Related papers: Inform: From Compartmental Models to Stochastic Bo…
Two stochastic models are proposed to describe the evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic. In the first model the population is partitioned into four compartments: susceptible $S$, infected $I$, removed $R$ and dead people $D$. In order to have…
In order to model an epidemic, different approaches can be adopted. Mainly, the deterministic approach and the stochastic one. Recently, a large amount of literature has been published using the two approaches. The aim of this paper is to…
Compartmental epidemic models have been widely used for predicting the course of epidemics, from estimating the basic reproduction number to guiding intervention policies. Studies commonly acknowledge these models' assumptions but less…
We propose a novel approach that integrates machine learning into compartmental disease modeling to predict the progression of COVID-19. Our model is explainable by design as it explicitly shows how different compartments evolve and it uses…
Compartmental models are widely adopted to describe and predict the spreading of infectious diseases. The unknown parameters of such models need to be estimated from the data. Furthermore, when some of the model variables are not…
We propose a compartmental model for epidemiology wherein the population is split into groups with either comply or refuse to comply with protocols designed to slow the spread of a disease. Parallel to the disease spread, we assume that…
The aim of the paper is to describe a model of the development of the Covid-19 contamination of the population of a country or a region. For this purpose a special branching process with two types of individuals is considered. This model is…
Deterministic compartmental models have been used extensively in modeling epidemic propagation. These models are required to fit available data and numerical procedures are often implemented to this end. But not every model architecture is…
The goal of this article is to analyze some compartmental models specially designed to model the spread of a disease whose transmission has the same features as COVID-19. The major contributions of this article are: (1) Rigorously find…
We demonstrate an approach to replicate and forecast the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) pandemic using the toolkit of probabilistic programming languages (PPLs). Our goal is to study the impact of various modeling assumptions and…
Classical compartmental models in epidemiology often assume a homogeneous population for simplicity, which neglects the inherent heterogeneity among individuals. This assumption frequently leads to inaccurate predictions when applied to…
The aim of the paper is to describe two models of Covid-19 infection dynamics. For this purpose a special class of branching processes with two types of individuals is considered. These models are intended to use only the observed daily…
The COVID-19 pandemic has led to significant changes in how people are currently living their lives. To determine how to best reduce the effects of the pandemic and start reopening societies, governments have drawn insights from…
Consider stochastic models for the spread of an infection in a structured community, where this structured community is itself described by a random network model. Some common network models and transmission models are defined and large…
Compartmental models are valuable tools for investigating infectious diseases. Researchers building such models typically begin with a simple structure where compartments correspond to individuals with different epidemiological statuses,…
A stochastic epidemic model is defined in which each individual belongs to a household, a secondary grouping (typically school or workplace) and also the community as a whole. Moreover, infectious contacts take place in these three settings…
Epidemic models are used to analyze the progression or outcome of an epidemic under different control policies like vaccinations, quarantines, lockdowns, use of face-masks, pharmaceutical interventions, etc. When these models accurately…
Computational models for the simulation of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) epidemic evolution would be extremely useful to support authorities in designing healthcare policies and lockdown measures to…
Compartmental models have long served as important tools in mathematical epidemiology, with their usefulness highlighted by the recent COVID-19 pandemic. However, most of the classical models fail to account for certain features of this…
Inferring how an epidemic will progress and what actions to take when presented with limited information is of critical importance for epidemiologists and health professionals. In real world settings, epidemiology data can be scarce or…