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We discuss model and forecast combination in time series forecasting. A foundational Bayesian perspective based on agent opinion analysis theory defines a new framework for density forecast combination, and encompasses several existing…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-06-07 Kenichiro McAlinn , Mike West

In marine management, fish stocks are often managed on a stock-by-stock basis using single-species models. Many of these models are based upon statistical techniques and are good at assessing the current state and making short-term…

Temporal prediction is critical for making intelligent and robust decisions in complex dynamic environments. Motion prediction needs to model the inherently uncertain future which often contains multiple potential outcomes, due to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-12-10 Yichuan Charlie Tang , Ruslan Salakhutdinov

Sequential decision problems in applications such as manipulation in warehouses, multi-step meal preparation, and routing in autonomous vehicle networks often involve reasoning about uncertainty, planning over discrete modes as well as…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2019-06-24 Shushman Choudhury , Mykel J. Kochenderfer

We introduce deep Markov spatio-temporal factorization (DMSTF), a generative model for dynamical analysis of spatio-temporal data. Like other factor analysis methods, DMSTF approximates high dimensional data by a product between time…

Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) have borrowed the long context paradigm from natural language processing under the premise that feeding more history into the model improves forecast quality. But in stochastic domains, distant history…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-12 Rishi Ahuja , Kumar Prateek , Simranjit Singh , Vijay Kumar

Financial time-series forecasting is critical for maintaining economic stability, guiding informed policymaking, and promoting sustainable investment practices. However, it remains challenging due to various underlying pattern shifts. These…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-28 Zhuohang Zhu , Haodong Chen , Qiang Qu , Vera Chung

One of the fundamental challenges in realizing the potential of legged robots is generating plans to traverse challenging terrains. Control actions must be carefully selected so the robot will not crash or slip. The high dimensionality of…

Robotics · Computer Science 2022-05-24 Hersh Sanghvi , Camillo Jose Taylor

Time series (TS) modeling has come a long way from early statistical, mainly linear, approaches to the current trend in TS foundation models. With a lot of hype and industrial demand in this field, it is not always clear how much progress…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-20 Daniel Durstewitz , Christoph Jürgen Hemmer , Florian Hess , Charlotte Ricarda Doll , Lukas Eisenmann

A well-performing prediction model is vital for a recommendation system suggesting actions for energy-efficient consumer behavior. However, reliable and accurate predictions depend on informative features and a suitable model design to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-12-20 Alona Zharova , Antonia Scherz

The ever-increasing sensor service, though opening a precious path and providing a deluge of earth system data for deep-learning-oriented earth science, sadly introduce a daunting obstacle to their industrial level deployment. Concretely,…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-01-17 Hao Wu , Haomin Wen , Guibin Zhang , Yutong Xia , Yuxuan Liang , Yu Zheng , Qingsong Wen , Kun Wang

Time series forecasting (TSF) plays a critical role in decision-making for many real-world applications. Recently, LLM-based forecasters have made promising advancements. Despite their effectiveness, existing methods often lack explicit…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-04 Xiaoyu Tao , Mingyue Cheng , Ze Guo , Shuo Yu , Yaguo Liu , Qi Liu , Shijin Wang

To address the difficult problem of multi-step ahead prediction of non-parametric autoregressions, we consider a forward bootstrap approach. Employing a local constant estimator, we can analyze a general type of non-parametric time series…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-11-02 Dimitris N. Politis , Kejin Wu

In current research, machine and deep learning solutions for the classification of temporal data are shifting from single-channel datasets (univariate) to problems with multiple channels of information (multivariate). The majority of these…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-04-13 Leonardos Pantiskas , Kees Verstoep , Mark Hoogendoorn , Henri Bal

Due to the dynamics and uncertainty of the dynamic multi-objective optimization problems (DMOPs), it is difficult for algorithms to find a satisfactory solution set before the next environmental change, especially for some complex…

Neural and Evolutionary Computing · Computer Science 2022-07-12 Qingya Li , Xiangzhi Liu , Fuqiang Wang , Shuai Wang , Peng Zhang , Xiaoming Wu

In recent years, the growing availability of biomedical datasets featuring numerous longitudinal covariates has motivated the development of several multi-step methods for the dynamic prediction of survival outcomes. These methods employ…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-14 Mirko Signorelli , Sophie Retif

Dynamic feature selection (DFS) addresses budget constraints in decision-making by sequentially acquiring features for each instance, making it appealing for resource-limited scenarios. However, existing DFS methods require models…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-19 Javier Fumanal-Idocin , Raquel Fernandez-Peralta , Javier Andreu-Perez

We propose a novel approach to the problem of clustering hierarchically aggregated time-series data, which has remained an understudied problem though it has several commercial applications. We first group time series at each aggregated…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-05-30 Xing Han , Tongzheng Ren , Jing Hu , Joydeep Ghosh , Nhat Ho

Classification is one of the widely used analytical techniques in data science domain across different business to associate a pattern which contribute to the occurrence of certain event which is predicted with some likelihood. This Paper…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-05-28 Kumarjit Pathak , Jitin Kapila , Aasheesh Barvey

In this paper, we investigate dynamic feature selection within multivariate time-series scenario, a common occurrence in clinical prediction monitoring where each feature corresponds to a bio-test result. Many existing feature selection…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-31 Yutong Chen , Jiandong Gao , Ji Wu