Multivariate Hawkes Processes (MHPs) are an important class of temporal point processes that have enabled key advances in understanding and predicting social information systems. However, due to their complex modeling of temporal…
Hawkes process is one of the most commonly used models for investigating the self-exciting nature of earthquake occurrences. However, seismicity patterns have complicated characteristics due to heterogeneous geology and stresses, for which…
We investigate spatio-temporal event analysis using point processes. Inferring the dynamics of event sequences spatiotemporally has many practical applications including crime prediction, social media analysis, and traffic forecasting. In…
On-line communities offer a great opportunity to investigate human dynamics, because much information about individuals is registered in databases. In this paper, based on data statistics of online comments on Blog posts, we first present…
We introduce a new type of point process model to describe the incidence of contagious diseases. The model is a variant of the Hawkes self-exciting process and exhibits similar clustering but without the restriction that the component…
Crowdfunding platforms have become important sites where people can create projects to seek funds toward turning their ideas into products, and back someone else's projects. As news media have reported successfully funded projects (e.g.,…