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Related papers: Identifying Intended Effects with Causal Models

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Causal Models are increasingly suggested as a means to reason about the behavior of cyber-physical systems in socio-technical contexts. They allow us to analyze courses of events and reason about possible alternatives. Until now, however,…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2019-11-13 Severin Kacianka , Amjad Ibrahim , Alexander Pretschner , Alexander Trende , Andreas Lüdtke

Understanding the predictions made by deep learning models remains a central challenge, especially in high-stakes applications. A promising approach is to equip models with the ability to answer counterfactual questions -- hypothetical…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-28 Inwoo Hwang , Yushu Pan , Elias Bareinboim

Causal inference analysis is the estimation of the effects of actions on outcomes. In the context of healthcare data this means estimating the outcome of counter-factual treatments (i.e. including treatments that were not observed) on a…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-03-21 Yishai Shimoni , Chen Yanover , Ehud Karavani , Yaara Goldschmnidt

Machine learning has shown much promise in helping improve the quality of medical, legal, and financial decision-making. In these applications, machine learning models must satisfy two important criteria: (i) they must be causal, since the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-10-12 Carolyn Kim , Osbert Bastani

This paper is concerned with graphical criteria that can be used to solve the problem of identifying casual effects from nonexperimental data in a causal Bayesian network structure, i.e., a directed acyclic graph that represents causal…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2012-07-02 Yimin Huang , Marco Valtorta

Causal inference and the estimation of causal effects plays a central role in decision-making across many areas, including healthcare and economics. Estimating causal effects typically requires an estimator that is tailored to each problem…

A crucial input into causal inference is the imputed counterfactual outcome. Imputation error can arise because of sampling uncertainty from estimating the prediction model using the untreated observations, or from out-of-sample information…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-05-20 Silvia Goncalves , Serena Ng

Bipartite experiments arise in various fields, in which the treatments are randomized over one set of units, while the outcomes are measured over another separate set of units. However, existing methods often rely on strong model…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-16 Sizhu Lu , Lei Shi , Yue Fang , Wenxin Zhang , Peng Ding

Many research questions concern treatment effects on outcomes that can recur several times in the same individual. For example, medical researchers are interested in treatment effects on hospitalizations in heart failure patients and sports…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-12-31 Matias Janvin , Jessica G. Young , Pål C. Ryalen , Mats J. Stensrud

This paper serves as a literature review of methodology concerning the (modern) causal inference methods to address the causal estimand with observational/survey data that have been or will be used in social science research. Mainly, this…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-08-02 Guanghui Pan

Interference arises when an individual's potential outcome depends on the individual treatment level, but also on the treatment level of others. A common assumption in the causal inference literature in the presence of interference is…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-05-15 Georgia Papadogeorgou , Fabrizia Mealli , Corwin M. Zigler

Understanding the effects of interventions is central to scientific progress, with randomized controlled trials (RCTs) regarded as the gold standard for causal inference in many applied fields. However, RCTs are costly, time-consuming, and…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-27 Drago Plecko , Patrik Okanovic , Torsten Hoefler , Elias Bareinboim

Shapley values underlie one of the most popular model-agnostic methods within explainable artificial intelligence. These values are designed to attribute the difference between a model's prediction and an average baseline to the different…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2020-11-04 Tom Heskes , Evi Sijben , Ioan Gabriel Bucur , Tom Claassen

Pearl's do calculus is a complete axiomatic approach to learn the identifiable causal effects from observational data. When such an effect is not identifiable, it is necessary to perform a collection of often costly interventions in the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-08-21 Sina Akbari , Jalal Etesami , Negar Kiyavash

Judea Pearl's insight that, when errors are assumed independent, the Pure (aka Natural) Direct Effect (PDE) is non-parametrically identified via the Mediation Formula was `path-breaking' in more than one sense! In the same paper Pearl…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-08-31 James M. Robins , Thomas S. Richardson , Ilya Shpitser

Improving public policy is one of the key roles of governments, and they can do this in an evidence-based way using administrative data. Causal inference for observational data improves on current practice of using descriptive or predictive…

Applications · Statistics 2023-01-18 Elena Tartaglia , Peter Rankin

As systems are getting more autonomous with the development of artificial intelligence, it is important to discover the causal knowledge from observational sensory inputs. By encoding a series of cause-effect relations between events,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-01-16 Yuhao Wang , Vlado Menkovski , Hao Wang , Xin Du , Mykola Pechenizkiy

Long-term causal inference is an important but challenging problem across various scientific domains. To solve the latent confounding problem in long-term observational studies, existing methods leverage short-term experimental data.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-23 Weilin Chen , Ruichu Cai , Yuguang Yan , Zhifeng Hao , José Miguel Hernández-Lobato

In this paper we review important aspects of semiparametric theory and empirical processes that arise in causal inference problems. We begin with a brief introduction to the general problem of causal inference, and go on to discuss…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-07-25 Edward H. Kennedy

We introduce computational causal inference as an interdisciplinary field across causal inference, algorithms design and numerical computing. The field aims to develop software specializing in causal inference that can analyze massive…

Computation · Statistics 2020-07-22 Jeffrey C. Wong