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We investigate the calibration of large language models' (LLMs') confidence across diverse tasks. The results of our preregistered study show that the current crop of LLMs are, like people, too sure they are right: confidence exceeds…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-05-26 Noam Michael , Daniel BenShushan , Jacob Bien , Don A. Moore

Self-Consistency, a widely-used decoding strategy, significantly boosts the reasoning capabilities of Large Language Models (LLMs). However, it depends on the plurality voting rule, which focuses on the most frequent answer while…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-09-18 Siyuan Huang , Zhiyuan Ma , Jintao Du , Changhua Meng , Weiqiang Wang , Zhouhan Lin

Confidence estimation is crucial for reflecting the reliability of large language models (LLMs), particularly in the widely used closed-source models. Utilizing data augmentation for confidence estimation is viable, but discussions focus on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-16 Rui Wang , Renyu Zhu , Minmin Lin , Runze Wu , Tangjie Lv , Changjie Fan , Haobo Wang

Large language models (LLMs) are revolutionizing every aspect of society. They are increasingly used in problem-solving tasks to substitute human assessment and reasoning. LLMs are trained on what humans write and are thus exposed to human…

Software Engineering · Computer Science 2025-10-14 Fengfei Sun , Ningke Li , Kailong Wang , Lorenz Goette

Chain-of-thought (CoT) has emerged as a critical mechanism for enhancing reasoning capabilities in large language models (LLMs), with self-consistency demonstrating notable promise in boosting performance. However, inherent linguistic…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-04-03 Zhiwei Yu , Tuo Li , Changhong Wang , Hui Chen , Lang Zhou

There is a growing literature on reasoning by large language models (LLMs), but the discussion on the uncertainty in their responses is still lacking. Our aim is to assess the extent of confidence that LLMs have in their answers and how it…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-12-23 Yudi Pawitan , Chris Holmes

As large language models (LLMs) are deployed globally, it is crucial that their responses are calibrated across languages to accurately convey uncertainty and limitations. Prior work shows that LLMs are linguistically overconfident in…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-08-11 Neil Rathi , Dan Jurafsky , Kaitlyn Zhou

While Large language models (LLMs) have proved able to address some complex reasoning tasks, we also know that they are highly sensitive to input variation, which can lead to different solution paths and final answers. Answer consistency…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-03-05 Huiyuan Lai , Xiao Zhang , Malvina Nissim

Large language models (LLMs) provide detailed and impressive responses to queries in English. However, are they really consistent at responding to the same query in other languages? The popular way of evaluating for multilingual performance…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-05-29 Ashim Gupta , Maitrey Mehta , Zhichao Xu , Vivek Srikumar

Current large language models (LLMs) generally show a significant performance gap in alignment between English and other languages. To bridge this gap, existing research typically leverages the model's responses in English as a reference to…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-09-16 Xue Zhang , Yunlong Liang , Fandong Meng , Songming Zhang , Yufeng Chen , Jinan Xu , Jie Zhou

As large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used in high-stakes domains, accurately assessing their confidence is crucial. Humans typically express confidence through epistemic markers (e.g., "fairly confident") instead of numerical…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-04-14 Jiayu Liu , Qing Zong , Weiqi Wang , Yangqiu Song

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used in decision-making contexts, but when they present answers without signaling low confidence, users may unknowingly act on erroneous outputs. Prior work shows that LLMs maintain internal…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-10-23 Mark Steyvers , Catarina Belem , Padhraic Smyth

As large language models attract increasing attention and find widespread application, concurrent challenges of reliability also arise at the same time. Confidence calibration, an effective analysis method for gauging the reliability of…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2023-11-23 Chiwei Zhu , Benfeng Xu , Quan Wang , Yongdong Zhang , Zhendong Mao

Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly used in settings where reliable self-assessment is critical. Assessing model reliability has evolved from using probabilistic correctness estimates to, more recently, eliciting verbalized…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-05-11 Sree Bhattacharyya , Samarth Khanna , Leona Chen , Lucas Craig , Tharun Dilliraj , James Z. Wang

Multilingual large language models (LLMs) are advancing rapidly, with new models frequently claiming support for an increasing number of languages. However, existing evaluation datasets are limited and lack cross-lingual alignment, leaving…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-06-25 Wenhan Han , Yifan Zhang , Zhixun Chen , Binbin Liu , Haobin Lin , Bingni Zhang , Taifeng Wang , Mykola Pechenizkiy , Meng Fang , Yin Zheng

Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable capabilities across various tasks. However, these models could offer biased, hallucinated, or non-factual responses camouflaged by their fluency and realistic appearance. Uncertainty…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-05-30 Zhiqiu Xia , Jinxuan Xu , Yuqian Zhang , Hang Liu

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed in settings where the available context is incomplete or degraded. We argue that an LLM generating answers under incomplete context can be viewed as an implicit imputer, and evaluated…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-14 Stef van Buuren

Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable self-improvement capabilities, whereby models iteratively revise their outputs through self-generated feedback. While this reflective mechanism has shown promise in enhancing task…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-04-07 Liangjie Huang , Dawei Li , Huan Liu , Lu Cheng

In recent years, large-scale language models (LLMs) have gained attention for their impressive text generation capabilities. However, these models often face the challenge of "hallucination," which undermines their reliability. In this…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2023-10-10 Yuchen Yang , Houqiang Li , Yanfeng Wang , Yu Wang

Self-detection for Large Language Models (LLMs) seeks to evaluate the trustworthiness of the LLM's output by leveraging its own capabilities, thereby alleviating the issue of output hallucination. However, existing self-detection approaches…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-09-30 Moxin Li , Wenjie Wang , Fuli Feng , Fengbin Zhu , Qifan Wang , Tat-Seng Chua