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Approaches to the calculation of the full state vector of a larger epidemiological model for the spread of COVID-19 in Sweden at the initial time instant from available data and with a simplified dynamical model are proposed and evaluated.…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2020-07-20 Håkan Runvik , Alexander Medvedev , Robin Eriksson , Stefan Engblom

We propose a copula-based extension of the hidden Markov model (HMM) which applies when the observations recorded at each time in the sample are multivariate. The joint model produced by the copula extension allows decoding of the hidden…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-05-13 Robert Zimmerman , Radu V. Craiu , Vianey Leos-Barajas

Many biological and medical questions can be modeled using time-to-event data in finite-state Markov chains, with the phase-type distribution describing intervals between events. We solve the inverse problem: given a phase-type…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2024-11-19 Ovidiu Radulescu , Dima Grigoriev , Matthias Seiss , Maria Douaihy , Mounia Lagha , Edouard Bertrand

We study discrete-time, discrete-state multistate Markov models from the perspective of algebraic statistics. These models are widely studied in event history analysis, and are characterized by the state space, the initial distribution and…

It is often of interest to study the association between covariates and the cumulative incidence of a right-censored time-to-event outcome. When time-varying covariates are measured on a fixed discrete time scale, it is desirable to account…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-28 Hongxiang Qiu , Marco Carone , Alex Luedtke , Peter B. Gilbert

Combining patient-level data from clinical trials can connect rare phenomena with clinical endpoints, but statistical techniques applied to a single trial may become problematical when trials are pooled. Estimating the hazard of a binary…

State-switching models such as hidden Markov models or Markov-switching regression models are routinely applied to analyse sequences of observations that are driven by underlying non-observable states. Coupled state-switching models extend…

Asymptotic properties of Markov Processes, such as steady state probabilities or hazard rate for absorbing states can be efficiently calculated by means of linear algebra even for large-scale problems. This paper discusses the methods for…

Performance · Computer Science 2017-05-17 Vitali Volovoi

We present a non-parametric prognostic framework for individualized event prediction based on joint modeling of both longitudinal and time-to-event data. Our approach exploits a multivariate Gaussian convolution process (MGCP) to model the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-07-04 Xubo Yue , Raed Kontar

Predicting an individual's risk of experiencing a future clinical outcome is a statistical task with important consequences for both practicing clinicians and public health experts. Modern observational databases such as electronic health…

Epidemiologic studies often evaluate the association between an exposure and an event risk. When time-varying, exposure updates usually occur at discrete visits although changes are in continuous time and survival models require values to…

The identification of factors associated with mental and behavioral disorders in early childhood is critical both for psychopathology research and the support of primary health care practices. Motivated by the Millennium Cohort Study, in…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-09-15 Luca Merlo , Lea Petrella , Nikos Tzavidis

IMPORTANCE: Feature selection with respect to time-to-event outcomes is one of the fundamental problems in clinical trials and biomarker discovery studies. But it's unclear which statistical methods should be used when sample size is small…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-10-17 Rong Lu

Multivariate $\operatorname {COGARCH}(1,1)$ processes are introduced as a continuous-time models for multidimensional heteroskedastic observations. Our model is driven by a single multivariate L\'{e}vy process and the latent time-varying…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2010-02-24 Robert Stelzer

In this paper we propose a multi-state model for the evaluation of the conversion option contract. The multi-state model is based on age-indexed semi-Markov chains that are able to reproduce many important aspects that influence the…

Pricing of Securities · Quantitative Finance 2017-07-05 Guglielmo D'Amico , Montserrat Guillen , Raimondo Manca , Filippo Petroni

A multiple objective space-time forecasting approach is presented involving cyclical curve log-regression, and multivariate time series spatial residual correlation analysis. Specifically, the mean quadratic loss function is minimized in…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-03-30 A. Torres-Signes , M. P. Frías , M. D. Ruiz-Medina

In observational studies, treatment may be adapted to covariates at several times without a fixed protocol, in continuous time. Treatment influences covariates, which influence treatment, which influences covariates, and so on. Then even…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-09-02 Judith J. Lok

In this research, two-state Markov switching models are proposed to study accident frequencies and severities. These models assume that there are two unobserved states of roadway safety, and that roadway entities (e.g., roadway segments)…

Applications · Statistics 2008-12-09 Nataliya V. Malyshkina

Mathematical models are widely recognized as an important tool for analyzing and understanding the dynamics of infectious disease outbreaks, predict their future trends, and evaluate public health intervention measures for disease control…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2021-06-16 Yukun Tan , Durward Cator , Martial Ndeffo-Mbah , Ulisses Braga-Neto

In medicine, comorbidities refer to the presence of multiple, co-occurring diseases. Due to their co-occurring nature, the course of one comorbidity is often highly dependent on the course of the other disease and, hence, treatments can…

Applications · Statistics 2021-03-16 Basil Maag , Stefan Feuerriegel , Mathias Kraus , Maytal Saar-Tsechansky , Thomas Züger