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Calibration, the alignment between model confidence and prediction accuracy, is critical for the reliable deployment of large language models (LLMs). Existing works neglect to measure the generalization of their methods to other prompt…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-01-08 Yuxi Xia , Pedro Henrique Luz de Araujo , Klim Zaporojets , Benjamin Roth

As artificial intelligence (AI) systems, particularly large language models (LLMs), become increasingly integrated into decision-making processes, the ability to trust their outputs is crucial. To earn human trust, LLMs must be well…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-14 Mark Steyvers , Heliodoro Tejeda , Aakriti Kumar , Catarina Belem , Sheer Karny , Xinyue Hu , Lukas Mayer , Padhraic Smyth

Large language models (LLMs) are prone to hallucinations and sensitive to prompt perturbations, often resulting in inconsistent or unreliable generated text. Different methods have been proposed to mitigate such hallucinations and…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-11-25 Xiaoyuan Wu , Weiran Lin , Omer Akgul , Lujo Bauer

Large language models (LLMs) have shown tremendous success in following user instructions and generating helpful responses. Nevertheless, their robustness is still far from optimal, as they may generate significantly inconsistent responses…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-03-25 Yukun Zhao , Lingyong Yan , Weiwei Sun , Guoliang Xing , Shuaiqiang Wang , Chong Meng , Zhicong Cheng , Zhaochun Ren , Dawei Yin

In the deployment of large language models (LLMs), accurate confidence estimation is critical for assessing the credibility of model predictions. However, existing methods often fail to overcome the issue of overconfidence on incorrect…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-02-20 Pei Wang , Yejie Wang , Muxi Diao , Keqing He , Guanting Dong , Weiran Xu

While large language models (LLMs) improve performance by explicit reasoning, their responses are often overconfident, even though they include linguistic expressions demonstrating uncertainty. In this work, we identify what linguistic…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-04-08 Shintaro Ozaki , Wataru Hashimoto , Hidetaka Kamigaito , Katsuhiko Hayashi , Taro Watanabe

Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown remarkable progress, but their real-world application necessitates reliable calibration. This study conducts a comprehensive analysis of calibration degradation of LLMs across four dimensions: models,…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-02-11 Hongseok Oh , Wonseok Hwang

Calibration, which establishes the correlation between accuracy and model confidence, is important for LLM development. We design three off-the-shelf calibration methods based on self-consistency (Wang et al., 2022) for math reasoning…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-03-18 Ante Wang , Linfeng Song , Ye Tian , Baolin Peng , Lifeng Jin , Haitao Mi , Jinsong Su , Dong Yu

As Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed in decision-critical domains, it becomes essential to ensure that their confidence estimates faithfully correspond to their actual correctness. Existing calibration methods have…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-08-21 Ke Fang , Tianyi Zhao , Lu Cheng

Large Language Models (LLMs) increasingly rely on long-form, multi-step reasoning to solve complex tasks such as mathematical problem solving and scientific question answering. Despite strong performance, existing confidence estimation…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-01-21 Zhenjiang Mao , Anirudhh Venkat , Artem Bisliouk , Akshat Kothiyal , Sindhura Kumbakonam Subramanian , Saithej Singhu , Ivan Ruchkin

This paper proposes the use of "multicalibration" to yield interpretable and reliable confidence scores for outputs generated by large language models (LLMs). Multicalibration asks for calibration not just marginally, but simultaneously…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-04-09 Gianluca Detommaso , Martin Bertran , Riccardo Fogliato , Aaron Roth

While Large language models (LLMs) have proved able to address some complex reasoning tasks, we also know that they are highly sensitive to input variation, which can lead to different solution paths and final answers. Answer consistency…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-03-05 Huiyuan Lai , Xiao Zhang , Malvina Nissim

Large language models (LLMs) that do not give consistent answers across contexts are problematic when used for tasks with expectations of consistency, e.g., question-answering, explanations, etc. Our work presents an evaluation benchmark…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2023-10-23 Henning Bartsch , Ole Jorgensen , Domenic Rosati , Jason Hoelscher-Obermaier , Jacob Pfau

Large Language Models (LLMs) have been widely employed in programming language analysis to enhance human productivity. Yet, their reliability can be compromised by various code distribution shifts, leading to inconsistent outputs. While…

Software Engineering · Computer Science 2024-02-12 Yufei Li , Simin Chen , Yanghong Guo , Wei Yang , Yue Dong , Cong Liu

Language Models (LMs) have shown promising performance in natural language generation. However, as LMs often generate incorrect or hallucinated responses, it is crucial to correctly quantify their uncertainty in responding to given inputs.…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-09-17 Xinmeng Huang , Shuo Li , Mengxin Yu , Matteo Sesia , Hamed Hassani , Insup Lee , Osbert Bastani , Edgar Dobriban

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly employed in information-seeking and decision-making tasks. Despite their broad utility, LLMs tend to generate information that conflicts with real-world facts, and their persuasive style can…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-09-19 Arslan Chaudhry , Sridhar Thiagarajan , Dilan Gorur

The advent of pre-trained language models (PLMs) has enabled significant performance gains in the field of natural language processing. However, recent studies have found PLMs to suffer from miscalibration, indicating a lack of accuracy in…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-12-23 Geetanjali Bihani , Julia Rayz

When using large language models (LLMs) in high-stakes applications, we need to know when we can trust their predictions. Some works argue that prompting high-performance LLMs is sufficient to produce calibrated uncertainties, while others…

Large language models (LLMs) produce outputs with varying levels of uncertainty, and, just as often, varying levels of correctness; making their practical reliability far from guaranteed. To quantify this uncertainty, we systematically…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-10-24 Christian Hobelsberger , Theresa Winner , Andreas Nawroth , Oliver Mitevski , Anna-Carolina Haensch

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used in applications requiring factual accuracy, yet their outputs often contain hallucinated responses. While fact-checking can mitigate these errors, existing methods typically retrieve…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-01-07 Haoran Wang , Maryam Khalid , Qiong Wu , Jian Gao , Cheng Cao