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Traffic safety is important in reducing death and building a harmonious society. In addition to studies of accident incidences, the perception of driving risk is significant in guiding the implementation of appropriate driving…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2022-11-08 Renfei Wu , Linheng Li , Haotian Shi , Yikang Rui , Dong Ngoduy , Bin Ran

Surrogate models are statistical or conceptual approximations for more complex simulation models. In this context, it is crucial to propagate the uncertainty induced by limited simulation budget and surrogate approximation error to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-01-27 Philipp Reiser , Javier Enrique Aguilar , Anneli Guthke , Paul-Christian Bürkner

Using a probabilistic neural network and Lagrangian observations from the Global Drifter Program, we model the single particle transition probability density function (pdf) of ocean surface drifters. The transition pdf is represented by a…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2023-07-12 Martin T. Brolly

Robotic systems often operate with uncertainties in their dynamics, for example, unknown inertial properties. Broadly, there are two approaches for controlling uncertain systems: design robust controllers in spite of uncertainty, or…

Robotics · Computer Science 2019-06-10 Keenan Albee , Monica Ekal , Rodrigo Ventura , Richard Linares

This paper proposes stochastic models for the analysis of ocean surface trajectories obtained from freely-drifting satellite-tracked instruments. The proposed time series models are used to summarise large multivariate datasets and infer…

Applications · Statistics 2017-03-16 Adam M. Sykulski , Sofia C. Olhede , Jonathan M. Lilly , Eric Danioux

Learning a causal directed acyclic graph from data is a challenging task that involves solving a combinatorial problem for which the solution is not always identifiable. A new line of work reformulates this problem as a continuous…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-11-05 Philippe Brouillard , Sébastien Lachapelle , Alexandre Lacoste , Simon Lacoste-Julien , Alexandre Drouin

Predicting model performance at larger scales enables the design of training strategies and architectures tailored to specific performance targets. Empirical scaling law research identifies functional forms to aid this prediction task.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-26 Viktoria Schram , Markus Hiller , Daniel Beck , Trevor Cohn

Using deep neural networks to predict the solutions of AC optimal power flow (ACOPF) problems has been an active direction of research. However, because the ACOPF is nonconvex, it is difficult to construct a good data set that contains…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2021-10-06 Ling Zhang , Baosen Zhang

We present in this article a novel Lagrangian measurement technique: an instrumented particle which continuously transmits the force/acceleration acting on it as it is advected in a flow. We develop signal processing methods to extract…

This paper addresses an autonomous exploration problem in which a mobile sensor, placed in a previously unseen search area, utilizes an information-theoretic navigation cost function to dynamically select the next sensing action, i.e.,…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2020-07-13 Christopher Robbiano , Edwin K. P. Chong , Mahmood R. Azimi-Sadjadi

We introduce the concept of decision-focused surrogate modeling for solving computationally challenging nonlinear optimization problems in real-time settings. The proposed data-driven framework seeks to learn a simpler, e.g. convex,…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-12-27 Rishabh Gupta , Qi Zhang

We establish a formal connection between the decades-old surrogate outcome model in biostatistics and economics and the emerging field of prediction-powered inference (PPI). The connection treats predictions from pre-trained models,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-01-17 Wenlong Ji , Lihua Lei , Tijana Zrnic

Offline design optimization problem arises in numerous science and engineering applications including material and chemical design, where expensive online experimentation necessitates the use of in silico surrogate functions to predict and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-05 Minh Hoang , Azza Fadhel , Aryan Deshwal , Janardhan Rao Doppa , Trong Nghia Hoang

In safety-critical domains such as autonomous driving and medical diagnosis, the reliability of machine learning models is crucial. One significant challenge to reliability is concept drift, which can cause model deterioration over time.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-23 Anton Winter , Nicolas Jourdan , Tristan Wirth , Volker Knauthe , Arjan Kuijper

Machine learning classification techniques have been used widely to recognize the feasible design domain and discover hidden patterns in engineering design. An accurate classification model needs a large dataset; however, generating a large…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2021-07-13 Xianping Du , Kai Zhang , Onur Bilgen , Laurent Burlion , Hongyi Xu

The increasing sophistication of wind turbine design and control generates a need for high-quality data. Therefore, the relatively limited set of measured wind data may be extended with computer-generated surrogate data, e.g. to make…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2021-03-02 D. D'Ambrosio , J. Schoukens , T. De Troyer , M. Zivanovic , M. C. Runacres

Surrogate models are extensively employed for forward and inverse uncertainty quantification in complex, computation-intensive engineering problems. Nonetheless, constructing high-accuracy surrogate models for complex dynamical systems with…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2025-03-20 Zhouzhou Song , Weiyun Xu , Marcos A. Valdebenito , Matthias G. R. Faes

Computational models are utilized in many scientific domains to simulate complex systems. Sensitivity analysis is an important practice to aid our understanding of the mechanics of these models and the processes they describe, but…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-08-12 Massimo Aufiero , Lucas Janson

Exploration is a fundamental problem in robotics. While sampling-based planners have shown high performance, they are oftentimes compute intensive and can exhibit high variance. To this end, we propose to directly learn the underlying…

Robotics · Computer Science 2022-07-15 Lukas Schmid , Chao Ni , Yuliang Zhong , Roland Siegwart , Olov Andersson

The problem of tracking the source of a passive scalar in a turbulent flow is relevant to flying insect behavior and several other applications. Extensive previous work has shown that certain Bayesian strategies, such as "infotaxis," can be…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2025-03-07 Robin A. Heinonen , Luca Biferale , Antonio Celani , Massimo Vergassola
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