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To meet its commitments under the Paris Agreement and reduce its dependency on energy imports, the pace, and scale of renewable energy deployment across Europe must increase dramatically over the next decade. Such a steep change in the…

An increase in energy production from renewable energy sources is viewed as a crucial achievement in most industrialized countries. The higher variability of power production via renewables leads to a rise in ancillary service costs over…

General Finance · Quantitative Finance 2017-09-25 Mario Mureddu , Hildegard Meyer-Ortmanns

Norway's electricity market is heavily dominated by hydropower, but the 2021--2022 energy crisis and stronger integration with Continental Europe have fundamentally altered price formation, reducing the reliability of forecasting models…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-30 My Thi Diem Phan , Trung Tuyen Truong , Hoai Phuong Ha , Dat Thanh Nguyen

In this article, we investigate mismatch of renewable electricity production to demand and how this is affected by flexibility options on the supply side. We assess the impact of spatial and temporal smoothing on reliability of production…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-12-15 Aleksander Grochowicz , Fred Espen Benth , Marianne Zeyringer

Short-term electricity markets are becoming more relevant due to less-predictable renewable energy sources, attracting considerable attention from the industry. The balancing market is the closest to real-time and the most volatile among…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-14 Ciaran O'Connor , Joseph Collins , Steven Prestwich , Andrea Visentin

Renewable electricity generation has grown significantly across many European power systems, leading to a greener energy mix, but also additional complexity in balancing electricity supply and demand. Unexpected differences between…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-05-19 Arnaud Verstraeten , Maria Margarida Mascarenhas , Hussain Kazmi

Forecasting electricity prices is a challenging task and an active area of research since the 1990s and the deregulation of the traditionally monopolistic and government-controlled power sectors. Although it aims at predicting both spot and…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-07-23 Katarzyna Maciejowska , Bartosz Uniejewski , Rafał Weron

Monitoring and modelling the power grid frequency is key to ensuring stability in the electrical power system. Many tools exist to investigate the detailed deterministic dynamics and especially the bulk behaviour of the frequency. However,…

Physics and Society · Physics 2021-05-04 Leonardo Rydin Gorjão , Luigi Vanfretti , Dirk Witthaut , Christian Beck , Benjamin Schäfer

Recently, chance-constrained stochastic electricity market designs have been proposed to address the shortcomings of scenario-based stochastic market designs. In particular, the use of chance-constrained market-clearing avoids trading off…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-06-14 Alvaro Gonzalez-Castellanos , Anton Hinneck , Robert Mieth , David Pozo , Yury Dvorkin

We study day-ahead bidding strategies for wind farm operators under a one-price balancing scheme, prevalent in European electricity markets. In this setting, the profit-maximising strategy becomes an all-or-nothing strategy, aiming to take…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-06-30 Max Bruninx , Timothy Verstraeten , Jalal Kazempour , Jan Helsen

The presence of variable renewable energy resources with uncertain outputs in day-ahead electricity markets results in additional balancing needs in real-time. Addressing those needs cost-effectively and reliably within a competitive market…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-01-23 Elina Spyrou , Qiwei Zhang , Robin B. Hytowitz , Ben F. Hobbs , Siddharth Tyagi , Mengmeng Cai , Michael Blonsky

The availability of historical data related to electricity day-ahead prices and to the underlying price formation process is limited. In addition, the electricity market in Europe is facing a rapid transformation, which limits the…

Applications · Statistics 2023-06-27 Raffaele Sgarlato

The exponential growth of renewable energy capacity has brought much uncertainty to electricity prices and to electricity generation. To address this challenge, the energy exchanges have been developing further trading possibilities,…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2022-05-24 Michał Narajewski

With increasing penetration of variable renewable energy sources (vRES) and a higher rate of electrification in the society, there will be future challenges in maintaining a continuous balance between electricity supply and demand. To…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-07-12 Henrik Nordström , Lennart Söder , Robert Eriksson

Single imbalance pricing provides an incentive to balance responsible parties (BRPs) to intentionally introduce power schedule deviations in order to reduce the control area imbalance and receive a remuneration through the imbalance…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-03-27 Johannes Lips , Boyana Georgieva , Dominik Schlipf , Hendrik Lens

Considering that the existing setup of the European electricity markets promotes the spatial coordination of neighbouring power systems only on the day-ahead market stage, regional system operators have to rely mainly on their internal…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2015-03-03 Stefanos Delikaraoglou , Pierre Pinson , Robert Eriksson , Tilman Weckesser

With the increasing integration of power plants into the frequency-regulation markets, the importance of optimal trading has grown substantially. This paper conducts an in-depth analysis of their optimal trading behavior in sequential…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2023-10-30 Saeed Nordin , Abolfazl Khodadadi , Priyanka Shinde , Evelin Blom , Mohammad Reza Hesamzadeh , Lennart Söder

Electricity price forecasting has become a critical tool for decision-making in energy markets, particularly as the increasing penetration of renewable energy introduces greater volatility and uncertainty. Historically, research in this…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-11-11 Ciaran O'Connor , Mohamed Bahloul , Steven Prestwich , Andrea Visentin

The power-grid frequency reflects the balance between electricity supply and demand. Measuring the frequency and its variations allows monitoring of the power balance in the system and, thus, the grid stability. In addition, gaining insight…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2023-09-01 Xinyi Wen , Mehrnaz Anvari , Leonardo Rydin Gorjao , G. Cigdem Yalcin , Veit Hagenmeyer , Benjamin Schafer

Keeping the electricity production in balance with the actual demand is becoming a difficult and expensive task in spite of an involvement of experienced human operators. This is due to the increasing complexity of the electric power grid…

Applications · Statistics 2019-02-05 Tárik S. Salem , Karan Kathuria , Heri Ramampiaro , Helge Langseth
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