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As an alternative to the well-known methods of "chaining" and "bracketing" that have been developed in the study of random fields, a new method, which is based on a {\em stochastic maximal inequality} derived by using the formula for…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-08-16 Yoichi Nishiyama

Standard maximum-likelihood estimators for binary-star and exoplanet eccentricities are biased high, in the sense that the estimated eccentricity tends to be larger than the true eccentricity. As with most non-trivial observables, a simple…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2011-01-19 David W. Hogg , Adam D. Myers , Jo Bovy

This paper investigates what can be inferred about an arbitrary continuous probability distribution from a finite sample of $N$ observations drawn from it. The central finding is that the $N$ sorted sample points partition the real line…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-07-30 Urban Eriksson

Frequentists' inference often delivers point estimators associated with confidence intervals or sets for parameters of interest. Constructing the confidence intervals or sets requires understanding the sampling distributions of the point…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-10-18 Xinran Li , Peng Ding

The seminal result of Johnson and Lindenstrauss on random embeddings has been intensively studied in applied and theoretical computer science. Despite that vast body of literature, we still lack of complete understanding of statistical…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-04-13 Maciej Skorski

Randomness in scientific estimation is generally assumed to arise from unmeasured or uncontrolled factors. However, when combining subjective probability estimates, heterogeneity stemming from people's cognitive or information diversity is…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-05-28 Ville Satopää , Robin Pemantle , Lyle Ungar

Given a probability distribution P, what is the minimum amount of bits needed to store a value x sampled according to P, such that x can later be recovered (except with some small probability)? Or, what is the maximum amount of uniform…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2007-07-13 Thomas Holenstein , Renato Renner

Maximum entropy (MAXENT) method has a large number of applications in theoretical and applied machine learning, since it provides a convenient non-parametric tool for estimating unknown probabilities. The method is a major contribution of…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2020-12-18 A. E. Allahverdyan , N. H. Martirosyan

We obtain distribution-free bounds for various fundamental quantities used in probability theory by solving optimization problems that search for extreme distributions among all distributions with the same mean and dispersion. These…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2024-09-27 Pieter Kleer , Johan S. H. van Leeuwaarden , Bas Verseveldt

We use the delta method and Stein's method to derive, under regularity conditions, explicit upper bounds for the distributional distance between the distribution of the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) of a $d$-dimensional parameter and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-02-04 Andreas Anastasiou , Robert E. Gaunt

In many statistical and econometric applications, we gather individual samples from various interconnected populations that undeniably exhibit common latent structures. Utilizing a model that incorporates these latent structures for such…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-09-19 Archer Gong Zhang , Jiahua Chen

We develop a new method for generating prediction sets that combines the flexibility of conformal methods with an estimate of the conditional distribution $P_{Y \mid X}$. Existing methods, such as conformalized quantile regression and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-10-10 Vincent Plassier , Alexander Fishkov , Mohsen Guizani , Maxim Panov , Eric Moulines

This paper studies probabilistic rates of convergence for consensus+innovations type of algorithms in random, generic networks. For each node, we find a lower and also a family of upper bounds on the large deviations rate function, thus…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2022-08-11 Dragana Bajovic

The $\lambda$-exponential family generalizes the standard exponential family via a generalized convex duality motivated by optimal transport. It is the constant-curvature analogue of the exponential family from the information-geometric…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-05-07 Xiwei Tian , Ting-Kam Leonard Wong , Jiaowen Yang , Jun Zhang

The {\lambda}-exponential family has recently been proposed to generalize the exponential family. While the exponential family is well-understood and widely used, this it not the case of the {\lambda}-exponential family. However, many…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-06-21 Thomas Guilmeau , Emilie Chouzenoux , Víctor Elvira

We prove lower bounds on the error of any estimator for the mean of a real probability distribution under the knowledge that the distribution belongs to a given set. We apply these lower bounds both to parametric and nonparametric…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-03-05 Rémy Degenne , Timothée Mathieu

Flexible Bayesian models are typically constructed using limits of large parametric models with a multitude of parameters that are often uninterpretable. In this article, we offer a novel alternative by constructing an exponentially tilted…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-03-20 Abhisek Chakraborty , Anirban Bhattacharya , Debdeep Pati

The asymptotic normality of the Maximum Likelihood Estimator (MLE) is a long established result. Explicit bounds for the distributional distance between the distribution of the MLE and the normal distribution have recently been obtained for…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-09-20 Andreas Anastasiou

The notion of entropy-regularized optimal transport, also known as Sinkhorn divergence, has recently gained popularity in machine learning and statistics, as it makes feasible the use of smoothed optimal transportation distances for data…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-11-05 Jérémie Bigot , Elsa Cazelles , Nicolas Papadakis

This paper is devoted to establishing exponential bounds for the probabilities of deviation of a sample sum from its expectation, when the variables involved in the summation are obtained by sampling in a finite population according to a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-10-13 Patrice Bertail , Stephan Clémençon