Related papers: A new framework for calibrating COVID-19 SEIR mode…
Deterministic compartmental models are predominantly used in the modeling of infectious diseases, though stochastic models are considered more realistic, yet are complicated to estimate due to missing data. In this paper we present a novel…
The varying-coefficient model is an important nonparametric statistical model that allows us to examine how the effects of covariates vary with exposure variables. When the number of covariates is big, the issue of variable selection…
Exploring the spatio-temporal variations of COVID-19 transmission and its potential determinants could provide a deeper understanding of the dynamics of disease spread. This study aims to investigate the spatio-temporal spread of COVID-19…
In this research paper we modify a classical SIR model to better adapt to the dynamics of COVID-19, that is we propose the heterogeneous SQAIRD model where COVID-19 spreads over a population of economic agents, namely: the elderly, adults…
We frequently encounter multiple series that are temporally correlated in our surroundings, such as EEG data to examine alterations in brain activity or sensors to monitor body movements. Segmentation of multivariate time series data is a…
Computational models for the simulation of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) epidemic evolution would be extremely useful to support authorities in designing healthcare policies and lockdown measures to…
We investigate model assessment and selection in a changing environment, by synthesizing datasets from both the current time period and historical epochs. To tackle unknown and potentially arbitrary temporal distribution shift, we develop…
Let S,I and R be susceptible, infected and recovered populations in a city affected by an epidemic. The SIR model of Lee, Liu, Tembine, Li and Osher, \emph{SIAM J. Appl. Math.},~81, 190--207, 2021 of the spatiotemoral spread of epidemics is…
This paper investigates the identifiability of a spatial mathematical model of the spread of fast-moving epidemics based on the law of acting masses and diffusion processes. The research algorithm is based on global methods of Sobol…
Rapid and accurate detection of community outbreaks is critical to address the threat of resurgent waves of COVID-19. A practical challenge in outbreak detection is balancing accuracy vs. speed. In particular, while estimation accuracy…
Traditional spatio-temporal models for areal data typically begin with spatial structure imposed at the level of random effects and later extend to include temporal dynamics. We propose an alternative hierarchical modeling framework that…
Here we propose and implement a generalized mathematical model to find the time evolution of population in infectious diseases and apply the model to study the recent COVID-19 pandemic. Our model at the core is a non-local generalization of…
Faced with the 2020 SARS-CoV2 epidemic, public health officials have been seeking models that could be used to predict not only the number of new cases but also the levels of hospitalisation, critical care and deaths. In this paper we…
Since December 2019, A novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) has been breaking out in China, which can cause respiratory diseases and severe pneumonia. Mathematical and empirical models relying on the epidemic situation scale for forecasting…
Compartmental models are a tool commonly used in epidemiology for the mathematical modelling of the spread of infectious diseases, with their most popular representative being the Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR) model and its…
Effective property prediction methods can help accelerate the search for COVID-19 antivirals either through accurate in-silico screens or by effectively guiding on-going at-scale experimental efforts. However, existing prediction tools have…
This paper deals with the problem of estimating variables in nonlinear models for the spread of disease and its application to the COVID-19 epidemic. First unconstrained methods are revisited and they are shown to correspond to the…
At the end of April 20, 2020, there were only a few new COVID-19 cases remaining in China, whereas the rest of the world had shown increases in the number of new cases. It is of extreme importance to develop an efficient statistical model…
The time-varying reproduction number ($R_t$) gives an indication of the trajectory of an infectious disease outbreak. Commonly used frameworks for inferring $R_t$ from epidemiological time series include those based on compartmental models…
Geographical and Temporal Weighted Regression (GTWR) model is an important local technique for exploring spatial heterogeneity in data relationships, as well as temporal dependence due to its high fitting capacity when it comes to real…