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Evaluating large language models across many benchmarks is expensive, yet many benchmarks are highly correlated. We formalize the selection of a small, informative subset as submodular maximization under a multivariate Gaussian model.…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-05-05 Alexander Smola

Likelihood functions evaluated using particle filters are typically noisy, computationally expensive, and non-differentiable due to Monte Carlo variability. These characteristics make conventional optimization methods difficult to apply…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-13 Genshiro Kitagawa

Bayesian optimization is a sequential method for minimizing objective functions that are expensive to evaluate and about which few assumptions can be made. By using all gathered data to train a Gaussian process model for the function and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-07 Jesse Schneider , William J. Welch

Bayesian optimal experimental design has immense potential to inform the collection of data so as to subsequently enhance our understanding of a variety of processes. However, a major impediment is the difficulty in evaluating optimal…

Computation · Statistics 2018-03-14 David J. Price , Nigel G. Bean , Joshua V. Ross , Jonathan Tuke

We develop a new computational approach for "focused" optimal Bayesian experimental design with nonlinear models, with the goal of maximizing expected information gain in targeted subsets of model parameters. Our approach considers…

Computation · Statistics 2019-03-28 Chi Feng , Youssef M. Marzouk

The quality of an estimated nonlinear model highly depends on the data quality that was used for the system identification. By using a Gaussian Process-based optimal input design approach, a so-called space-filling dataset can be generated…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-05-13 Máté Kiss , Maarten Schoukens , Roland Tóth

Bayesian experimental design (BED) aims at designing an experiment to maximize the information gathering from the collected data. The optimal design is usually achieved by maximizing the mutual information (MI) between the data and the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-03-17 Jiaxin Zhang , Sirui Bi , Guannan Zhang

Bayesian models often involve a small set of hyperparameters determined by maximizing the marginal likelihood. Bayesian optimization is a popular iterative method where a Gaussian process posterior of the underlying function is sequentially…

Computation · Statistics 2022-08-18 Oskar Gustafsson , Mattias Villani , Pär Stockhammar

Uncertainty in state or model parameters is common in robotics and typically handled by acquiring system measurements that yield information about the uncertain quantities of interest. Inputs to a nonlinear dynamical system yield outcomes…

Robotics · Computer Science 2023-08-04 Parker Ewen , Gitesh Gunjal , Joey Wilson , Jinsun Liu , Challen Enninful Adu , Ram Vasudevan

We address the brittleness of Bayesian experimental design under model misspecification by formulating the problem as a max--min game between the experimenter and an adversarial nature subject to information-theoretic constraints. We…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-13 Hany Abdulsamad , Sahel Iqbal , Christian A. Naesseth , Takuo Matsubara , Adrien Corenflos

Bayesian optimal experimental design (BOED) seeks to maximize the expected information gain (EIG) of experiments. This requires a likelihood estimate, which in many settings is intractable. Simulation-based inference (SBI) provides powerful…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-09 Samuel Klein , Willie Neiswanger , Daniel Ratner , Michael Kagan , Sean Gasiorowski

Experimental design is crucial for inference where limitations in the data collection procedure are present due to cost or other restrictions. Optimal experimental designs determine parameters that in some appropriate sense make the data…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-03-11 Panagiotis Tsilifis , Roger G. Ghanem , Paris Hajali

While many advanced statistical methods for the design of experiments exist, it is still typical for physical experiments to be performed adaptively based on human intuition. As a consequence, experimental resources are wasted on…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-04 Anton van Beek

Simulation-based optimal design techniques are a convenient tool for solving a particular class of optimal design problems. The goal is to find the optimal configuration of factor settings with respect to an expected utility criterion. This…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-05-21 Markus Hainy , Werner G. Müller , Helga Wagner

Existing high-dimensional Bayesian optimization (BO) methods aim to overcome the curse of dimensionality by carefully encoding structural assumptions, from locality to sparsity to smoothness, into the optimization procedure. Surprisingly,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-10 Colin Doumont , Donney Fan , Natalie Maus , Jacob R. Gardner , Henry Moss , Geoff Pleiss

Bayesian optimization (BO) is one of the most effective methods for closed-loop experimental design and black-box optimization. However, a key limitation of BO is that it is an inherently sequential algorithm (one experiment is proposed per…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-11-21 Leonardo D. González , Victor M. Zavala

Bayesian optimal experimental design (BOED) is a methodology to identify experiments that are expected to yield informative data. Recent work in cognitive science considered BOED for computational models of human behavior with tractable and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-11-01 Simon Valentin , Steven Kleinegesse , Neil R. Bramley , Michael U. Gutmann , Christopher G. Lucas

Experimental design is central to science and engineering. A ubiquitous challenge is how to maximize the value of information obtained from expensive or constrained experimental settings. Bayesian optimal experimental design (OED) provides…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-13 Sofia Mäkinen , Andrew B. Duncan , Tapio Helin

We consider optimal experimental design (OED) for Bayesian inverse problems, where the experimental design variables have a certain multiway structure. Given $d$ different experimental variables with $m_i$ choices per design variable $1 \le…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-06-03 Hugo Díaz , Arvind K. Saibaba , Srinivas Eswar , Vishwas Rao , Zichao Wendy Di

The construction of decision-theoretic Bayesian designs for realistically-complex nonlinear models is computationally challenging, as it requires the optimization of analytically intractable expected utility functions over high-dimensional…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-07-01 Antony Overstall , David Woods