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This paper proposes a novel method to estimate individualised treatment assignment rules. The method is designed to find rules that are stochastic, reflecting uncertainty in estimation of an assignment rule and about its welfare…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-02-22 Toru Kitagawa , Hugo Lopez , Jeff Rowley

Randomized controlled trials are the gold standard for evaluating the efficacy of an intervention. However, there is often a trade-off between selecting the most scientifically relevant primary endpoint versus a less relevant, but more…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-12 Jack M. Wolf , Joseph S. Koopmeiners , David M. Vock

Understanding and inferencing Heterogeneous Treatment Effects (HTE) and Conditional Average Treatment Effects (CATE) are vital for developing personalized treatment recommendations. Many state-of-the-art approaches achieve inspiring…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-08-28 Chan Hsu , Jun-Ting Wu , Yihuang Kang

Dynamic treatment regimens (DTRs) aim at tailoring individualized sequential treatment rules that maximize cumulative beneficial outcomes by accommodating patients' heterogeneity in decision-making. For many chronic diseases including type…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-04-23 Mochuan Liu , Yuanjia Wang , Haoda Fu , Donglin Zeng

This study proposes a novel framework based on the RuleFit method to estimate Heterogeneous Treatment Effect (HTE) in a randomized clinical trial. To achieve this, we adopted S-learner of the metaalgorithm for our proposed framework. The…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-07-28 Mayu Hiraishi , Ke Wan , Kensuke Tanioka , Hiroshi Yadohisa , Toshio Shimokawa

Machine learning methods for estimating heterogeneous treatment effects (HTE) facilitate large-scale personalized decision-making across various domains such as healthcare, policy making, education, and more. Current machine learning…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-25 Disha Makhija , Joydeep Ghosh , Yejin Kim

Optimal treatment regimes (OTR) are individualised treatment assignment strategies that identify a medical treatment as optimal given all background information available on the individual. We discuss Bayes optimal treatment regimes…

We propose a framework that aligns Conditional Average Treatment Effect (CATE) estimation with profit maximization. Our method recognizes that, for customers with extreme treatment effects, additional estimation accuracy is unlikely to…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-04-21 Artem Timoshenko , Caio Waisman

A treatment regime formalizes personalized medicine as a function from individual patient characteristics to a recommended treatment. A high-quality treatment regime can improve patient outcomes while reducing cost, resource consumption,…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-04-30 Yichi Zhang , Eric B. Laber , Anastasios Tsiatis , Marie Davidian

Public policies and medical interventions often involve dynamic treatment assignments, in which individuals receive a sequence of interventions over multiple stages. We study the statistical learning of optimal dynamic treatment regimes…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-21 Shosei Sakaguchi

Matching is a widely used causal inference design that aims to approximate a randomized experiment using observational data by forming matched sets of treated and control units based on similarities in their covariates. Ideally, treated…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-06 Jianan Zhu , Jeffrey Zhang , Zijian Guo , Siyu Heng

When to initiate treatment on patients is an important problem in many medical studies such as AIDS and cancer. In this article, we formulate the treatment initiation time problem for time-to-event data and propose an optimal individualized…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-09-30 Xin Chen , Rui Song , Jiajia Zhang , Swann Arp Adams , Liuquan Sun , Wenbin Lu

Treatment effect heterogeneity occurs when individual characteristics influence the effect of a treatment. We propose a novel approach that combines prognostic score matching and conditional inference trees to characterize effect…

Non-adherence to assigned treatment is common in randomised controlled trials (RCTs). Recently, there has been an increased interest in estimating causal effects of treatment received, for example the so-called local average treatment…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-12-05 Karla DiazOrdaz , James Carpenter

Identifying optimal medical treatments to improve survival has long been a critical goal of pharmacoepidemiology. Traditionally, we use an average treatment effect measure to compare outcomes between treatment plans. However, new methods…

We study the problem of a decision maker who must provide the best possible treatment recommendation based on an experiment. The desirability of the outcome distribution resulting from the policy recommendation is measured through a…

Econometrics · Economics 2022-04-06 Anders Bredahl Kock , David Preinerstorfer , Bezirgen Veliyev

Observational studies have recently received significant attention from the machine learning community due to the increasingly available non-experimental observational data and the limitations of the experimental studies, such as…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-01-26 Vinod Kumar Chauhan , Soheila Molaei , Marzia Hoque Tania , Anshul Thakur , Tingting Zhu , David A. Clifton

There are a number of available methods for selecting whom to prioritize for treatment, including ones based on treatment effect estimation, risk scoring, and hand-crafted rules. We propose rank-weighted average treatment effect (RATE)…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-11-30 Steve Yadlowsky , Scott Fleming , Nigam Shah , Emma Brunskill , Stefan Wager

Optimal treatment rules are mappings from individual patient characteristics to tailored treatment assignments that maximize mean outcomes. In this work, we introduce a conditional potential benefit (CPB) metric that measures the expected…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-08-29 Alexander W. Levis , Eli Ben-Michael , Edward H. Kennedy

Doctors use statistics to advance medical knowledge; we use a medical analogy to introduce statistical inference "from scratch" and to highlight an improvement. Your doctor, perhaps implicitly, predicts the effectiveness of a treatment for…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-11-29 Keli Liu , Xiao-Li Meng