Related papers: Semi-Markov multistate modeling approaches for mul…
The dynamics of many epidemic compartmental models for infectious diseases that spread in a single host population present a second-order phase transition. This transition occurs as a function of the infectivity parameter, from the absence…
We propose a Markovian stochastic approach to model the spread of a SARS-CoV-2-like infection within a closed group of humans. The model takes the form of a Partially Observable Markov Decision Process (POMDP), whose states are given by the…
Covariate adjustment and methods of incorporating historical data in randomized clinical trials (RCTs) each provide opportunities to increase trial power. We unite these approaches for the analysis of RCTs with binary outcomes based on the…
This paper deals with control of partially observable discrete-time stochastic systems. It introduces and studies Markov Decision Processes with Incomplete Information and with semi-uniform Feller transition probabilities. The important…
Epidemics are inherently stochastic, and stochastic models provide an appropriate way to describe and analyse such phenomena. Given temporal incidence data consisting of, for example, the number of new infections or removals in a given time…
Critically ill patients in regular wards are vulnerable to unanticipated adverse events which require prompt transfer to the intensive care unit (ICU). To allow for accurate prognosis of deteriorating patients, we develop a novel…
We propose an extension of Markov-switching generalized additive models for location, scale, and shape (MS-GAMLSS) that allows covariates to influence not only the parameters of the state-dependent distributions but also the state…
Multi-type Markov point processes offer a flexible framework for modelling complex multi-type point patterns where it is pertinent to capture both interactions between points as well as large scale trends depending on observed covariates.…
In this paper, the recurrent events that can occur more than one over the follow-up time have been modeled by phase-type distributions. We use the finite-state continuous-time Markov process with multi states for patients with recurrent…
In this paper, we consider statistical estimation of time-inhomogeneous aggregate Markov models. Unaggregated models, which corresponds to Markov chains, are commonly used in multi-state life insurance to model the biometric states of an…
Frequently, clinical trials and observational studies involve complex event history data with multiple events. When the observations are independent, the analysis of such studies can be based on standard methods for multi-state models.…
Survival analysis aims to explore the relationship between covariates and the time until the occurrence of an event. The Cox proportional hazards model is commonly used for right-censored data, but it is not strictly limited to this type of…
Markov switching models are often used to analyze financial returns because of their ability to capture frequently observed stylized facts. In this paper we consider a multivariate Student-t version of the model as a viable alternative to…
Consider a subject or unit in a longitudinal biomedical, public health, engineering, economic, or social science study which is being monitored over a possibly random duration. Over time this unit experiences competing recurrent events and…
We provide probabilistic and computational results on Markovian multivariate Hawkes processes and induced population processes. By applying the Markov property, we characterize in closed form a joint transform, bijective to the probability…
We consider multi-state capture-recapture-recovery data where observed individuals are recorded in a set of possible discrete states. Traditionally, the Arnason-Schwarz model has been fitted to such data where the state process is modeled…
Healthcare datasets obtained from Electronic Health Records have proven to be extremely useful to assess associations between patients' predictors and outcomes of interest. However, these datasets often suffer from missing values in a high…
Time-to-event semi-competing risk endpoints may be correlated when both events are occurring on the same individual. These events and the association between them may also be influenced by individual characteristics. In this paper, we…
Experiments, in particular on biological systems, typically probe lower-dimensional observables which are projections of high-dimensional dynamics. In order to infer consistent models capturing the relevant dynamics of the system, it is…
In an introductory tutorial, we illustrated building cohort state-transition models (cSTMs) in R, where the state transitions probabilities were constant over time. However, in practice, many cSTMs require transitions, rewards, or both to…