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Machine learning methods for computational imaging require uncertainty estimation to be reliable in real settings. While Bayesian models offer a computationally tractable way of recovering uncertainty, they need large data volumes to be…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-08-24 Francesco Tonolini , Jack Radford , Alex Turpin , Daniele Faccio , Roderick Murray-Smith

This work considers Bayesian inference under misspecification for complex statistical models comprised of simpler submodels, referred to as modules, that are coupled together. Such ``multi-modular" models often arise when combining…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-08-02 David T. Frazier , David J. Nott

We develop a fast and scalable computational framework to solve large-scale and high-dimensional Bayesian optimal experimental design problems. In particular, we consider the problem of optimal observation sensor placement for Bayesian…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2020-11-09 Keyi Wu , Peng Chen , Omar Ghattas

Inspired by multi-fidelity methods in computer simulations, this article introduces procedures to design surrogates for the input/output relationship of a high-fidelity code. These surrogates should be learned from runs of both the…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2024-06-21 Simon Foucart , Nicolas Hengartner

We provide a new algorithmic framework for differentially private estimation of general functions that adapts to the hardness of the underlying dataset. We build upon previous work that gives a paradigm for selecting an output through the…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2023-11-28 David Durfee

Heteroscedastic regression models a Gaussian variable's mean and variance as a function of covariates. Parametric methods that employ neural networks for these parameter maps can capture complex relationships in the data. Yet, optimizing…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-12-20 Andrew Stirn , Hans-Hermann Wessels , Megan Schertzer , Laura Pereira , Neville E. Sanjana , David A. Knowles

We present extensive empirical evidence showing that current Bayesian simulation-based inference algorithms can produce computationally unfaithful posterior approximations. Our results show that all benchmarked algorithms -- (Sequential)…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-12-06 Joeri Hermans , Arnaud Delaunoy , François Rozet , Antoine Wehenkel , Volodimir Begy , Gilles Louppe

Bayesian coresets have emerged as a promising approach for implementing scalable Bayesian inference. The Bayesian coreset problem involves selecting a (weighted) subset of the data samples, such that the posterior inference using the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-03-01 Jacky Y. Zhang , Rajiv Khanna , Anastasios Kyrillidis , Oluwasanmi Koyejo

A common method for assessing validity of Bayesian sampling or approximate inference methods makes use of simulated data replicates for parameters drawn from the prior. Under continuity assumptions, quantiles of functions of the simulated…

Computation · Statistics 2019-11-21 Xuejun Yu , David J. Nott , Minh-Ngoc Tran , Nadja Klein

Recent advances in modeling large-scale complex physical systems have shifted research focuses towards data-driven techniques. However, generating datasets by simulating complex systems can require significant computational resources.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-08-22 Subhayan De , Matthew Reynolds , Malik Hassanaly , Ryan N. King , Alireza Doostan

When hyperparameter optimization of a machine learning algorithm is repeated for multiple datasets it is possible to transfer knowledge to an optimization run on a new dataset. We develop a new hyperparameter-free ensemble model for…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-10-25 Matthias Feurer , Benjamin Letham , Frank Hutter , Eytan Bakshy

Decisions based partly or solely on predictions from probabilistic models may be sensitive to model misspecification. Statisticians are taught from an early stage that "all models are wrong", but little formal guidance exists on how to…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-03-09 James Watson , Chris Holmes

In Bayesian inverse problems sampling the posterior distribution is often a challenging task when the underlying models are computationally intensive. To this end, surrogates or reduced models are often used to accelerate the computation.…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2019-09-04 Qifeng Liao , Jinglai Li

Multi-fidelity methods leverage low-cost surrogate models to speed up computations and make occasional recourse to expensive high-fidelity models to establish accuracy guarantees. Because surrogate and high-fidelity models are used…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2021-09-14 Terrence Alsup , Benjamin Peherstorfer

In this paper, we are concerned with attributing meaning to the results of a Bayesian analysis for a problem which is sufficiently complex that we are unable to assert a precise correspondence between the expert probabilistic judgements of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-12-04 Daniel Williamson , Michael Goldstein

Bayesian optimization is a coherent, ubiquitous approach to decision-making under uncertainty, with applications including multi-arm bandits, active learning, and black-box optimization. Bayesian optimization selects decisions (i.e.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-12-13 Samuel Stanton , Wesley Maddox , Andrew Gordon Wilson

Variational representations of divergences and distances between high-dimensional probability distributions offer significant theoretical insights and practical advantages in numerous research areas. Recently, they have gained popularity in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-03-25 Jeremiah Birrell , Markos A. Katsoulakis , Yannis Pantazis

We present a continuation method that entails generating a sequence of transition probability density functions from the prior to the posterior in the context of Bayesian inference for parameter estimation problems. The characterization of…

Computation · Statistics 2019-11-27 Ben Mansour Dia

Achieving robust uncertainty quantification for deep neural networks represents an important requirement in many real-world applications of deep learning such as medical imaging where it is necessary to assess the reliability of a neural…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-15 Tim Rensmeyer , Oliver Niggemann

How can we efficiently gather information to optimize an unknown function, when presented with multiple, mutually dependent information sources with different costs? For example, when optimizing a robotic system, intelligently trading off…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-11-05 Jialin Song , Yuxin Chen , Yisong Yue